- August 14th COVID-19: Over 70,000 Hospitalized Today, Over 800 Deaths Link Note: Changed first two goals to likely minimum herd immunity. https://t.co/qle87SyrTr
Bill McBride Sat 14 Aug 2021 22:26Experts currently think we need somewhere between 70% and 85% of the total population fully vaccinated to achieve "herd immunity". Vermont has the highest percentage of fully vaccinated at 67.0% - so there is a long way to go.
- I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. Jacksonville Real Estate in July: Sales Down 16% YoY, Inventory Down 40% YoY Link Bill McBride Sat 14 Aug 2021 13:56
I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®: Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 3,149, down 16.2% from 3,759 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 4,668, down 40.6% from 7,852 in July 2020. Months of Supply was 1.4 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.8 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 1.8% from the previous month, and up 7.1% from the record low in May 2021.
- Schedule for Week of August 15, 2021 Link The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Retail sales. For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report will be released. The BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision. Bill McBride Sat 14 Aug 2021 12:31
The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Retail sales. For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report will be released. The BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision.
- RT @odetakushi: Went to see a house today that had been listed < 24 hours prior. When I arrived, my agent told me there were already 2 **am… Bill McBride Sat 14 Aug 2021 00:35
- August 13th COVID-19: Over 140,000 New Cases Reported Today Link Congratulations to the residents of California and Pennsylvania on joining the 80% club! Go for 90%!!! (80% of adults have had at least one shot). https://t.co/I4Jqyz5duR Bill McBride Fri 13 Aug 2021 21:351 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).
- Santa Clara Real Estate in July: Sales Up 29% YoY, Inventory Down 7% YoY Link Inventory in July was up 3.0% from the previous month, and up 58.4% from the record low in December 2020. Bill McBride Fri 13 Aug 2021 17:05
I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Santa Clara Realtors (includes San Jose): Closed sales (single family and condos) in July 2021 were 1,783, up 29.4% from 1,378. in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 1,820, down 6.7% from 1,9501 in July 2020. (1estimate) Inventory in July was up 3.0% from the previous month, and up 58.4% from the record low in December 2020.
- Early Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 6% to 7% with "Significant downside risk" Link Bill McBride Fri 13 Aug 2021 15:20We look for growth of 7.0% qoq SAAR in 3Q ... We forecast retail sales fell by 2.3% mom in July, reflecting cooling service demand on Delta concerns and weaker online spend from the pull forward in the timing of Prime day. This poses significant downside risk to our 3Q GDP forecast; if we are correct, 3Q GDP tracking could fall to 3%. [August 13 estimate]emphasis added
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Link "Volumes of final expirations will increase significantly in September and October." https://t.co/uAR390I0Xz Bill McBride Fri 13 Aug 2021 13:29In the wake of last week’s 71,000 drop over the first days of August, our McDash Flash daily mortgage performance dataset showed another significant decline in the number of active forbearance plans in the days since. The total number of active plans declined by 83,000 since last Tuesday, pushing the total number of homeowners in forbearance below 1.8 million for the first time since early in the pandemic. As we’ve mentioned in the past, the largest movement in the number of forbearances tends to be seen early on in each month, as plans scheduled for three-month reviews in the month prior are reviewed for extension or removal. As of August 10, 1.74 million homeowners remain in COVID-19-related forbearance plans, representing 3.3% of all active mortgages, including 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 3.9% of loans held in bank portfolio and private securitizations. Improvement was seen across the board. Portfolio and PLS loans saw the strongest reduction, with a 43,000 (-7.8%)...
- San Diego Real Estate in July: Sales Down 4% YoY, Inventory Down 42% YoY Link Inventory in July was down slightly from the previous month, and up 13.0% from the record low in March 2021. Bill McBride Fri 13 Aug 2021 12:24
I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the San Diego Realtors: Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 3,600, down 4.5% from 3,769 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 3349, down 41.9% from 5,763 in July 2020. Months of Supply for attached was 1.0 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.9 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was down slightly from the previous month, and up 13.0% from the record low in March 2021.
- BofA ML: "High frequency rent indicators point to a hot rental market ... We believe OER can surpass prior business cycle highs, reaching 4.5% by next year and supporting above-target core inflation" My comment: OER will likely boost inflation over the next year. Bill McBride Fri 13 Aug 2021 12:14
- August 12th COVID-19: Crisis in Florida and Texas Link Next tweet is Florida hospitalizations. Grim. https://t.co/4qbfCwod7F Bill McBride Thu 12 Aug 2021 23:441 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).
- South Carolina Real Estate in July: Sales Down 10% YoY, Inventory Down 40% YoY Link Inventory in July was up 15.3% from the previous month, and up 23.1% from the record low in May 2021. Bill McBride Thu 12 Aug 2021 18:19
I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the South Carolina Realtors for the entire state: Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,658, down 9.5% from 10,675 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 12,869, down 40.4% from 21,592 in July 2020. Months of Supply was 1.4 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.6 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 15.3% from the previous month, and up 23.1% from the record low in May 2021.
