RT @CNBC: "What I'm seeing suggests it's not simply transitory," says @elerianm on inflation pressures. "I worry about the Fed being late i…
Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 14:01- A big thanks to @BeckyQuick for an interesting conversation, and to all members of the @SquawkCNBC and @Nasdaq teams. Wonderful to be in the same building again. Hopefully, it will soon be the same set too. @JoeSquawk @andrewrsorkin @CNBC Link https://t.co/1lupFb6UEA Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 12:31
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- RT @bopinion: Treasury yields defied the PCE data on Friday, but markets did not act irrationally, @elerianm says. Here's why https://t.co/… Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 12:26
- Wonderful to be back at the Nasdaq Market Site. Looking forward to the conversation with Andrew, Becky and Joe on Squawk Box. @SquawkCNBC @JoeSquawk @BeckyQuick @andrewrsorkin @CNBC #markets #economy https://t.co/dP2xQccRGE Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 11:51
- Just like the #CPI data before them, Friday's #PCE data for the US came in hotter-than-anticipated. Yet yields on US government #bonds fell, again defying historical experience and standard academic expectations. Here's why: Link @bopinion #economy #markets https://t.co/pV03Go1jaf Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 10:51
Markets did not act irrationally. Instead, it was a reminder that traders and investors have been conditioned to believe that the central bank will maintain ultra-loose monetary policy almost regardless of what’s going on in the economy.
- Open the @FT's home page and you'll find these three headlines. They illustrate the growing debate about the nature of the ongoing rise in #inflation. For now, #markets are comforted--and respect--the #Fed's insistence that inflation is #transitory and requires no policy change. https://t.co/k9mOpAQZJw Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 10:25
- RT @ProSyn: According to IMF research, an additional $50 billion in funding for global vaccination efforts would yield $9 trillion in econo… Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 10:25
- The positive market tone continues this early US morning with stock futures up 0.4-0.5% and yields and the #dollar well behaved (as #China looks to moderate its currency's appreciation). #Oil is among the notable individual movers with prices up 2% (@markets chart below for WTI). https://t.co/zdHjeJKb5X Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 01 Jun 2021 10:10
- The @WSJ's @jmackin2 on "How to Know When #Inflation Is Here to Stay." He points to "the labor force, consumer demand and inflation expectations." Could also add pricing power and other input costs Link #economy #markets #centralbanks #fed #investing #investors https://t.co/Ki9jdsD7Ur Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 31 May 2021 15:50
Inflation is here already, and in the long run there is a lot of upward pressure on prices. But between now and then lies a big question for investors and the economy: Is the Federal Reserve right to think that the price rises we’re seeing now are temporary and will abate by next year?
Some at the Fed are already having vague doubts, starting to talk about when to discuss removing some of their extraordinary stimulus even as they continue to push the idea that inflation is likely to fall back of its own accord.
The argument that inflation is temporary is simple. Consumer demand has been boosted massively by stimulus and the reopening release of pent-up demand. Supply is unable to keep up thanks to inventories and capabilities run down when demand collapsed during lockdown, workers unwilling to return to work and the overhang of Covid-19 restrictions on production. As a result, there are some extraordinary price ramps in narrow areas, such as used cars, that...
- Does this remind you of the co-dependency relationship that has developed between #centralbanks and #markets? It’s not easy for me to walk away from the pup. That’s one interpretation. The other is that I am at her beck and call! #economy https://t.co/xEdE9akUoh Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 31 May 2021 14:45
- Ahead of Friday's monthly US #jobs report, the media is full of reports detailing widespread labor shortages, especially in the service sector. The cause is often attributed to "generous" unemployment benefits But, as detailed here, reality is more complex Link https://t.co/Q36TGyeUwh Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 31 May 2021 14:00
- Latest #OECD Economic Outlook reiterates the two messages that have emerged from other multilateral organizations The recovery is stronger than projected earlier (that's good); Growth dispersion is pronounced (less good), especially in the developing world Link https://t.co/0mWeAVZsAi Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 31 May 2021 13:45
Prospects for the world economy have brightened but this is no ordinary recovery. It is likely to remain uneven and dependent on the effectiveness of vaccination programmes and public health policies. Some countries are recovering much faster than others. Korea and the United States are reaching pre-pandemic per capita income levels after about 18 months. Much of Europe is expected to take nearly 3 years to recover. In Mexico and South Africa, it could take between 3 and 5 years.
