• I haven't seen anyone mention that when GW Bush came to the WH, his people claimed that departing Clinton staff vandalized the place — and the press bought it. It turned out that while there were a few missing keyboards and so on, the story was vastly exaggerated. Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 19 Nov 2019 19:50

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  • Bow ties are in the eye of the beholder. Sorry, couldn't help myself. Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 19 Nov 2019 17:44

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  • After all, Republicans have a 100% consistent record of blowing up the budget deficit whenever they hold power. Yet they still get away with pretending to be fiscally responsible. No reason to think their betrayal of America will play any differently 2/
    Paul Krugman Tue 19 Nov 2019 16:54
  • Given what's going down in these hearings, Republicans should be permanently disbarred from claiming to be patriots, let alone more patriotic than Democrats. Too bad we know that it won't happen 1/
    Paul Krugman Tue 19 Nov 2019 16:54
  • The belief that tax cuts work miracles is really the ultimate zombie idea. No matter how often it fails, the right keeps pushing it Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 19 Nov 2019 13:59
  • RT @sbg1: Somehow it seems very 2019 that the Lt Col Purple Heart Iraq veteran who will testify this am will be the focus of GOP attacks, a…
    Paul Krugman Tue 19 Nov 2019 14:04
  • The imperfect is often the friend not just of the good, but of the better over time Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 19 Nov 2019 13:34

    Recent state elections — the Democratic landslide in Virginia, followed by Democratic gubernatorial victories in Kentucky and Louisiana — have been bad news for Donald Trump.

    Among other things, the election results vindicate polls indicating that Trump is historically unpopular. All of these races were in part referendums on Trump, who put a lot of effort into backing his preferred candidates. And in each case voters gave him a clear thumbs down.

    Beyond offering a verdict on Trump, however, I’d argue that the state elections offered some guidance on an issue that has divided Democrats, namely health care. What the results suggested to me was the virtue of medium-size reform: incremental enough to have a good chance of being enacted, big enough to provide tangible benefits that voters don’t want taken away.

    Remember, there was a third governor’s race, in Mississippi, in which the G.O.P. held on. True, Mississippi is a very red state, which Trump won by 18...

  • RT @benpershing: The U.S. Army is monitoring Vindman’s security and is prepared to move him and his family to a local military base if nece…
    Paul Krugman Tue 19 Nov 2019 13:14
  • Aha. This is one major point of my column for tomorrow. Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 18 Nov 2019 21:09

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  • Nobody could have predicted Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 18 Nov 2019 18:23

    When President Trump’s advisers suggested that Beijing resume buying around $20 billion in American farm products as part of a trade deal, Mr. Trump wasn’t satisfied. In a dramatic public retelling in the Cabinet Room, he said he pressed his team to more than triple that figure, then trimmed that a little and asked for up to $50 billion in annual purchases.

    “My people had $20 billion done,” Mr. Trump recounted in an Oct. 21 cabinet meeting. “And I said, ‘I want more.’ They said, ‘The farmers can’t handle it.’ I said, ‘Tell them to buy larger tractors. It’s very simple.’” The cabinet members gathered around Mr. Trump laughed.

    Mr. Trump has brought his characteristic love of show business to trade talks with China, injecting public drama into typically staid proceedings. He has alternated displays of anger and warmth toward Beijing and assumed the role of the insatiable negotiator, pairing ambitious goals for a trade pact with even bigger threats should China not...

  • Tycoons used to defend their wealth by taking credit for building major industries and railroads. Now, it's about their brilliance in introducing ... a new chicken sandwich Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 18 Nov 2019 17:38

    The private equity industry, under attack from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, is defending itself with the Popeyes chicken sandwich.

    The industry is touting the fast food craze as a success attributable to private equity-backed Popeyes as it tries to ward off a bipartisan Capitol Hill assault led by Warren, including legislation that would increase the firms’ liability for the companies they take over. The industry is also facing two congressional probes and a House hearing this week as lawmakers raise concerns about its impact on workers and consumers.

  • When I worked at the Council of Economic Advisers in the 1980s, I was officially attached to the Maritime Administration (bc the Reagan admin wanted the WH staff to look smaller than it was). Marty Feldstein used to call me "Midshipman Krugman" Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 18 Nov 2019 17:03

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  • RT @gabriel_zucman: After having spent the last 30 years predicting wonders from corporate tax cuts, the time has come for me to predict th…
    Paul Krugman Mon 18 Nov 2019 00:33
  • As this article says, Warren called me to preview her M4A plan. Small funny detail: I was actually teaching when my phone went off, and I just let it go into voice mail. Didn't find out until later that it was her. We managed to connect later in the day Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 17 Nov 2019 21:53

    Two days before Senator Elizabeth Warren rolled out a fundamental reimagining of America’s health care and tax system — a $20.5 trillion package that would dwarf all her previous plans combined — she was working the phones to personally preview her proposal and sell it to a select group of political influencers.

