• Goldman: "Following the stronger-than-expected retail sales report, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 1pp at +4.5% (qoq ar)."
    Bill McBride Thu 16 Sep 2021 15:56
  • Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 13.6% Compared to Same Week in 2019 Link The comparison to 2019 was difficult this week due to the timing of Labor Day. https://t.co/pVdoN42Cfs
    Bill McBride Thu 16 Sep 2021 15:16
    The comparison to 2019 was difficult this week due to the timing of Labor Day.  Last week the occupancy rate was unchanged year-over-year.  If we average the last two weeks, occupancy is down about 7% compared to the same two weeks in 2019.
  • Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in August Link https://t.co/zGvyxr21o4
    Bill McBride Thu 16 Sep 2021 12:51
    Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $618.7 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and 15.1 percent above August 2020 ... The June 2021 to July 2021 percent change was revised from down 1.1 percent to down 1.8 percent. emphasis added
  • Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 332,000 Link https://t.co/FfddeoeBba
    Bill McBride Thu 16 Sep 2021 12:41
    In the week ending September 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 332,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 310,000 to 312,000. The 4-week moving average was 335,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 339,500 to 340,000. emphasis added
  • September 15th COVID-19: 2,000 Deaths Reported Today, Most since February Link https://t.co/U8mm9eiukR
    Bill McBride Wed 15 Sep 2021 21:25
    1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.
  • LA Area Port Traffic: Solid Imports, Weak Exports in August Link https://t.co/5tyKg8MA4m
    Bill McBride Wed 15 Sep 2021 18:40

    Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. Also, incoming port traffic is backed up significantly in the LA area with around 50 ships at anchor waiting to unload. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. Click on graph for larger image. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 0.1% in August...

  • Another 5 Local Housing Markets in August Link Active inventory, new listings and sales added for Boston, Des Moines, Jacksonville, Minnesota, South Carolina https://t.co/bW5vNGt5lt
    Bill McBride Wed 15 Sep 2021 14:55

    Note: Additions are in BOLD in tables.

    I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. (this update makes 20 so far for August).

    Some are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year, especially active inventory and new listings.

    I’ll update this table throughout the month as additional data is released. This note adds Boston, Des Moines, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and South Carolina.

    Note that inventory is up year-over-year (YoY) in Sacramento, one of the few local markets with a YoY inventory increase.

    Here is a summary of active listings for the first 20 housing markets released for August. So far inventory is down 1.9% in August month-over-month (MoM) from July, and down 29.8% YoY.

    Note: Denver is not included in the totals (included in Colorado).

    And here is a table for new listings in August. So far new listing are down 1.7% YoY. However, not all areas report new...

  • Industrial Production Increased 0.4 Percent in August Link https://t.co/z9wW1FtkoG
    Bill McBride Wed 15 Sep 2021 13:25
    Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in August after moving up 0.8 percent in July. Late-month shutdowns related to Hurricane Ida held down the gain in industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage point. Although the hurricane forced plant closures for petrochemicals, plastic resins, and petroleum refining, overall manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent. Mining production fell 0.6 percent, reflecting hurricane-induced disruptions to oil and gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The output of utilities increased 3.3 percent, as unseasonably warm temperatures boosted demand for air conditioning. At 101.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in August was 5.9 percent above its year-earlier level and 0.3 percent above its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.2 percentage point in August to 76.4 percent, a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average. emphasis added
  • MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey Link https://t.co/vR0rLXemoV
    Bill McBride Wed 15 Sep 2021 12:20
    Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 10, 2021. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. ... The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Purchase applications – after adjusting for the impact of Labor Day – increased over 7 percent last week to their highest level since April 2021. Compared to the same week last September, which was right in the middle of a significant upswing in home purchases, applications were down 11 percent – the smallest year-over-year decline in 14 weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s...
  • September 14th COVID-19: Almost 1 Million Doses per Day Link https://t.co/KiPp76BYBI
    Bill McBride Tue 14 Sep 2021 23:54
    1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.
  • House Price to Median Income Link New income data for 2020 from Census today.
    Bill McBride Tue 14 Sep 2021 16:34
  • Cleveland Fed: Key Measures of Inflation in August Link https://t.co/G5viL3FGQF
    Bill McBride Tue 14 Sep 2021 15:49

    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for July here. "Car and truck rental" were down 65% annualized (reversing some of the previous increase). Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

