• Saddened to learn of the passing of Paul #Volcker, the architect of many things including helping the US to overcome —and decisively put behind it—a period of destabilizing inflation. In the process, he set a path for other countries, defining the tenets of modern central banking
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 15:24
  • RT @economics: .@elerianm says he doesn't think the Fed will raise rates in 2020 Link https://t.co/1OdaQDVU5k
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 11:39
  • .@TheEconomist looks at the drivers of long-term currency out-performance. Link #economy #markets #fx https://t.co/dE55yOUKvA
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 09:14

    THE PAST decade and a half has seen boom and bust, inflation and deflation, globalisation and trade tensions. Through such economic and political cycles you might expect currencies to go in and out of fashion. In fact the two that have strengthened the most against the dollar over this period—Thailand’s baht and Israel’s shekel—have done so consistently. They have outshone other currencies over one, five and ten years, too. What explains their popularity?

    Inflation is part of the answer. Exchange rates partly reflect relative purchasing power, so a country with low inflation should see its currency strengthen against that of a country where prices are rising fast. Both Israel and Thailand have had low annual inflation: 1.4% and 2.2% respectively, on average, over the past 15 years.

  • This #BIS report is a good and important read. Among what's being picked up the most so far: the discussion (pp 12-14) on the #repo market disruptions citing market structure, balance sheet composition, QE and hedge fund activities as the main contributors Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 06:54
  • Video clip from this morning conversation with @ManusCranny and @youseftv ... on #China, #trade, the global #economy, #CentralBanks, risk mitigation and markets. Link @BloombergTV @business
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 06:39
    00:00To the market risk. Mohammed the trip laws ratcheting of tariffs rollback of tariffs a rest as we are in them are the markets underpricing the risk of a ratchet in these tariffs . Good morning . Could monuments. I think two things one is the markets have become mainly single issue and the single issue is about trade . And I think there's optimism not that we'll get a mini deal. I think we will but that that will be a stepping stone to something much bigger. The second issue is beyond the trade issue. There's a real strong tug of war going on between liquidity and favorable technicals and what remains a very sluggish global economy. So I view it as short term constructive but with major and medium term uncertainties . Well when we were earlier speaking to one of the key people at you oh v and he was making the assertion that a 60 percent likelihood that you're going to see some kind of agreement 30 percent you're going to see an escalation. But those numbers are hard to really...
  • A strong cup of coffee to minimize the effects of jet lag ahead of a conversation on Bloomberg TV with @ManusCranny and @youseftv https://t.co/OZYwL6QAP6
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 05:04
  • Remember the refrain "Japan couldn't happen here"? @markets on "Japanification is the scourge threatening to go global" Qualification, and it's important:Comprehensive pro-growth policies can offset structural drags,certainly in the US and probably Europe Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 03:54
    burst into the mainstream this year, leaving in its wake a record amount of negative-yielding debt. Quantitative easing and a low-rate regime in Europe delivered banner returns on the region’s bonds -- at the expense of bank profits and retirement savings. Many say it recalls Japan’s lost decade.

  • .@economics on how the "major #CentralBanks are set to keep pumping money into financial #markets and economies next year." Along with favorable technicals, provides continued support for financial markets...offsetting so far the drag from sluggish growth. Link https://t.co/TzgcZV3gOo
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 03:24

    The combined monthly balance-sheet expansion of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan will end this year at the highest level since 2017 as each sucks up bonds either to boost their economies or ease strains in money markets, according to Bloomberg.

  • RT @ALeipold: .?@elerianm? notes the possibility of “an era of secular de-globalization” among the longer term uncertainties. https://t.co…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 02:54
  • ...and it's an important one especially for #China and #Europe, is whether the still relatively robust domestically-oriented sectors of the economy can withstand unfavorable spillovers from continued pressures on tradeables (particularly manufacturing). #economy #markets #growth Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 02:49

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

  • An already-interesting week starts with a notable data miss: 1.1% drop in #China 's November #exports, some 2 percentage points below consensus market expectations. This should taper some's (premature) enthusiasm that the global economic slowdown is bottoming out. The question... Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 02:49

