• 2 conclusions from the @Conferenceboard US consumer confidence index: Sentiment going from strength to strength due to improvements in both present and expected economic conditions; and The highest difference since 1990 in those responding jobs are plentiful versus hard to get
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 29 Jun 2021 15:55
  • RT @bopinion: As the Sydney lockdown against the Delta variant shows, the virus will not disappear quickly and no country can stand alone a…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 29 Jun 2021 14:19
  • This simple @WSJ chart on the evolution of the #Fed's balance sheet is a reminder of The scale of #Fed market intervention in the last 18 months; No slowing in purchases despite historically loose financial conditions; and Continued massive support for a red-hot #housing market. https://t.co/fAg8qXHBXM
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 29 Jun 2021 10:24
  • The weekly @GoldmanSachs US Financial Conditions Index eased another 12.2 basis points to 97.2. This further easing came after the #FOMC meeting which quite a few deemed "surprisingly hawkish," illustrating the power of the dovish statements that followed from top #Fed officials. https://t.co/QP8HqC1FaC
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 29 Jun 2021 08:49
  • And now this: a huge upset as gutsy #SUI prevails against devastated #FRA with the Swiss goalkeeper producing what could well be his country’s most famous penalty save. #France now joins #Netherlands and #Portugal — out of @EURO2020 much earlier than most expected. What a day! Link https://t.co/D8aZeqfp9P
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 28 Jun 2021 22:04

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  • What an absolutely amazing day of #football…and so emotionally draining. Many twists and turns, lots of goals and end-to-end excitement — first in the #cro - #esp match and now in the #fra - #sui encounter which has also gone to extra time. Such a shame that someone has to lose.
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 28 Jun 2021 21:29
  • RT @CNBC: “Every day I see more evidence of inflation not being transitory, and I have concern that the Fed is falling behind and that it m…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 28 Jun 2021 14:33
  • Good morning. FYI, thoughts on how and why the " #DeltaVariant Adds Urgency to Nations’ #Covid Response" -- both nationally and multilaterally. Link #COVIDVaccination #COVID19 #economy #markets @bopinion @markets @economics https://t.co/PGHdxfebmN
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 28 Jun 2021 08:08
    Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
  • What a great weekend of #football. Even today’s #BEL - #POR game went from rather ugly and patchy to incredibly tense and entertaining. As much as I am happy to see #Belgium go through, I do feel for #Portugal, indeed any team, that get eliminated in a game like this. @EURO2020
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 27 Jun 2021 21:08
  • As a strong first half of the year ends this week for the global #economy/#markets, look for US #jobs report Eurozone #inflation Government reactions to the spread of the #DeltaVariant (posting a @bopinion article on what this weekend's #Australia/#Israel developments tell us)
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 27 Jun 2021 19:18
  • From the @FT. #economy #markets #inflation #europe https://t.co/lzmxZ3rVff
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 27 Jun 2021 19:08
  • RT @economics: The Fed's failure to take policy actions is compounding an unnecessary risk facing the economic recovery, @elerianm says (vi…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 20:43
  • The wild ride continues in the US Treasury market (see below for the yield on the 10-year bond). It is hard to attribute this to fundamentals. Rather, it seems to be due to a combination of volatile technicals and patchy liquidity. #markets #bond @markets #economy https://t.co/JApRFyWChP
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 19:33
  • Wicked snapback in yields on US 10-year government bonds. #economy #markets #bonds https://t.co/KMxDVVOuEX
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 16:43
  • Via @bopinion , my thoughts on what to make of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting. Link #fed #economy #markets #centralbanks #bonds #interestrates #investing #investors #finance
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 16:23
    Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
  • The video link to this morning conversation with @andrewrsorkin on @SquawkCNBC Link #economy #markets @cnbc #fed @federalreserve #centralbanks
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 15:07
    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday considerably raised its expectations for inflation this year and brought forward the time frame on when it will next raise interest rates. Mohamed El-Erian, economic advisor at Allianz and Gramercy and president at Queens College, Cambridge, joined "Squawk Box" on Thursday to discuss.
  • US data update Highlighting concerns about the functioning of the US labor market, weekly US initial jobless claims rose by 37,000 to 412,000 This compares to the consensus expectation of 360,000 and breaks what had been a very encouraging string of weekly declines #economy #jobs
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 12:47
  • RT @CNBC: .@elerianm says he’s “really worried” about the risk of a Fed policy mistake. Link https://t.co/rL73fhpSVB
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 11:32
    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday considerably raised its expectations for inflation this year and brought forward the time frame on when it will next raise interest rates.However, the central bank gave no indication as to when it will begin cutting back on its aggressive bond-buying program, though Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that officials discussed the issue at the meeting.As expected, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee unanimously left its benchmark short-term borrowing rate anchored near zero.
  • From the @WSJ and illustrating the evolution of the interest rate expectations of @FederalReserve officials over the last six months. #Fed #economy #markets #centralbanks https://t.co/Qv0Al753Gs
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 10:32
  • Overall, rational market reactions to yesterday's #Fed signals, including US government bond yields with a particularly notable move in the 5-year on the shift in "dots" Equities face some pressure on the initiation of "thinking about thinking" about tapering,but nothing dramatic https://t.co/F7LNU7QWzj
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 17 Jun 2021 08:32
  • RT @NorthmanTrader: Must read by @elerianm highlighting how the Fed's policies are increasingly out of sync with what is the right thing to…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 19:12
  • Possible policy mistake by the @FederalReserve has migrated up to become one of the top risks that could undermine a durable, strong, inclusive,and sustainable economic recovery Indeed, it may be the joint top risk along with Covid virus variants that reduce vaccine effectiveness
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:47
  • And here is the link to the #Fed's projections and dots. Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:27

    In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 15-16, 2021, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2021 to 2023 and over the longer run. Each participant's projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy--including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value--and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. "Appropriate monetary policy" is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic...

  • This @cnbc headline captures well the growing disconnect between (i) the #Fed's CONVICTION on both "transitory #inflation" and that it; not being time to taper; and (ii) FOUNDATION in the form of economic forecasts (and, I would add, realites on the ground). #economy #markets https://t.co/IbSpGZMizk
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:22
  • Here;s the link to the statement: Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:17

    The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

    Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

    The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

    The Committee seeks to achieve...

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