The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. This data is as of June 27th. The seven day average is down 23.7% from the same day in 2019 (76.3% of 2019).  (Dashed line) There was a slow increase from the bottom - and TSA data has picked up in 2021.

KUDOS to the residents of the 16 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maryland, California, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia and D.C. are all over 70%. Next up are Delaware at 69.7%, Minnesota at 69.6%, Colorado at 69.4%, Oregon at 69.4%, Wisconsin at 65.1%, Nebraska at 64.8%, and Florida at 64.0%. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. This data is from the CDC.

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.78 million in May, down 1.2% from April’s preliminary pace but up 44.1% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. Local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 22.4% from last May. CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release May existing home sales on Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.74 million SAAR.

The key for housing in 2021 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in house prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.

KUDOS to the residents of the 15 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, California, New Hampshire, Maryland, Washington, New York, Illinois and D.C. are all over 70%. Next up are Virginia at 69.5%, Minnesota at 68.9%, Delaware at 68.6%, Colorado at 68.3%, Oregon at 68.3% and Wisconsin at 64.3%. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. This data is from the CDC.

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy.  For for the entire state of Rhode Island: Closed sales (single family and condos) in May 2021 were 1,081, up 21.4% from 890 in May 2020. Active Listings (single family and condos) in May 2021 were 1,143, down 62.4% from 3,036 in May 2020. Inventory in May was down 25% from last month.

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019. The occupancy rate is down 10.3% compared to the same week in 2019. Leisure (weekend) occupancy has recovered, but weekday (more business) is still down double digits.

NOTE: This graph uses the Vintage 2019 estimates. There are questions about these estimates, and we will have much better data when the 2020 Decennial Census data is released. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the longer term trend for three key age groups: 20 to 29, 25 to 34, and 30 to 39 (the groups overlap). This graph is from 1990 to 2060 (all data from BLS: current to 2060 is projected). We can see the surge in the 20 to 29 age group last decade (red).  Once this group exceeded the peak in earlier periods, there was an increase in apartment construction.  This age group peaked in 2018 / 2019 (until the 2030s), and the 25 to 34 age group (orange, dashed) will peak around 2023.   For buying, the 30 to 39 age group (blue) is important (note: see Demographics and Behavior for some reasons for changing behavior).  The population in this age group is increasing, and will increase further over this decade. The current demographics are...

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"): 1) Overall sales were at 9,127 in May, up 33.0% from 6,860 in May 2020. 2) Active inventory was at 5,218, down 54.3% from 11,418 in May 2020. 3) Months of supply decreased to 1.05 in May from 2.46 in May 2020. This is very low. Inventory in May was up 14.9% from last month.

In the week ending June 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 412,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 376,000 to 375,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 402,500 to 403,000. emphasis added

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy.  For the entire state of Alabama: Closed sales in May 2021 were 6,936, up 27.6% from 5,434 in May 2020. Active Listings in May 2021 were 9,363, down 45.1% from 17,042 in May 2020. Months of Supply was 1.3 Months in May 2021, compared to 3.1 Months in May 2020. Inventory in May was down 2.3% from last month.

KUDOS to the residents of the 14 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, California, New Hampshire, Maryland, Washington, New York and D.C. are all over 70%. Next up are Illinois at 69.7%, Virginia at 69.5%, Minnesota at 68.8%, Delaware at 68.4%, Colorado at 68.2%, Oregon at 68.2% and Wisconsin at 64.2%. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. This data is from the CDC.

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As people reenter the labor force - pushing up the participation rate - the improvement in the unemployment rate will likely slow. The unemployment rate was revised up slightly for 2021. ###

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus....

After months of breakneck market competition, California home sales moderated in May as buyer fatigue set in, while the median home price set another record high, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 445,660 in May, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. May home sales dipped 2.7 percent on a monthly basis from 458,170 in April and up 86.7 percent from a year ago, when 238,740 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The sharp yearly sales jump was expected as the housing market was hit hard by the pandemic shutdown last...

Low mortgage rates and limited existing home inventory have given a boost to single family housing starts. The first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2020 (blue) and 2021 (red).  Click on graph for larger image. Starts were up 50.3% in May compared to May 2020.  The year-over-year comparison will be easy again in June, but will be more difficult starting in July. 2020 was off to a strong start before the pandemic, and with low interest rates, and little competing existing home inventory, starts finished 2020 strong.  

Housing Starts: Privately?owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,572,000. This is 3.6 percent above the revised April estimate of 1,517,000 and is 50.3 percent above the May 2020 rate of 1,046,000. Single?family housing starts in May were at a rate of 1,098,000; this is 4.2 percent above the revised April figure of 1,054,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 465,000. Building Permits: Privately?owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,681,000. This is 3.0 percent below the revised April rate of 1,733,000, but is 34.9 percent above the May 2020 rate of 1,246,000. Single?family authorizations in May were at a rate of 1,130,000; this is 1.6 percent below the revised April figure of 1,148,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 494,000 in May. emphasis added

Mortgage applications increased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 11, 2021. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday. ... The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage applications bounced back after three weeks of declines, increasing over 4 percent last week. Both purchase and refinance applications were up, including a 5.5 percent gain in refinances. The jump in refinances was the result of the 30-year fixed rate falling for the third straight week to 3.11 percent – the lowest since early May. U.S. Treasury...

Three months ago, from Jann Swanson at MortgageNewsDaily: Fannie Warns Lenders on Investment Properties and 2nd Homes. This action will result in higher interest rates on 2nd home and investment property mortgages. I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and will track those markets to see if there is an impact from the lending changes. This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through May 2021, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12 month average). Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Click on graph for larger image. Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak. Note that inventory was high while prices were declining - and significantly lower inventory in 2012 suggested the bust was over.  (Tracking inventory helped me call the bottom for housing way...

KUDOS to the residents of the 14 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, California, New Hampshire, Maryland, Washington, New York and D.C. are all over 70%. Next up are Illinois at 69.7%, Virginia at 69.3%, Minnesota at 68.7%, Delaware at 68.4%, Colorado at 68.0%, Oregon at 68.0% and Wisconsin at 64.2%. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. This data is from the CDC.