Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 13, 2021. ... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates were at their highest levels in around a month, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing above 3 percent to 3.06 percent. Mortgage rates followed an overall increase in Treasury yields last week, which started higher from the strong July jobs report before slowing because of weaker consumer sentiment and concerns about rising COVID-19 cases,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry...

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1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.

Note: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. Click on graph for larger image. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 0.2% in July compared to the rolling 12 months ending in June.   Outbound traffic was down 2.2% compared to the rolling 12 months...

Builder sentiment in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell five points to 75 in August, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The index is at its lowest point since July 2020. Higher construction costs and supply shortages have led to significant price growth, which in turn has caused prospective buyers to experience sticker shock. The decline in the buyer traffic index to its lowest level since July 2020 is evidence that supply-side constraints have begun to hold consumers back. ... The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell five points to 81 and the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers also posted a five-point decline to 60. The gauge charting sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 81. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 74, the Midwest dropped two points to 68, the South posted a three-point...

Builder sentiment in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell five points to 75 in August, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The index is at its lowest point since July 2020.

Higher construction costs and supply shortages have led to significant price growth, which in turn has caused prospective buyers to experience sticker shock. The decline in the buyer traffic index to its lowest level since July 2020 is evidence that supply-side constraints have begun to hold consumers back.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component...

Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in July after moving up 0.2 percent in June. In July, manufacturing output rose 1.4 percent. About half of the gain in factory output is attributable to a jump of 11.2 percent for motor vehicles and parts, as a number of vehicle manufacturers trimmed or canceled their typical July shutdowns. Despite the large increase last month, vehicle assemblies continued to be constrained by a persistent shortage of semiconductors; the production of motor vehicles and parts in July was about 3-1/2 percent below its recent peak in January 2021. The output of utilities decreased 2.1 percent in July, while the index for mining rose 1.2 percent. At 101.1 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in July was 6.6 percent above its year-earlier level but 0.2 percent below its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.7 percentage point in July to 76.1 percent, a rate that is 3.5 percentage...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $617.7 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent from the previous month, but 15.8 percent above July 2020. ... The May 2021 to June 2021 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.7 percent. emphasis added

1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 14 basis points from 3.40% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.26% as of August 8, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 1.69%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 23 basis points to 3.95%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 32 basis points to 7.05%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 17 basis points to 3.46%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 13 basis points to 3.36%. “The largest decrease in a month in the share of loans in forbearance came from a jump in forbearance exits, as many homeowners are nearing the...

A couple of interesting points from 2019:   In 2019, inventory bottomed at 814 thousand in February (so inventory is still very low compared to normal levels).   And, in 2019, inventory peaked at 972 thousand in early August (an increase of about 19% from the low).  

Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. The 7-day average is down 21.5% from the same day in 2019 (78.5% of 2019).  (Dashed line) There was a slow increase from the bottom starting in May 2020 - and then TSA data picked up in 2021 - but the dashed line has mostly sideways over the last seven weeks.

1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Memphis Area Association of REALTORS®: Closed sales (existing Single and condo) in July 2021 were 2,300, up 20.9% from 1,903 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 2,514, down 14.4% from 2,938 in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 12.1% from the previous month, and up 27.2% from the record low in February 2021.

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Greater Nashville REALTORS®: Closed sales (single and condo) in July 2021 were 4,089, down 7.8% from 4,433 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 4,105, down 43.0% from 7,199 in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 21.6% from the previous month, and up 30.0% from the record low in May 2021.

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Greater Albuquerque Association of REALTORS®: Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 1,443, down 10.6% from 1,614 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 1,062, down 40.1% from 1,772 in July 2020. Months of Supply (detached) was 0.8 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.5 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was down 4.5% from the previous month, and up 13.6% from the record low in March 2021.