- Good morning. I can think of quite a few captions for this. #NewYorkCity https://t.co/tN1NTGj3YZ Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 31 May 2021 11:55
- Via the @FT's @GaryRSilverman and @JamesPoliti: "US regulators signal bigger role in #cryptocurrencies market." Link #cryptocurrency #crypto #CryptoNews #cryptotrading #BTC #bitcoin #Ethereum #markets #ft https://t.co/cO1dIoozCe Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 30 May 2021 23:49
- From @TheEconomist article on the expected surge in corporate capital spending Positive for enhancing #productivity and #growth Also highlights the importance of demand management: Less ultra-loose monetary policy making room for higher investment at a time of booming consumption https://t.co/AJYVIyiR8J Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 30 May 2021 14:54
- This is even more valid today than it was yesterday. There are additional indicators of greater inflationary pressures in the pipeline; and the #Fed policy remarks just reaffirmed that it still is not “thinking about thinking” about easing its foot off the stimulus accelerator. Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 29 Apr 2021 13:37
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- Re data: A slight miss for US Q-1 #GDP: 6.4% versus an expected 6.7%. Consumption and business spending were both very strong. They were offset by declining exports and GDI. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 553,000, a slight fall. 10-year yields eased by 1 bp on the news. Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 29 Apr 2021 12:42
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- Ahead of some notable US economic data, the move up in yields continues. With this morning's move, the rise in yields this week now amounts to 10 basis points for 10-year US government #bonds. #markets #economy https://t.co/x3cIgvj2Iv Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 29 Apr 2021 12:32
- The @WSJ's take on the key takeaways from President #Biden’s Address to Congress. In terms of economic policy, it's much more than persistent "go big" measures. It's an attempt at a significant shift in the policy approach underpinned by a sweeping agenda. Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 29 Apr 2021 10:27
On the eve of his 100th day in office, President Biden touted his achievements so far and laid out his legislative priorities in a joint address to Congress, stressing the need for massive federal investments in infrastructure, child care and education, paid for by higher taxes on the wealthy.
Here are some key takeaways from the speech:
- In his powerfully engaging way, Ian Bremmer talks about the major geopolitical issues in today's fluid world. A huge thanks to Ian and to the MCR of Queens'? College, Cambridge for such an interesting Angevin Talk. Link @QueensCam @ianbremmer Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 28 Apr 2021 21:46
- Just-released @Facebook quarterly earnings confirm what the @Google's numbers suggested yesterday: A small minority of companies can be a "stay-at-home" AND a "re-opening" play. It sure helps them that they are mostly immune from supply chain bottlenecks and higher input prices. Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 28 Apr 2021 20:16
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- RT @LaMonicaBuzz: Bubble trouble? @elerianm talked to @ChristineRomans about that today on the @CNNBusiness Markets Now show ICYMI. https:/… Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 28 Apr 2021 19:21
- Responding to a @YahooFinance question on financial stability, #Fed Chair #Powell refers to “froth” in the equity market but notes that overall financial stability situation is “mixed.” Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 28 Apr 2021 19:16
- The link to the just-issued #FOMC statement. As expected, the @FederalReserve improved its economic outlook and kept its policy stance as is. The press statement with Chair Jerome #Powell will be starting soon. Link #economy #markets #fed #centralbanks Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 28 Apr 2021 18:11
- Commodity prices are higher again today, more companies signal higher input costs with growing probability of price pass-throughs, and market expectations of #inflation continue to increase to levels not seen for almost ten years. Yet the #Fed will continue to downplay inflation. https://t.co/Uy5LFo6kVQ Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 28 Apr 2021 16:16
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