• Despite another intervention by the @NewYorkFed ,repo rate is again above the target range. Immediate cause:Excess demand for cash post intervention.This can be solved. More worrisome:structural underpinnings and concern that the Fed is less effective in reading market technicals Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Sep 2019 13:10

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  • What has moved #markets on recent #Fed days has had less to do with WHAT the Fed delivers and more with HOW it does so (framing of the policy issues, forward guidance, etc). This is likely to be the case again today. (Lost in all this: the declining direct impact on the #economy)
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Sep 2019 12:15
  • Speaking of the #Fed, the #FOMC announcement comes in a few hours after 2-day of policy deliberations. Most are looking for a 25 bps cut--not that this will please most commentators who are quite polarized on what the Fed should do as it finds itself in a shrinking policy corner.
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Sep 2019 11:15
  • GM @FT on "the deep cracks in the repo market" that is causing @NewYorkFed intervention, injecting $75 billion in the money markets today. It did so yesterday, for the first time in a decade. With repo rates still unusually high, it's doing so again today. Link https://t.co/Q4T3RrVUNX
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Sep 2019 11:05
  • RT @ProSyn: In 2011, @elerianm called for better national policymaking in Europe & the US, as well as urgent & deep reform of the multilate…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Sep 2019 00:55
  • Thank you @FerroTV , thank you very much. We need all the support, solidarity and sympathy we can get. What a total #Jets debacle. To make things even worse, and they are terrible enough already sportswise, the @Mets also lost.... @nyjets Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Sep 2019 12:34

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  • What struck me most during this #UK trip: Informed and admired political commentators found it hard to specify a baseline for #Brexit. Some even said they no longer had any baseline whatsoever. Truly remarkable for such an influential issue in a country with admired institutions.
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Sep 2019 11:04
  • Ahead of the 2-day #FOMC policy meeting that starts today, @NickTimiraos on why " #Fed officials are making policy decisions one meeting at a time—attempting to provide enough stimulus to keep the #economy expanding without promising too much." Link #markets https://t.co/6o7UchWVQ3
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Sep 2019 10:54

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is leading his colleagues to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at their meeting this week, for the second time in as many months, to cushion the U.S. economy against a slowdown from the U.S.-China trade war and weak growth abroad.

    But Fed officials are unlikely to signal plans for a series of rate cuts because trade policy is out of their hands and difficult to predict. It has lurched between escalation and detente in recent weeks. Trade isn’t the only geopolitical wild card: So are...

  • Interesting tug-of-war this European morning in the #oil #markets: Aramco cautioning against a quick and full restoration of output vs inventories being released and the initial fear of an immediate regional escalation of hostilities receeding somewhat on US government comments. https://t.co/W9iq6Qrr7Y
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Sep 2019 08:24
  • .#Bloomberg on latest revisions in #Swiss #growth. Speaks to a bigger structural issue that's turning conventional wisdom on its head: It used to be a material advantage to be a small open economy on the edge of a large economic area. That's not the case any more,at least for now https://t.co/O7f1hKXyHF
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Sep 2019 07:29
  • From today’s @FT: “Parts of #WallStreet’s securitisation engine are running at levels not seen since the pre-financial crisis boom” (e.g., in CDO- and CMBS-land)...powered by #investors fleeing “tumbling #yields on many traditional ”haven” #bonds to ultra-low or negative levels.” https://t.co/quqzuG7PXD
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Sep 2019 06:49
  • Good morning! Ushered out several times, and for good reason, this entrepreneurial pigeon apparently makes a habit of finding a way to come back in for breakfast day after day! https://t.co/pJRYNuLqIK
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Sep 2019 06:39
  • RT @IntlEconomy: A #currencywar could well be the next stage for a world heading towards greater economic fragmentation, losing economic mo…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 19:53
  • Books shortlisted for the @FT - @McKinsey Business Book of the Year A wonderful set of interesting, important, timely and engaging publications Congratulations to the authors, as well as those who wrote the remaining books on the long list Winner to be announced ion Dec 3 #bbya19 https://t.co/E3mW9Q0jQY
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 13:23
  • The jury met this morning to discuss the long list for this year’s @FT - @McKinsey Business Book of the Year award. The short list will be announced in a couple of hours. #BBYA19 https://t.co/86ES1xwNao
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 09:58
  • Via the @FT: based on what they say/publish, “emerging market #CentralBanks have turned more dovish than at any point since the global financial crisis.” While a weaker global #economy contributes to this, the main driver is the ultra loose @ECB/#Fed policies. #Em #centralbanks https://t.co/mYOh2q1qBx
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 07:47
  • .@WSJ's @MattWirz looks at developments in the lower-rated segments of the corporate bond/loan #markets to assess the extent to which "warning signals are starting to flash" about "companies with high debt loads." Link #Economy #HY #junk #investing #investors https://t.co/2FZHm8qnyy
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 06:12

    Warning signals are starting to flash in the market for junk debt, an indicator that investors are worried that companies with high debt loads could be at risk even if the U.S. economy avoids recession.

    The current change in sentiment is modest compared with the one that hit high-yield bonds in December. But it continued through a recent surge in demand for Treasurys and investment-grade corporate debt. The combined trends expose cracks in the recent rally that has powered the Dow Jones Industrial Average to within 0.6% of...

  • From #Bloomberg re today’s miss on #China industrial output.Highlights a policy dilemma for policymakers there:at a time of growing external headwinds to growth,domestic stimulus measures are proving both less effective in the immediate &more inconsistent with longer-term reforms https://t.co/xJsJ5BnJDd
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 05:27
  • The #oil disruption has displaced for now what otherwise would be dominating the financial news: this week's #Fed meeting. Disruption makes things a little easier in the immediate for #Chair Powell by reducing opposition to any cut.But it complicates longer-term policy challenges
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 05:07
  • Even more difficult for markets to price well is the broader assessment of the underlying geo-political risk. #economy #markets #oil Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 04:37

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  • As you’d expect, quite a morning for the #oil #markets in #Asia. Opening some 20% higher, prices retreated and are now up around 10% on the day. The immediate price impact of the oil production cut, the length of which is uncertain, is being partially offset by inventory releases https://t.co/SMMRmgxt6Y
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Sep 2019 04:37
  • Re the potential impact on the global #economy, much depends of course on the extent and duration of what in economic terms would start out as a supply shock. China and Europe are most exposed among systemically-important areas, with the US trialing due to energy self-sufficiency Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 15 Sep 2019 19:37

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  • Not sure where to start when it comes to the upcoming week for #markets/global #economy. So much to digest,even before mentioning the #oil markets. E.g., several central bank meetings (including the #Fed), data, and the next steps in both #Brexit saga and China-US trade conflict.
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 15 Sep 2019 18:12
  • .#Oil #markets reaction to this weekend's attack on #SaudiArabia production facilities depend on the short-term impact on production and the degree of re-assessment of geo-political risk Re 1, #Aramco expects to restore about 1/3 by late Monday. Re 2, markets were already lagging
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 15 Sep 2019 17:57
  • Very little beats #Cambridge, including when it comes to beauty and charm — and particularly on such a near-perfect weather day. @yourscambridge @Cambridge_Uni @QueensCam https://t.co/pdosmt0pzS
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 15 Sep 2019 17:47
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