I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. For Portland, OR: Closed sales in July 2021 were 3,439, up 1.4% from 3,391 in July 2020. Active Residential Listings in July 2021 were 3,180, down 23.1% from 4,133 in July 2020. Months of Supply was 0.9 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.2 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 16.8% from last month, and up 65.5% from the record low in March 2021.

Five months ago, from Jann Swanson at MortgageNewsDaily: Fannie Warns Lenders on Investment Properties and 2nd Homes.  I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and will track those markets to see if there is an impact from the lending changes. This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through July 2021, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12 month average). Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Click on graph for larger image. Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak. Note that inventory was high while prices were declining - and significantly lower inventory in 2012 suggested the bust was over.  (Tracking inventory helped me call the bottom for housing way back in February 2012, see:The Housing Bottom is Here) Currently inventory is still very...

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the GAMLS for Atlanta: Total Residential Units Sold in July 2021 were 9,683, down 5.7% from 10,270 in July 2020. Active Residential Listings in July 2021 were 8,668, down 43.9% from 15,442 in July 2020. Months of Supply was 0.99 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.00 Months in July 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Georgia MLS shows inventory in Atlanta over the last several years - and the sharp decline in inventory at the start of the pandemic. Inventory in Atlanta in July was up 11.3% from the previous month, and was 24.5% above the record low in April 2021.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 3.47% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.40% as of August 1, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 1.74%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 12 basis points to 4.18%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 7 basis points to 7.37%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 4 basis points to 3.63%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 10 basis points to 3.49%. “Forbearance exits increased as August began and new forbearance requests declined, resulting in the largest decrease in the share of loans in...

1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).

"The decline in single-family REO properties in the first half of 2021 compared with the first half of 2020 was due to the suspension of foreclosures that began in March 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In response to the pandemic and with instruction from FHFA, we have prohibited our servicers from completing foreclosures on our single-family loans through July 31, 2021, except in the case of vacant or abandoned properties." emphasis added

Condos and Townhomes sold in July 2021 were 834, up 9.3% from 763 in July 2020. Combined, sales were down 16.0% year-over-year. Single Family Active Listings in July 2021 were 11,105, down 31.4% from 16,177 in July 2020. 

Key question: Usually inventory peaks in the Summer, and then declines into the Fall.  Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern, or will inventory continue to increase over the coming months?  This will be important to watch for house prices and housing activity.  

The number of job openings increased to a series high of 10.1 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires rose to 6.7 million and total separations edged up to 5.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to 2.7 percent. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 0.9 percent, matching the series low reached last month. emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. The 7-day average is down 21.7% from the same day in 2019 (78.3% of 2019).  (Dashed line) There was a slow increase from the bottom starting in May 2020 - and then TSA data picked up in 2021 - but the dashed line has mostly sideways over the last six weeks.

1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).

The Dodge Momentum Index fell to 155.8 (2000=100) in July, a 6% decline from the revised June reading of 164.9. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Both components of the Momentum Index fell in July. Commercial planning fell 3%, while institutional planning dropped 9%. The Momentum Index posted strong gains through much of the winter and spring as the economy and building markets began to stabilize following the recession. While the economy has continued its forward progress through the summer, the Index has regressed somewhat as higher material prices and shortages of skilled labor continue to exert a strong influence over the construction sector. Despite the declines in June and July, the Momentum Index remains near levels last seen in 2018. Compared to a...

1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Jobs openings increased in May to 9.209 million from 9.193 million in April. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 69% year-over-year, and Quits were up 63% year-over-year.

1 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).

A report released Friday by Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR) shows local home prices passing the $400,000 mark for the first time while demand continues to outpace supply. ... LVR reported a total of 4,225 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during July. Compared to one year ago, July sales were up 0.8% for homes and up 24.7% for condos and townhomes. So far this year, local home sales are on pace to exceed last year’s total and surpass the last post-recession high of 38,153 in 2011. … By the end of July, LVR reported 3,007 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. Although down 37.4% from the same time last year, Martinez noted the number of homes listed without offers actually increased for the fifth straight month – “indicators of the market fighting with all its might to normalize, but consumer consumption continues to remain strong.” For condos and townhomes, the 662 properties listed without offers in July were more than were listed during the...

U.S. rail traffic in July 2021 was up over July 2020, but for most commodity categories the percentage increase was significantly lower than in other recent months, both because of more difficult comparisons and because various external factors have led to a recent deceleration in rail volumes. In July, total U.S. carloads were up 6.6% over July 2020 and down 13.3% from July 2019. emphasis added