• I will not make a big deal about a monthly jobs report. I will not make a big deal about a monthly jobs report. But that was pretty impressive. If it had happened under Trump, they'd demand that he be made president for life. Oh, wait, they're doing that anyway.
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 12:38
  • Also, when do right-wingers start blaming the Covid surge on critical race theory? Or has it already happened and I missed it?
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 12:33
  • Excellent work, but the idea that facts can "put this to bed" is delusional. If people like DeSantis cared about facts, they'd be different people Link
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 12:23

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  • The infrastructure "pay-fors" are fake; it's really deficit spending. And that's a good thing! Link
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 11:28

    America desperately needs to start investing in itself. And it can easily afford to do so.

    But the path to a better future has been blocked by partisanship and misguided concepts of fiscal rectitude. Which is why I’m pleased to see members of Congress embracing budget chicanery.

    The background: The Senate appears on the verge of passing a bipartisan infrastructure bill — that is, a bill receiving support from a large enough minority of Republican senators to overcome the filibuster. This bill falls far short of what America really needs; it will be up to Democrats to fill the gaps with additional legislation enacted via reconciliation. Still, it’s a major political achievement, especially after the way “infrastructure week” became a running joke during the Trump era.

    But how did the Senate get there? The politics were fairly obvious: Infrastructure spending is very popular, and a significant number of Republicans didn’t want to be seen as complete...

  • Seeing some people claiming that progressive outrage over Tucker Carlson paying homage to Hungary's authoritarian regime is coming out of thin air. Folks, my Princeton colleague Kim Lane Scheppele was posting about this on my blog *a decade ago* Link
    Paul Krugman Wed 04 Aug 2021 18:21

    Last week I devoted a column to the unsettling political developments in Hungary. To expand on all this, I’ve asked my Princeton colleague Kim Lane Scheppele, who has been working extensively on the situation, to contribute a post. It’s below the fold.

    Hungary’s Constitutional Revolution Kim Lane Scheppele

    Last week, Paul Krugman’s column “Depression and Democracy” called attention to Hungary’s “authoritarian slide.” Since I was one of the sources for Paul’s column, I’d like to explain why I have been alarmed at the state of both constitutionalism and democracy in Hungary.

    In a free and fair election last spring in Hungary, the center-right political party, Fidesz, got 53% of the vote. This translated into 68% of the seats in the parliament under Hungary’s current disproportionate election law. With this supermajority, Fidesz won the power to change the constitution. They have used this power in the most extreme way at...

  • RT @jasonfurman: This piece by @MikeDorning is a nice motivation for the economic importance of infrastructure. Link
    Paul Krugman Wed 04 Aug 2021 14:31
    Volvo Construction Equipment Corp. in central Pennsylvania is a test of America’s highways, rail lines, and ports. And too often they let the company down—slowing the influx of global supplies that feed its main U.S. production facility, which builds wheel loaders, soil compactors, and other industrial vehicles.

    During a stretch in April and May, bad traffic on nearby Interstate 81 delayed the arrival of steel plates from Georgia on three occasions. Such incidents send senior production controller Mike Middaugh to his computer to test alternative assembly schedules, given what parts the factory has on hand and what other deliveries might be accelerated.

  • PS: the fascist octopus is a reference to George Orwell's "Politics and the English language," where he says that nonsense metaphors are a sign that the writer isn't actually thinking 3/
    Paul Krugman Tue 03 Aug 2021 19:00
  • I review a book about two 20th-century economists Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 03 Aug 2021 18:55

    SAMUELSON FRIEDMANThe Battle Over the Free MarketBy Nicholas Wapshott

    The New Deal and World War II transformed the U.S. economy from a market free-for-all into a system that was still capitalist, but with many of the rough edges sanded off.

  • So the former president of the United States refuses to speak up in ways that could save thousands of lives, because he wants to make life difficult for his successor. And we treat this as normal politics, not an act of mass manslaughter Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 03 Aug 2021 16:20

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  • And you know what? That's perfectly OK. With seriously negative real interest rates, we SHOULD be borrowing to invest 2/ https://t.co/5vjnG7TvXR
    Paul Krugman Tue 03 Aug 2021 16:15
  • Aha. So as expected, the infrastructure pay-fors are mostly smoke and mirrors (and the fascist octopus has sung its swan song) 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 03 Aug 2021 16:15

    “Before, they were doing four or five gimmicks. Now they just picked one gimmick and just made it much bigger,” said Marc Goldwein, a budget expert at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank. “So, maybe less in style points.”

