Will be an interesting #Fed press conference. On the one hand, an essentially unchanged #FOMC statement; on the other hand, revised projections and a movement in dots (including the number of central bankers expecting at least one rate hike in 2023 increasing from 7 to 13 of 18).
Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:12- Further to this morning's UK #inflation tweet, another inflation print is above consensus estimate: May US Import prices rose 1.1% (MoM) and 11.3% (YoY). Ex oil, the increases were 0.5% and 6.3%, again significantly higher than the consensus. Renders #Fed meeting more interesting Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 15:46
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- Posted UK morning: Big event for economists and market participants today is, of course, the conclusion of the @federalreserve's policy meeting. For background,thoughts on what should happen and what's likely to happen (and they are not the same) Link @bopinion Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 12:16Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
- RT @NorthmanTrader: Must read by @elerianm highlighting how the Fed's policies are increasingly out of sync with what is the right thing to… Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 11:01
- …. and here is another indication of the same thing, this one from #China. The severity of the supply bottlenecks and related cost pressures should not be dismissed as easily as some are inclined to. #economy @WSJ https://t.co/k1yHypRRfN Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 10:46
- From @economics--"Ifo Cuts German 2021 Growth Forecast on Supply Bottlenecks"--and particularly interesting in light of the debate on the intensity and implications of the disruptions to the supply side. Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 10:41
Output will then expand by 4.3% in 2022, up from a previous forecast of 3.2%, it said in a report on Wednesday. The Ifo Institute reckons that the overall cost of the pandemic crisis for Germany’s economy amounts to 382 billion euros ($463 billion) for the period from 2020 to 2022.
- Another caricature, this one from @IntlEconomy, seeking to reflect the (quite widespread) notion that @FederalReserve policy has been captured by #markets For those who don't know International Economy, this monthly publication provides good insights on economic and policy issues https://t.co/8gfePgO8lB Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 10:06
- The big event for economists and market participants today is, of course, the conclusion of the @FederalReserve's policy meeting. For background, my thoughts on what should happen and what's likely to happen (and they are not the same) Link @bopinion #fed #fomc Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 07:41Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
- RT @economics: The Fed’s outcome-based framework exacerbates economic and financial risks and needs to be addressed now, @elerianm says (vi… Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 06:31
- Another upside #inflation surprise, this time the UK May annual CPI inflation was 2.1%, above consensus expectation and up from 1.5% in April. One inflation reading after the other has exceeded consensus expectations as the forecasting community chases actual inflation dynamics. Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 06:31
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- From the @WSJ re the @FederalReserve's announcement this afternoon. Will be interesting to see if/how the US corporate bond #markets respond to this tomorrow. #investors #investing #fed #monetarypolicy #bonds https://t.co/jNxhOi9tUk Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 21:38
- RT @carlquintanilla: “.. what we are seeing is a realignment of the investment landscape .. powered by the ability to coordinate .. through… Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 21:18
- My thoughts on why it would be a mistake to dismiss the #AMC and GameStop phenomenon as a mob of young irresponsible gamblers treating the stock market like a casino. It’s worth thinking about it broadly. Link #stockmarket #investing @bopinion $amc @reddit Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 20:48Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
- .@AMC currently up some 80% on the day as the short-squeeze deepens and more speculative buyers join All this in the midst of reporting of a huge flip by the hedge fund buyer of yesterday's issuance Meanwhile, the company is offering #investors free popcorn and movie screenings. Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 16:53
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- From the @WSJ on what I've argued are structural changes to both the supply and demand sides of the US #economy I strongly suspect they are more durable than most expect--thus the low likelihood of returning to the "new normal" of low growth...unless we get a #Fed policy mistake. https://t.co/QoWzfuWNHH Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 14:23
- Latest $AMC surge is post stock issuance. Per yesterday’s @SquawkCNBC, it reflects a twin management success: getting early control of the narrative,substituting financial resilience for dilution concerns; and targeting retail investors as part of a broader communication strategy https://t.co/y9lkfd5Cbi Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 12:27
- We shouldn’t be be surprised that the hospitality sector in particular is struggling to find workers. Covid-induced uncertainties re job security translate in lower expected earnings over time. Employers’ simple choice: hike wages significantly or face persistent staff shortages. Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 11:57
- .@WSJ on what the latest US ISM reading tells us about the #economy's imbalance between "red hot demand" and "rising costs, transportation delays and trouble hiring workers" This won't go away quickly, will translate into higher #inflation, and place further pressures on the #Fed https://t.co/Yrx8W8pavG Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 10:22
- .#Lira in #Turkey is back in the news with a new phase of sharp depreciation, including a record level Many point to renewed central bank policy uncertainty as the cause. Keep an eye also on #FX revenue challenges (eg, uncertain tourism receipts and higher prices for oil imports) https://t.co/vNNh6yArD5 Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 10:12
- RT @ProSyn: With the world trying to recover from the massive economic shock brought by COVID-19, the mishandling of the global vaccine rol… Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 09:57
- Good morning. The #inflation challenge continues to attract more media attention, including this from the @FT on "why central bankers no longer agree how to handle inflation." Link #centralbanks #economy #markets #Fed @federalreserve https://t.co/V4WFIk7vqE Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 02 Jun 2021 09:52
- RT @CNBC: "What I'm seeing suggests it's not simply transitory," says @elerianm on inflation pressures. "I worry about the Fed being late i… Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 23:06
- These remarks by #Fed Governor Lael Brainard today to the @EconClubNY highlight the central bank's dovish stance. Music to the ears of #markets with risk assets in a sweet spot: strong demand, greater corporate pricing power and an inflation-tolerant Fed Link https://t.co/dL9CASnSuo Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 20:06
It is a pleasure to join the Economic Club of New York for this discussion.1 Consumer demand is strong, vaccine coverage is expanding, and pandemic-affected sectors are reopening in fits and starts. As was the pandemic shutdown with its ebbs and flows, the reopening is without precedent, and it is generating supply–demand mismatches at the sectoral level that are temporary in nature. Separating signal from noise in the high-frequency data may be challenging for a stretch. The supply–demand mismatches at the sectoral level are making it difficult to precisely assess inflationary developments and the amount of resource slack from month to month.
Looking through the noise, I expect we will see further progress in coming months, but the economy is far from our goals, and there are risks on both sides. The best way to achieve our maximum-employment and average-inflation goals is to be steady and transparent in our outcome-based approach to monetary policy while remaining...
- One of the video clips from this morning's @SquawkCNBC conversation with @BeckyQuick. Link @CNBC #economy #markets #fed #federalreserve #inflation #investing #stocks #investments #interestrates #bonds #realestate #investment #finance #stockmarket #investors Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 19:41"What worries me is the inflation side," Mohamed El-Erian, economic advisor at Allianz and Gramercy and president at Queens College, Cambridge, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" Tuesday. "What I'm seeing suggests it's not simply transitory and the last thing we need is the Fed to slam on the breaks further down the road."
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