    One was Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist, who had written skeptically days earlier that her plan to pay for “Medicare for all” was a “make-or-break moment” for her, if not the whole 2020 race. Another call was to Representative Pramila Jayapal, the lead sponsor of Medicare for all legislation in the House and a leading liberal as the co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

    “Pramila,” Ms. Warren told her, “we’re gonna do this.”

    She would soon need every ally possible: Ms. Warren’s announcement of her Medicare for all financing package is perhaps the riskiest political bet of her campaign. Her...

  • This is an amazing report: health care provided to rural areas via telepresence. On one side, technology is amazing; on the other, the collapse of basic services in lagging regions Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 17 Nov 2019 18:27

    SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — A flashing red light summoned Dr. Brian Skow to his third emergency of the afternoon, and he hurried to a desk in a suburban office building. He sat in front of an oversize computer monitor, which showed a live video feed from inside a hospital room in eastern Montana. Two nurses were leaning over a patient on a stretcher, checking for a pulse, and squeezing oxygen out of a bag and into the patient’s lungs.

  • Have the Republican-leaning economists who praised the cut to the skies issued any mea culpas? Or does being on the right mean never having to say you're sorry? 3/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 17 Nov 2019 18:22

    Must-Read: The Nine Unprofessional Republican Economists have become even more unprofessional. I would also note that such transparent self-contradiction is incompetent. Do they even read what they wrote four days before?: Robert J. Barro, Michael J. Boskin, John Cogan, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Glenn Hubbard, Lawrence B. Lindsey, Harvey S. Rosen, George P. Shultz and John. B. Taylor (Wednesday, November 29, 2017): Economists respond to Summers, Furman over Mnuchin letter: "First Point You Raised: Our letter addresses the impact of corporate tax reform on GDP; we did not offer claims about the speed of adjustment to a long-run result (though official revenue estimators will obviously need to do so for short-run analysis)..."

  • Well, everyone makes a bad prediction now and then. Go knows I have. But when that happens, you're supposed to engage in some soul-searching. Was your basic model wrong? Did you engage in motivated reasoning? So, has anyone seen that from any prominent tax-cut supporter? 2/
    Paul Krugman Sun 17 Nov 2019 18:17
  • The Trump tax cut has been a big flop — huge giveaways to corporations, no visible rise in investment. So the critics were right, and the supporters wrong 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 17 Nov 2019 18:17

    WASHINGTON — In the 2017 fiscal year, FedEx owed more than $1.5 billion in taxes. The next year, it owed nothing. What changed was the Trump administration’s tax cut — for which the company had lobbied hard.

    The public face of its lobbying effort, which included a tax proposal of its own, was FedEx’s founder and chief executive, Frederick Smith, who repeatedly took to the airwaves to champion the power of tax cuts. “If you make the United States a better place to invest, there is no question in my mind that we would see a renaissance of capital investment,” he said on an August 2017 radio show hosted by Larry Kudlow, who is now chairman of the National Economic Council.

  • A side point: Philippon helps demolish the myth that our modern tech giants are transformative in a way nothing has been before 2/ https://t.co/mfBzeUtKJj
    Paul Krugman Sat 16 Nov 2019 12:21
  • This Martin Wolf review of Thomas Philippon's The Great Reversal is, well, great. The US is suffering from decades of lax antitrust enforcement, and is poorer and more unequal as a result 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sat 16 Nov 2019 12:21
  • RT @CitizenCohn: You want a detailed policy breakdown on Warren's plan? @charles_gaba has it (of course) Link
    Paul Krugman Sat 16 Nov 2019 00:46
  • Just as everyone seems to be sounding the all-clear on the economy, the two most prominent "nowcasts" — NY and Atlanta Fed — are showing a near-stall in 4th quarter growth, 0.4 and 0.3 % respectively. Could be wrong, but startling Link Link
    Paul Krugman Fri 15 Nov 2019 22:06
    Notes: We start reporting the nowcast for a reference quarter about one month before the quarter begins; we stop updating it about one month after the quarter closes. Colored bars reflect the impact of each broad category of data on the nowcast; the impact of specific data releases is shown in the accompanying table. Our forecasts for GDP growth from 2002:Q1 through 2015:Q4 are historical reconstructions. The values we report for these quarters represent predictions that our nowcasting model would have made in real time, using the data that were available to the public as of the dates noted. For more information, please read our accompanying Liberty Street Economics post, Just Released: Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15.###

    The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model...

  • She'll no doubt take some cheap shots from both left and right — Sanders supporters claiming that she's failed their purity test, Buttigieg et al claiming that somehow or other she's still too big-government. But it looks pretty smart to many who take this stuff seriously 2/
    Paul Krugman Fri 15 Nov 2019 21:56
  • Yes. Warren is setting M4A as a goal, but trying to provide a lot of quick benefits that don't depend on getting M4A through. It's more of a stepping-stone plan than a transition plan — which is actually a very good idea 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Fri 15 Nov 2019 21:56

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  • RT @daveweigel: Presidents of AFT and AFSCME both going out of their way to praise Warren transition white paper. https://t.co/vaA72LTJkP
    Paul Krugman Fri 15 Nov 2019 21:06
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