- On local real estate markets reporting so far: Inventory is at record lows for July, and down about 33% YoY. But inventory is up 27% over the last 2 months. A key will be if inventory follows the usual seasonal pattern (peaks in summer), or if inventory continues to increase. Bill McBride Thu 12 Aug 2021 16:14
- Maryland Real Estate in July: Sales Down 3% YoY, Inventory Down 31% YoY Link Inventory in July was up 18.9% from last month, and up 64% from the all time low in March 2021. Bill McBride Thu 12 Aug 2021 16:09
Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Maryland Realtors for the entire state: Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,685, down 3.2% from 10,001 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 10,164, down 30.8% from 14,685 in July 2020. Months of Supply was 1.1 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.0 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 18.9% from last month, and up 64% from the all time low in March 2021.
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures of Inflation in July Link https://t.co/hd61zZSbuH Bill McBride Wed 11 Aug 2021 15:13
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in July. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for July here. "Lodging away from home" was up 101% annualized in July, however "Used cars and trucks" were down 43% annualized (reversing some of the previous increase). Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.3%. Core PCE is for June and increased 3.5%...
- Colorado Real Estate in July: Sales Down 13% YoY, Inventory Down 49% YoY Link Inventory in July was up 6.9% from last month, and up 27.3% from the record low in March 2021. Bill McBride Wed 11 Aug 2021 13:18
Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Colorado Association of REALTORS® for the entire state: Closed sales for Single Family and Townhouse-Condo in July 2021 were 12,417, down 13.4% from 14,338 in July 2020. Active Listings for Single Family and Townhouse-Condo in July 2021 were 11,126, down 49.3% from 21,959 in July 2020. Months of Supply was 1.0 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.2 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 6.9% from last month, and up 27.3% from the record low in March 2021.
- BLS: CPI increased 0.5% in July, Core CPI increased 0.3% Link CPI was at expectations, and core CPI was slightly below expectations. Bill McBride Wed 11 Aug 2021 12:38The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The indexes for shelter, food, energy, and new vehicles all increased in July and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The food index increased 0.7 percent in July as five of the major grocery store food group indexes rose, and the food away from home index increased 0.8 percent. The energy index rose 1.6 percent in July, as the gasoline index increased 2.4 percent and other energy component indexes also rose. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July after increasing 0.9 percent in June. Along with shelter and new vehicles, the indexes for recreation, for medical care, and for personal care increased in July. The index for...
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey Link https://t.co/xyQVfVNhVN Bill McBride Wed 11 Aug 2021 12:18Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 6, 2021. ... The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage applications rebounded last week, including an increase in purchase applications for the first time in nearly a month. Rates slightly rose but remained below 3 percent, driven by an end-of-week increase in the 10-year Treasury yield following the positive July jobs report,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Homeowners continue to respond to lower rates, with refinance activity...
- This is the first local market I've seen with inventory UP year-over-year. Sacramento Real Estate in July: Sales down 11% YoY, Active Inventory UP 27% YoY Link Inventory in July was up 23.5% from last month, and up 123% from the record low in January 2021. Bill McBride Tue 10 Aug 2021 23:42July closed ended with 1,574 sales, an 8.6% decrease from June (1,723). Compared to one year ago (1,772), the current figure is down 11.2%. ... The Active Listing Inventory increased 23.5% from June to July, from 1,297 units to 1,602 units. Compared with June 2020 (1,266), inventory is up 26.5%. The Months of Inventory increased from .8 Months to 1 Month. This figure represents the amount of time (in months) it would take for the current rate of sales to deplete the total active listing inventory. emphasis added
When Bobby McIlvaine died on September 11, 2001, his desk at home was a study in plate tectonics, coated in shifting piles of leather-bound diaries and yellow legal pads. He’d kept the diaries since he was a teenager, and they were filled with the usual diary things—longings, observations, frustrations—while the legal pads were marbled with more variety: aphoristic musings, quotes that spoke to him, stabs at fiction.
The yellow pads appeared to have the earnest beginnings of two different novels. But the diaries told a different kind of story. To the outside world, Bobby, 26, was a charmer, a striver, a furnace of ambition. But inside, the guy was a sage and a sap—philosophical about disappointments, melancholy when the weather changed, moony over girlfriends.
Less than a week after his death, Bobby’s father had to contend with that pitiless still life of a desk. And so he began distributing the yellow legal pads, the perfect-bound diaries: to Bobby’s friends; to...
- August 10th COVID-19: New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations Link Florida and Texas are in crisis. (graph in 2nd tweet) https://t.co/Rb7MmS3EsK Bill McBride Tue 10 Aug 2021 21:271 America's Short Term Goals,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Short term goal met (even if late).
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