  • RT @ashishkjha: Adjusted for population Florida had 12X as many kids infected as Massachusetts last week And Louisiana? About 10X So wha…
    Paul Krugman Tue 03 Aug 2021 13:29
  • Come for the analysis, stay for the Princess Bride reference Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 03 Aug 2021 11:34

    Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, isn’t stupid. He is, however, ambitious and supremely cynical. So when he says things that sound stupid it’s worth asking why. And his recent statements on Covid-19 help us understand why so many Americans are still dying or getting severely ill from the disease.

    The background here is Florida’s unfolding public health catastrophe.

    We now have highly effective vaccines freely available to every American who is at least 12 years old. There has been a lot of hype about “breakthrough” infections associated with the Delta variant, but they remain rare, and serious illness among the vaccinated is rarer still. There is no good reason we should still be suffering severely from this pandemic.

    But Florida is in the grip of a Covid surge worse than it experienced before the vaccines. More than 10,000 Floridians are hospitalized, around 10 times the number in New York, which has about as many residents; an average of 58 Florida...

  • Kentucky gets a net inflow of $14K per capita — 20% of GDP 3/
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 19:19
  • As the Rockefeller Institute shows, blue states, especially in the Northeast, de facto provide huge aid to red states 2/ Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 19:19
  • Greg makes an important point. But the child tax credit will just add to a system of policies conservatives oppose — that hugely benefit red states 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 19:14

    It has long been central to Republican mythology that Democrats have nothing but seething contempt for the rural and small-town inhabitants of the Real American Heartland. Republicans sometimes pair this with vile lies about Democratic proposals that would deliver economic benefits to those regions, turning their residents against them.

  • So if you put a dollar value on it, DeSantis's anti-mask, anti-Vax policies are costing his state the equivalent of 13% of its GDP. Winning the pandemic! 6/
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 12:58
  • FL's GDP is $1.1 trillion a year, or $3 billion a day 5/ https://t.co/MUe3IcqJsF
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 12:58
  • The standard valuation of a human life — based on revealed individual preferences — is $10 million. So FL should have been willing to pay $400 million a day to avoid these deaths 4/ Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 12:58
  • But leaving that aside, a good economy isn't much comfort if you're dead. FL currently losing ~58 people to Covid per day, compared with ~6 in NY. Say the excess death toll is ~40 a day. What's that worth? 3/
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 12:53
  • DeSantis has been touting the FL economy — although how well will that economy hold up as potential visitors realize that the Sunshine state has become extremely dangerous and its hospital system is in overload crisis? 2/
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 12:53
  • I've been doing some number-crunching on Florida, which has become the poster child for red-state Covid disaster; not only does it top the nation in hospitalizations per capita, but it's far bigger than the other disaster states 1/ https://t.co/BETdViqGrR
    Paul Krugman Mon 02 Aug 2021 12:48
  • The scale of the FL disaster is really amazing. On track to have more hospitalizations than NY at its peak 3/ https://t.co/iQ8DEJyDKV
    Paul Krugman Sun 01 Aug 2021 15:48
  • Has fawning coverage in Politico become the equivalent in politics? 2? https://t.co/5OIQBFIZ0R
    Paul Krugman Sun 01 Aug 2021 15:48
  • There's a familiar informal proposition in business analysis called the "magazine cover effect": fawning coverage of a company or its CEO is a leading indicator of disaster (whom the God would destroy, they first put on the cover of BusinessWeek) 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 01 Aug 2021 15:43

    I’ve long been a believer in the magazine cover indicator: when you see a corporate chieftain on the cover of a glossy magazine, short the stock. Or as I once put it (I’d actually forgotten I’d said that), “Whom the Gods would destroy, they first put on the cover of Business Week.”

    There’s even empirical evidence supporting the proposition that celebrity ruins the performance of previously good chief executives.

    Presumably the same effect applies to, say, economists.

    You have been warned.

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