After last week’s not unexpected increase, our McDash Flash daily mortgage performance dataset shows the number of active forbearance plans has declined by 71,000 since last Tuesday, continuing a trend of strong early month declines. As of August 3, 1.82 million homeowners remain in COVID-19-related forbearance plans, representing 3.4% of all active mortgages, including 2.0% of GSE, 6.0% of FHA/VA and 4.2% of loans held in bank portfolio and private securitizations. Improvement was seen across the board. FHA/VA saw the greatest reduction with a 36,000 (-4.8%) decline in active plans. The number of GSE loans in forbearance fell by 18,000 (-3.2%) from the week prior and portfolio/PLS saw a 17,000 (-3%) decline. That puts the number of active plans down 131,000 (-6.7%) from the same time last month, a slightly slower rate of improvement than in recent weeks. It’s less a slowdown in improvement than an indication of the stronger than average declines we saw last month as the...

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The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up significantly.   The participation rate increased slightly and the unemployment rate decreased sharply to 5.4%.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 943,000 in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in local government education, and in professional and business services. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 31,000, from +583,000 to +614,000, and the change for June was revised up by 88,000, from +850,000 to +938,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported. emphasis added

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1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).

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Sales slumped in April and May 2020, so the year-over-year (YoY) increases were large for April and May this year.   However, starting in June 2020, sales increased sharply, so sales are now down YoY.

Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the 14th month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI® registered another all-time high of 64.1 percent, which is 4 percentage points higher than the June reading of 60.1 and eclipses the previous record of 64 percent in May 2021. The July reading indicates the 14th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 138 months. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 72 percent, up 3.5 percentage points from June’s reading of 68.5 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and...

The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 14.75 million SAAR in July 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 4.1% from the June sales rate, and up 0.3% from July 2020. 

Mortgage applications decreased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 30, 2021. ... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Interest rates drifted lower globally last week, as markets assessed the latest concerns regarding the delta variant. 30-year mortgage rates dropped below 3 percent in our survey for the first time since this February, presenting an opportunity for many homeowners who have not yet refinanced to lower their rate and their payments. Refinance application volume slightly decreased, following an 11 percent jump last week,” said Mike...

Private sector employment increased by 330,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “The labor market recovery continues to exhibit uneven progress, but progress nonetheless. July payroll data reports a marked slowdown from the second quarter pace in jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “For the fifth straight month the leisure and hospitality sector is the fastest growing industry, though gains have softened. The slowdown in the recovery has also impacted companies of all sizes. Bottlenecks in hiring continue to hold back stronger gains, particularly in light of new COVID-19...

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1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).

There were supply constraints over the last year, for example, sawmills cut production and inventory at the beginning of the pandemic, and the West Coast fires in 2020 damaged privately-owned timberland.  

It was an interesting juxtaposition to see a Fed speaker talking about tapering being announced as early as September while bond yields hit the 3pm close at the lowest levels since February. Headwinds are definitely present, whether we're talking about tapering risk or simply the selling opportunity presented by such low yields at a time when the economy may soon suggest a bounce. But tailwinds remain because that suggestion has yet to be made. ... [30 year fixed 2.80%] emphasis added

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit . The report shows that total household debt increased by $313 billion (2.1%) to $14.96 trillion in the second quarter of 2021. The total debt balance is now $812 billion higher than at the end of 2019. The 2.1% increase in aggregate balances was the largest seen since Q4 2013 and marked the largest nominal increase in debt balances since Q2 2007. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative random sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—rose by $282 billion and stood at $10.44 trillion at the end of June. Credit card balances started to tick back up, increasing by $17 billion in the second quarter. Despite the increase, credit card balances were still $140 billion...

CoreLogic® ... released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for June 2021. Despite the economic ups and downs brought on by the pandemic, the housing market is still going strong. As supply and demand pressures endure and construction costs spike, in June, home price gains reached the highest annual growth since 1979. While affordability challenges intensify, low mortgage rates, rising savings and an improving labor market are helping to keep homeownership within reach for many prospective buyers. However, CoreLogic projects home price gains may slow over the next 12 months as demand moderates and for-sale inventory rises. “Home prices have been rising in the mid-single digits for some years now. The recent surge to double-digit price jumps reflect the convergence of exceptional demand and persistent low supply,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “With plenty of cash on the sidelines, along with very low mortgage rates, prices are heading...