The July 2021 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the second quarter of 2021. Regarding loans to businesses, respondents to the July survey, on balance, reported easier standards and stronger demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the second quarter.2 For commercial real estate (CRE), standards on multifamily and construction and land development loans eased, while standards on loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties remained basically unchanged. Banks reported stronger demand for all CRE loan categories. For loans to households, banks eased standards across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans, on net, and reported stronger demand for most types of RRE loans over the second quarter. Banks also eased standards and reported...

1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 3.48% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.47% as of July 25, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.74 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 1.79%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 4.30%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 6 basis points to 7.44%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 1 basis point to 3.67%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 2 basis points to 3.59%. “Forbearance exits remained low, and there was another increase in new forbearance requests, particularly for Ginnie Mae and portfolio and PLS loans....

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. Considering recently updated forbearance expiration timelines announced by FHFA, FHA, VA, and USDA, this month’s report looks at the impact of the many varying allowable forbearance periods. According to Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, due to the complexity of the expiration matrices across different agencies, the operational challenge mortgage servicers were already facing this fall has been compounded even more. “Prior to the agencies issuing clarifying guidance on allowable forbearance periods, some 950,000 plans were set to expire over the final six months of the year – representing about half of all loans in forbearance,” said Graboske. “That estimate assumed a blanket 18-month maximum allowable forbearance period. However, now we have detailed...

Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases - almost back to the level of a year ago - although still well below a normal rate for July.

Construction spending during June 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,552.2 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised May estimate of $1,551.2 billion. The June figure is 8.2 percent above the June 2020 estimate of $1,435.0 billion. emphasis added

conomic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in July, with the overall economy notching a 14th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The July Manufacturing PMI® registered 59.5 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the June reading of 60.6 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 14th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 64.9 percent, decreasing 1.1 percentage points from the June reading of 66 percent. The Production Index registered 58.4 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points compared to the June reading of 60.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 85.7 percent, down 6.4 percentage points compared to the June figure of 92.1 percent, which was the...

Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. The 7-day average is down 20.1% from the same day in 2019 (79.9% of 2019).  (Dashed line) There was a slow increase from the bottom starting in May 2020 - and then TSA data picked up in 2021 - but has mostly sideways over the last few of weeks.

“Inflation is not going to be transitory,” the chief economic adviser at Allianz SE said in an interview on Bloomberg TV’s The Open show ... “I have a whole list of companies that have announced price increases, that have told us they expect further price increases, and that they expect them to stick,” El-Erian said.

1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met (even if late).

1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met (even if late).

Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, a demographic wave of households aging into prime homeownership years continues to swell, and despite showing some signs of bottoming, the number of available homes for sale remains historically small, particularly given the elevated demand for housing. Prices have skyrocketed as a result, and price growth continues to set new record highs. What’s more, despite sharply rising prices, demand for homes remains very strong. Bidding wars for the relatively few houses available remain common and homes are going under contract at an increasingly fast pace. Inventory upticks in recent weeks suggest that a respite from these red-hot market conditions may be starting to form. But a return to a balanced market remains a long way off, and there are few, if any, signs that home price appreciation will start to subside anytime soon. Monthly and annual growth in May as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from April and Mary 2020 in all...

KUDOS to the residents of the 16 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maryland, California, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia and D.C. are all over 70%. Next up are Delaware at 69.8%, Minnesota at 69.7%, Colorado at 69.6%, Oregon at 69.4%, Wisconsin at 65.2%, Nebraska at 65.1%, and Florida at 64.3%. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. This data is from the CDC.

In 2020, with the pandemic, inventory dropped to record lows, and prices really increased (record low mortgage rates and demographics were factors too). I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market. Click on graph for larger image. This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (inverted, from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through March 2021).

Here is the post earlier on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 14.6% year-over-year in April It has been fifteen years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release today, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 35% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 5% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is still 3% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year growth in prices increased to 14.6% nationally. Usually people graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be over $301,000 today adjusted for inflation (50%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this...

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 14.6% annual gain in April, up from 13.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.4%, up from 12.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 14.9% year-over-year gain, up from 13.4% in the previous month. Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in April. Phoenix led the way with a 22.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 21.6% increase and Seattle with a 20.2% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2021 versus the year ending March 2021. ... Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.9% and 2.1% respectively in April. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index...

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 3.93% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.91% as of June 20, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 2.02%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 5.13%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 1 basis point to 7.97%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 2 basis points to 4.03%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers declined 2 basis points to 4.14%. “The share of loans in forbearance declined for the 17th straight week, with small declines across almost every loan category,” said Mike Fratantoni,...

KUDOS to the residents of the 16 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maryland, California, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia and D.C. are all over 70%. Next up are Delaware at 69.8%, Minnesota at 69.7%, Colorado at 69.5%, Oregon at 69.4%, Wisconsin at 65.2%, Nebraska at 65.0%, and Florida at 64.3%. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. This data is from the CDC.