• If there's one thing I've learned over the past 20+ years, it is that things can always get dumber Link
    Paul Krugman Thu 11 Aug 2022 13:24
    "It's cynical. It's a destruction of the meaning of words, it's Orwellian at its worst," says @FrankLuntz on the @POTUS response to the CPI data. "More than 70% of Americans have trouble making ends meet because of inflation."
  • Holding up pretty well. Underlying inflation still high, but good news all the same. Have claims that the numbers are fake started yet? Link
    Paul Krugman Wed 10 Aug 2022 15:07
    “The GOP's main campaign plank is getting sawed off” I suppose that it will take 3 quarters of negative GDP growth for you to call it a recession. Because, right now, things are looking rather “funky”.
  • A boom nobody loves Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 19:38

    Two weeks ago, I wrote a newsletter that I foolishly considered somewhat anodyne, not likely to get much reaction. It seemed probable that the initial estimate for G.D.P. growth in the second quarter would be negative and that many people would declare that this meant the United States was in a recession. So I spent some time pedantically explaining why we don’t actually use “two negative quarters” to define recessions and why, given other data, America probably wasn’t in one.

    Silly me. I immediately received the biggest wave of hate mail I’ve gotten since the Iraq War, although it tapered off as many other economists and institutions declared that we weren’t in recession — not yet, anyway — and it pretty much vanished after Friday’s monster jobs report.

    But absence of a recession aside, one question I get asked is what happened to the “Biden boom” I — and many other economists — predicted?

  • RT @MarkCurti: Glad to get this paper, coauthored with @mioana, released! Stay til the end of the ? to see why Paul Krugman cited us in the…
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 18:17
  • RT @GasBuddy: ?? NEWS: The national average price of gas in the U.S. this morning has fallen back under $4/gal for the first time since ear…
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 17:36
  • To believe these numbers you’d have to think the whole country is getting stupider. Which is implau…. Oh, wait Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 14:25
    That sure sounds like a whole lotta measurement error to me. I'm not sure anyone actually believes we became less productive last quarter. [Note: This is not a dig at the BLS... data are noisy; measurement is difficult, etc]
  • As far as I can tell, faction 1 has around 6 members Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 11:24
  • Instead, with no idea what the FBI may have on Trump, they're rushing to his defense. The man who wished his generals were more like Hitler's — and was stupid enough to say it — really does own the GOP. 5/
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 11:19
  • So you might think they'd welcome this development, which might clear a path for someone like DeSantis — also an anti-democracy zealot, but smarter and more self-disciplined. At least you might expect noncommittal statements while they await more information 4/
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 11:19
  • What's interesting is the reaction of Republican legislators. They know perfectly well that Trump engaged in sedition, but they don't care. However, they're probably also aware that Trump himself is a political liability 3/
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 11:14
  • Obviously, though, the FBI had reason to believe that there was an urgent need to act. No idea what if anything they found, but does anyone really doubt that Trump engaged in massive lawbreaking? As everyone says, no way the FBI would have done this lightly 2/
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 11:09
  • Personally, I'm annoyed by the searching of Mar a Lago — not the fact that it happened, but the timing. I was hoping that we could spend at least a few days talking about Dem's incredible climate policy triumph, which has now been crowded off the front pages 1/
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 11:09
  • Tune out the cynics. This bill is, as Bidenologists would say, a BFD, and hope lives Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 09 Aug 2022 10:49

    They really did it. The Inflation Reduction Act, which is mainly a climate change bill with a side helping of health reform, passed the Senate on Sunday; by all accounts it will easily pass the House, so it’s about to become law.

    This is a very big deal. The act isn’t, by itself, enough to avert climate disaster. But it’s a huge step in the right direction, and sets the stage for more action in the years ahead. It will catalyze progress in green technology; its economic benefits will make passing additional legislation easier; it gives the United States the credibility it needs to lead a global effort to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

    There are, of course, cynics eager to denigrate the achievement. Some on the left rushed to dismiss the bill as a giveaway to the fossil fuel industry posing as environmental action. More important, Republicans — who unanimously opposed the legislation — are shouting the usual things they shout: Big spending! Inflation!

  • New York Fed: Inflation Expectations Show Marked Decline at the Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Horizons https://t.co/DYFjM1ltlw
    Paul Krugman Mon 08 Aug 2022 15:29
  • Just want to reemphasize that on climate, Ds have NOT settled for a watered-down version of the original goals. They got almost the whole thing. Here's emission reductions from the REPEAT project: https://t.co/8tpOeyptPU
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 21:09
  • But overall, it's a remarkable record for a party with 50 senators and a relentlessly obstructionist opposition 5/
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 19:54
  • What got lost were the extensive social programs. That's a tragedy; we could have virtually eliminated child poverty, among other things. Even there, this bill expanded the enhanced subsidies that have helped bring uninsurance to a record low 4/
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 19:54
  • On infrastructure, Obama wanted to invest but couldn't; Trump promised to invest but didn't; Biden actually got it done 3/
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 19:49
  • Dems came into power with a three-part agenda: climate, infrastructure, and social programs. They just delivered on the first, which was the most crucial — and no, it wasn't far less than they sought. It accomplished most of the original objective 2/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 19:49
    A lot of focus on how much smaller in dollar terms than the original BBB proposal — although you want to bear in mind that the bipartisan infrastructure bill added about $550 billion spending over baseline. But also important to understand what *wasn't* lost from BBB 2/
  • To anyone about to write this up primarily as a horserace story — some already have — stop. Yes, the midterms matter, hugely; but first and foremost this was a victory for urgently needed policy 1/
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 19:44
  • I almost never watch Congress in action live. The passage of the ACA may have been the last time. But this was not to be missed.
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 19:29
  • What a moment. Don't let anyone minimize it by saying that progressives didn't get everything they wanted. Democrats — and it was only Democrats — have given us a real chance at avoiding an existential climate crisis.
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 19:29
  • Indeed; interesting to see Gas Buddy Guy justifiably losing his temper, a bit. But I'd add that even pre-pandemic gas prices were unsustainably low due to a fracking bubble that was losing money at an amazing rate. Relative to wages, gas is *cheaper* than it was in, say, 2013 Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 16:59
    Everyone's clamoring for #gasprices they paid at the height of the pandemic. You want your $1.86 or whatever price? Go back in time to when the economy was in the can, millions were let go from their jobs, the stock market crashed, and when there wasn't an answer yet to Covid.
  • RT @JesseJenkins: @paulkrugman That's exactly right Paul. We estimate the Inflation Reduction Act delivers about 80% of the cumulative emis…
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 14:08
  • But on the existential issue of fighting climate change, it looks to me as if Biden is about to get something like 90 percent of what he was seeking. That is a BFD 5/
    Paul Krugman Sun 07 Aug 2022 14:03
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