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

  • Good morning! Several reasons have been cited for why #stocks and #bonds reacted differently to Friday's US #jobs report. Here's why it matters, both for the global #economy and #markets, which prevail. Link @bopinion #investing #investors #Fed @federalreserve
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Dec 2019 02:14
    Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco, where he served as CEO and co-CIO. He is president-elect of Queens' College, Cambridge, senior adviser at Gramercy and professor of practice at Wharton. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
  • Thank you @emirates for the great 16-hour flight. Outstanding! You really do excel in so many ways: Superb service, nice plane, better food than most other airlines and a long list of movies to watch. Now for the next leg of this trip. #emirates #travel https://t.co/a7YsI6Mfok
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 08 Dec 2019 16:03
  • .@economics on the appointment by Alberto Fernández, President-Elect of #Argentina who will assume office this week, of Martin Guzman as the country's next minister of #economy. Link #economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #debt #inf #creditors #Investing @wsj
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 07 Dec 2019 15:47
  • The link to the "Behind the Markets" podcast of the conversation with Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel ... on the #economy, policies and #markets. Link #economy #markets #Wharton #Lauder #Penn @Wharton @penn @LauderInstitute
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 07 Dec 2019 15:37
  • Good morning. Wishing you all a wonderful weekend. The @WSJ's @NickTimiraos on--and I agree--why Friday's #jobs report reinforces the likelihood of the #Fed being on hold for a while and, in the lower probability scenario that it's not, cutting rates again Link https://t.co/9ousNmAJrq
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 07 Dec 2019 15:12

    Federal Reserve officials will feel comfortable maintaining their wait-and-see posture on interest rates after Friday’s report showing robust hiring in November.

    Even before the Labor Department’s report Friday, Fed officials were prepared to hold rates steady at their two-day meeting next week after having lowered their short-term benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point at their previous three meetings, most recently in October to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%.

    ...
  • .@TheEconomist lead editorial by @zannymb in the magazine’s annual look ahead edition (“The World in 2020”) starts with this rather sobering paragraph. #economy https://t.co/tIXUNvFeEt
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 07 Dec 2019 00:57
  • Next week will be fascinating with, & it's not an exhaustive list, #Fed & @ECB meetings (including Pres. @lagarde's first press conf), run-up to Dec 15 deadline for next round of US tariffs on #China, UK elections, & signals from newly-appointed top Argentine economic officials.
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Dec 2019 21:31
  • The @FT on how "the cost of borrowing cash overnight on the last day of the year has surged despite the @FederalReserve’s injection of billions of dollars into #markets in an attempt to ease strains." Link #Fed #repo #investing #investors https://t.co/CxmU74zz4Z
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Dec 2019 20:01
  • I’ve continued to stick with the divergence theme favoring the US both for the economy and #markets. Today’s data confirm this theme, not just the US jobs report but also, unfortunately, weak German industrial production (FT chart below). Time for rotation will come, but not now. https://t.co/pGO3iwItNF
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Dec 2019 18:06
  • Multifaceted strength of the US #jobs report provides more evidence of household sector underpinning the economy Extent of job creation (307,000, including revisions) is v encouraging, as is somewhat higher wage growth. Only thing missing for me: growing labor force participation
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Dec 2019 15:51
  • https://t.co/YTmGqM8oPG
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 05 Dec 2019 19:45
  • Mid-way on a cross country flight. Don’t remember ever being on such an empty plane. Flight attendants also surprised,thinking it’s a combination of a very early departure time, low season and, perhaps, concerns about the weather on both coasts. No one things it’s the economy https://t.co/IIcC5xZZL9
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 05 Dec 2019 17:40
  • Chart from today’s @WSJ highlighting the significant extent of some of the “short vol” positioning in #markets — that is, investors and traders betting on low and lower #volatility and, with that, a further strengthening of risk asset prices. https://t.co/7SYvB8A9hL
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 05 Dec 2019 11:44
  • From the @FT article this morning on the larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus package in #Japan. It amounts to almost 2% of GDP over 15 months in gross terms, half of which would be direct government spending. #economy #markets https://t.co/tgpkZYUC88
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 05 Dec 2019 10:59
S&P500
VIX
Eurostoxx50
FTSE100
Nikkei 225
TNX (UST10y)
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
BTCUSD
Gold spot
Brent
Copper
Last update . Delayed by 15 mins. Prices from Yahoo!