• Goldman July Payrolls Preview Link "we believe education seasonality could boost July payroll growth by as much as 500-750k"
    Bill McBride Thu 06 Aug 2020 20:49
    We estimate nonfarm payroll growth slowed to +1.0mn in July after +4.8mn in June (consensus is +1.5mn). ... we believe education seasonality could boost July payroll growth by as much as 500-750k … We estimate the unemployment rate declined by 0.4pp to 10.7% emphasis added
  • COVID Update: Aug 6, OC, CA (my home) Record deaths today (32) ?? Hospitalizations are falling. July 2nd close bars, indoor restaurants July 13th close gyms, barbershops, etc. Progress, but still above pre-surge levels. Link https://t.co/NntDBmspQt
    Bill McBride Thu 06 Aug 2020 20:04

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  • “the most important piece of information to watch in Friday’s report is the response rate! ... June’s was 63.1%, below the recent rate of 70%. If the number of missing establishments reflects a proportionate number of jobs, a 4% miss could be over 5 million jobs.” Link
    Bill McBride Thu 06 Aug 2020 16:59

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  • July Employment Preview Link I'll take the over on government jobs added, but the under on private sector jobs (consensus is 1.47 million private sector - and possibly even a negative private sector number).
    Bill McBride Thu 06 Aug 2020 15:44

    On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 1.58 million non-farm payroll jobs (+1.47 million private sector), and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 10.5%. The usual indicators are somewhat useless again this month due to the ongoing pandemic.   Some states are opening up, while others have closed bars, indoor restaurants, and some other businesses.   In states with rising cases, economic activity appears to have flattened or declined in July. The ADP employment report showed a gain of 167,000 private sector jobs, far below the consensus estimate of 1.5 million jobs. The ISM manufacturing employment index increased in July to 44.3% from 42.1% in June, but still well below 50.   This would suggest around 50,000 manufacturing jobs lost in July - although ADP showed 10,000 manufacturing jobs added. The ISM Services employment index increased in July to 42.1% from 43.1% in...

  • NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Decreased in Q2 2020, Marking First Decline Since 2014" Link https://t.co/xWzIlf2p1N
    Bill McBride Thu 06 Aug 2020 15:14
    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt decreased by $34 billion (0.2%) to $14.27 trillion in second quarter of 2020. This marks the first decline since the second quarter of 2014 and is the largest decline since the second quarter of 2013. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. This latest report reflects consumer credit data as of June 30, 2020. Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—rose by $63 billion in the second quarter to $9.78 trillion. Mortgage originations, which include mortgage refinances, reached $846 billion, the highest volume seen since the refinance boom in 2013. Origination credit scores for mortgages increased notably in the second quarter...
  • Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales up 4% YoY, Inventory down 35% YoY Link
    Bill McBride Thu 06 Aug 2020 14:14
    LVR reported a total of 4,025 existing local homes, condos and townhomes were sold during July. Compared to the same time last year, July sales were up 5.3% for homes, but down 3.3% for condos and townhomes. Sales were up significantly from the previous month. ... By the end of July, LVR reported 4,806 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s down 38.4% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,581 properties listed without offers in July represented a 15.2% drop from one year ago. … Despite the coronavirus crisis, the number of so-called distressed sales in July remained near historically low levels. The association reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 1.2% of all existing local property sales in July. That compares to 2.0% of all sales one year ago, 2.9% two years ago and 6.4% three years ago. emphasis added
  • Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,186,000 Link https://t.co/gO7lfWdYXq
    Bill McBride Thu 06 Aug 2020 12:39
    In the week ending August 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,186,000, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 1,434,000 to 1,435,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,337,750, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 1,368,500 to 1,368,750. emphasis added
  • RT @COVID19Tracking: There are widespread problems right now in the top-level data. In different ways, California and Florida have had trou…
    Bill McBride Wed 05 Aug 2020 22:43
  • Here is notice in California today: "The California Department of Public Health is currently working to resolve the issue but may result in a lower number of Daily COVID Positive Cases Received and Tests Reported Today." Link
    Bill McBride Wed 05 Aug 2020 22:38

    Posted Date: 8/5/2020

    The new ArcGIS data platform (see Desktop, Mobile & Map Buttons below) improves the COVID-19 reporting process and minimizes any discrepancy between State and Orange County information by reporting same day information. The 6 a.m. State data are downloaded from CalREDIE each morning, checked to remove duplicates and/or out-of-county residents and then reported to our website by 5 p.m.

    NOTES: The CalREDIE Electronic Laboratory Reporting system is experiencing issues with the application that receives test reports from laboratories and then sends them to CalREDIE.  The California Department of Public Health is currently working to resolve the issue but may result in a lower number of Daily COVID Positive Cases Received and Tests Reported Today.

  • August 5 COVID-19 Test Results Link The number of tests per day has been declining. It is not clear if this is a testing problem or a reporting problem. https://t.co/LxZ822ZEUM
    Bill McBride Wed 05 Aug 2020 22:28

    The number of tests per day has been declining. It is not clear if this is a testing problem or a reporting problem. The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 664,219 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 51,825 positive tests. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. Click on graph for larger image. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 7.5% (red line). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

  • The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales Link https://t.co/cC2kHnkSJ4
    Bill McBride Wed 05 Aug 2020 17:38

    The relatively low gasoline prices made me take another look at the mix of vehicles being sold. This graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through July 2020. Click on graph for larger image. Over time the mix has changed toward more and more towards light trucks and SUVs. Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse. The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 76% in July 2020.