  • Early Look at 2022 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base Link my current guess is COLA will probably be around 5.8% this year ... the contribution base next year will increase to around $148,200 in 2022 https://t.co/ayhVzSlF3N
    Bill McBride Tue 14 Sep 2021 14:23
    The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 5.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 268.387 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
  • BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in August, Core CPI increased 0.1% Link
    Bill McBride Tue 14 Sep 2021 12:33
    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The indexes for gasoline, household furnishings and operations, food, and shelter all rose in August and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The energy index increased 2.0 percent, mainly due to a 2.8-percent increase in the gasoline index. The index for food rose 0.4 percent, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing 0.4 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, its smallest increase since February 2021. Along with the indexes for household operations and shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, recreation, and medical care also rose in August. The indexes for airline fares, used...
  • Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 9% Compared to Same Week in 2019 Link https://t.co/I9jmZezTjG
    Bill McBride Thu 26 Aug 2021 14:17

    Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019. The occupancy rate is down 9.1% compared to the same week in 2019.

  • Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 353,000 Link https://t.co/0xnCygQhml
    Bill McBride Thu 26 Aug 2021 12:42
    In the week ending August 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 348,000 to 349,000. The 4-week moving average was 366,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 377,750 to 378,000. emphasis added
  • Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 6.6% Annual Rate Link PCE growth was revised up from 11.8% to 11.9%. Residential investment was revised down from -9.8% to -11.5%. This was slightly below the consensus forecast.
    Bill McBride Thu 26 Aug 2021 12:37
    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.6 percent in the second quarter of 2021, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.5 percent. The update reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down emphasis added
  • RT @RickPalaciosJr: Comment from today's $TOL call captures mood for housing currently. Market's still quite strong, but not every market g…
    Bill McBride Wed 25 Aug 2021 23:26
  • COVID Cases https://t.co/hE60lVDuQn
    Bill McBride Wed 25 Aug 2021 20:21
  • August 25th COVID-19: 7-Day Average New Cases Highest Since January Link https://t.co/phaEBp3SD6
    Bill McBride Wed 25 Aug 2021 20:21
    On daily deaths: There were over 1,100 deaths reported today. In early July, the 7-day average for daily COVID deaths was around 190.  Since then, the 7-day average of daily deaths has more than quadrupled, and since deaths lag hospitalizations, it seems likely average daily deaths will increase to over 1,000 per day.  Be careful.
  • Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 46 States in July Link https://t.co/pjrIXmBiCk
    Bill McBride Wed 25 Aug 2021 15:36
    The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for July 2021. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 48 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 94. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 90. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 1.9 percent over the past three months and 0.8 percent in July. emphasis added
  • REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey July 2021: "Demand is cooling in a moderately strong market" Link Here are demand maps for July and April. https://t.co/oextY6KydG
    Bill McBride Wed 25 Aug 2021 14:16
    Several metrics indicate that demand is cooling in a moderately strong market. With limited supply in the market, homes typically sold within 17 days (22 days one year ago). The REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased further from 71 in June to 64 in July (moderately strong conditions) while the REALTORS® Seller Traffic Index remains below 50 which is “weak” traffic compared to the level one year ago. On average, a home sold had more than 4 offers, for which remains unchanged from last month’s survey. REALTORS® expect home prices in the next three months to increase nearly 2% from one year ago compared to 4% outlook in last month’s survey. Respondents expect sales in the next three months to decrease 1% from last year’s sales level compared to the 1% outlook in last month’s survey. emphasis added
  • Goldman on Q2 GDP (2nd release tomorrow): "We also left our past-quarter tracking estimate for Q2 unchanged at +7.1% ahead of tomorrow’s GDP revision (consensus +6.7%, advance release +6.5%)."
    Bill McBride Wed 25 Aug 2021 14:05
  • MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey Link https://t.co/blHg66iBHb
    Bill McBride Wed 25 Aug 2021 12:00
    Mortgage applications increased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 20, 2021. ... The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Treasury yields fell last week, as investors continue to anxiously monitor if the rise in COVID-19 cases in several states starts to dampen economic activity. Mortgage rates slightly declined as a result, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing for the first time in three weeks. Lower rates led to an increase in refinance applications, with government loan applications jumping 10 percent to the highest level since May 2021,” said Joel...
  • Goldman: "... growth is set to slow substantially over the next year from its recent very rapid pace globally, and especially in the US."
    Bill McBride Wed 25 Aug 2021 01:35
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