  • ISM Services Index increased to 58.1% in July, Employment Index Declined Link https://t.co/EjQ3NtnqTr
    Bill McBride Wed 05 Aug 2020 14:13
    July 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 67.2%; New Orders Index at 67.7%; Employment Index at 42.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 55.2% Economic activity in the Services sector (formally non-manufacturing sector) grew in July for the second month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: "The Services PMI™ registered 58.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the June reading of 57.1 percent. This reading represents growth in the services sector for the second straight month after contraction in April and May, preceded by a 122-month period of expansion. "The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.2 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from June's reading of 57.5 percent. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report...
  • Trade Deficit decreased to $50.7 Billion in June Link https://t.co/symHqHujan
    Bill McBride Wed 05 Aug 2020 12:43
    The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.7 billion in June, down $4.1 billion from $54.8 billion in May, revised. June exports were $158.3 billion, $13.6 billion more than May exports. June imports were $208.9 billion, $9.5 billion more than May imports. emphasis added
  • ADP: Private Employment increased 167,000 in July Link
    Bill McBride Wed 05 Aug 2020 12:23
    Private sector employment increased by 167,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “The labor market recovery slowed in the month of July,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We have seen the slowdown impact businesses across all sizes and sectors.”
  • MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey Link https://t.co/9shSdXnhBM
    Bill McBride Wed 05 Aug 2020 11:33
    Mortgage applications decreased 5.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 31, 2020. ... The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 84 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates dropped to another record low last week, falling below the previous record set three weeks ago to 3.14 percent. Refinance activity decreased – despite the decline in rates – but the current pace remains more than 80 percent higher than a year ago when rates were over 4 percent. MBA’s forecast calls for rates to remain at these low levels, which will continue to spur strong refinance activity and offer homeowners relief...
  • RT @COVID19Tracking: Our daily update is published. States reported 696k tests and 52k cases. This marks the first time since July 13 that…
    Bill McBride Tue 04 Aug 2020 22:17
  • July 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Increased to 65 Institutions Link
    Bill McBride Tue 04 Aug 2020 17:37

    The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public. CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources only, and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same is subject to...

  • July NFP and Temp Decennial workers: The Census hired 27.5 thousand temp workers between the reference week in June and the reference week in July. From 22,931 in June to 50,404 in July. This will boost NFP in July. Link
    Bill McBride Tue 04 Aug 2020 15:07

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  • Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 81% Year-over-year Link https://t.co/TP7iq8Bps6
    Bill McBride Tue 04 Aug 2020 15:02

    Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices are up 81% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through July 31, 2020 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. Right now Random Lengths prices are up 81% from a year ago, and CME futures are up 60% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Prices fell sharply due to COVID-19, however prices have roared back (Note: Construction was considered an essential activity in many areas, so construction didn't decline as much as some other sectors). This is the highest price for Random Lengths lumber, and futures are just below the previous record set in 2018.

  • BEA: July Vehicles Sales increased to 14.5 Million SAAR Link https://t.co/ken3GTIYX0
    Bill McBride Tue 04 Aug 2020 14:02

    The BEA released their estimate of July vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated light vehicle sales of 14.52 million SAAR in July 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 11.1% from the June sales rate, and down 14.4% from July 2019. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July 2020 (red). The impact of COVID-19 is significant, and it appears April was the worst month. Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 14.4% from last year. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 14.52 million SAAR. Light vehicle sales in 2020, to date, total 7.66 million (NSA), down 21.9% from the same period in 2019 with sales of 9.80 million through July (NSA).

  • CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.9% Year-over-year in June Link
    Bill McBride Tue 04 Aug 2020 12:37
    Nationally, home prices increased by 4.9% in June 2020, compared with June 2019. Month over month, home prices increased 1%, compared with May of this year, the fastest monthly gain for the month of June since 2013. CoreLogic’s HPI forecast predicts a modest decline in home prices over the twelve months ending June 2021. A sign of a solid foundation and resiliency in the housing market in the face of the pandemic, stronger home prices this summer reflect improved affordability, demographic demands, supply constraints and continued strong interest in purchasing a home. These factors combined to keep home prices steady despite the continued pressure of the pandemic and related economic fall-out. “Mortgage rates hit record lows this spring, which enhanced affordability for home buyers,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “First-time buyers, and millennials in particular, have jumped at the opportunity to achieve homeownership.” “Home price appreciation...
  • U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue to Fight Their Way Back in July Link (pay site) 14.5 million SAAR in July (BEA will report tomorrow). Consensus was 13.1 million SAAR.
    Bill McBride Mon 03 Aug 2020 23:21

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  • August 3 COVID-19 Test Results Link https://t.co/BwW89Mtyoh
    Bill McBride Mon 03 Aug 2020 22:05

    The US is now reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 731,690 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 49,561 positive tests. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. Click on graph for larger image. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.8% (red line). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

  • MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 7.67%" of Portfolio Volume Link Note: This is as of July 26th. The report next week (through Aug 2nd) might show some impact from the delay of the disaster relief package. https://t.co/P84N9YHDUA
    Bill McBride Mon 03 Aug 2020 20:00
    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 7.74% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.67% as of July 26, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.8 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. ... “The share of loans in forbearance declined, but we are now seeing a notable pattern developing over the past two weeks. The forbearance share is decreasing for GSE loans but has slightly increased for Ginnie Mae loans,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The job market has cooled somewhat over the past few weeks, with layoffs increasing and other indications that the economic rebound may be losing some steam because of the rising COVID-19 cases throughout the country. It is therefore not surprising to see this situation first impact the Ginnie Mae segment of the market.” Added Fratantoni, “The higher...
  • Goldman on vaccine: "The rise in global case growth suggests that economic recovery will remain challenging until a vaccine becomes widely available. ... we expect that [a] large share of the US population will be vaccinated by the end of 2021Q2."
    Bill McBride Mon 03 Aug 2020 18:15
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