• It's hard to overstate the sheer vicious gratuitousness of what's happening in Florida right now. Blocking schools from requiring masks or businesses from asking for proof of vaccination is basically killing people to satisfy MAGA psychosis 1/ https://t.co/ncmpL0mazt
    Paul Krugman Tue 10 Aug 2021 13:57
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    Paul Krugman Mon 09 Aug 2021 19:11

    Democrats on Monday launched their push for the most significant expansion of the nation’s social safety net since the Great Society, unveiling a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint that would boost spending on health care, child and elder care, education and climate change while bypassing a promised Republican filibuster.

    The blueprint, which the Senate hopes to pass by the end of this week, would allow Senate Democrats to piece together social policy legislation this fall, fully paid for by raising taxes on the wealthy, large inheritances and corporations. And if Democrats and their two independent allies can hold together, that measure could pass the Senate without a Republican vote.

    That measure would pass after a separate $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill likely clears the Senate on Tuesday. Together, they would secure the remainder of President Biden’s $4 trillion economic agenda, but the two-step effort will test Mr. Biden’s ability to both work with...

  • Obligatory sense of scale: even if all of this happens along with the bipartisan thingie, it will amount to 1.3% of GDP over the next decade. Huge by recent standards, but recent standards have been pitiful Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 09 Aug 2021 19:11

    Democrats on Monday launched their push for the most significant expansion of the nation’s social safety net since the Great Society, unveiling a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint that would boost spending on health care, child and elder care, education and climate change while bypassing a promised Republican filibuster.

    The blueprint, which the Senate hopes to pass by the end of this week, would allow Senate Democrats to piece together social policy legislation this fall, fully paid for by raising taxes on the wealthy, large inheritances and corporations. And if Democrats and their two independent allies can hold together, that measure could pass the Senate without a Republican vote.

    That measure would pass after a separate $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill likely clears the Senate on Tuesday. Together, they would secure the remainder of President Biden’s $4 trillion economic agenda, but the two-step effort will test Mr. Biden’s ability to both work with...

  • Total cost of that shortfall? Around $3 trillion. And elite opinion thought throwing away that $3 trillion was the prudent, responsible thing to do. Remember this when the usual suspects start whining about debt again 7/
    Paul Krugman Sun 08 Aug 2021 14:05
  • How I think of it: throughout the Obama years there was a huge gap between what the economy could have been producing and what it actually produced; adequate federal spending could have eliminated that gap 6/ https://t.co/XAgKHaT9Dh
    Paul Krugman Sun 08 Aug 2021 14:00
  • In other words, absence of debt obsession made this recovery possible. And if we hadn't been hobbled by debt fears (and GOP sabotage), recovery from the last recession could have been quick too 5/
    Paul Krugman Sun 08 Aug 2021 14:00
  • In particular, big government aid kept household balance sheets in pretty good shape; aid to businesses also limited "scarring". The cost was a big increase in federal debt — which has been no problem at all 4/
    Paul Krugman Sun 08 Aug 2021 14:00
  • But while the peculiar nature of the recession made a V-shaped recovery relatively easy to achieve once the virus was under control (and if DeSantis etc don't bring it back in full), govt policy also contributed 3/
    Paul Krugman Sun 08 Aug 2021 13:55
  • A lot of people were expecting another sluggish recovery like post-2008, although some of us did see this coming (this is from last May) 2/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 08 Aug 2021 13:55

    On Friday, May 15 at 12:30 PM ET, Paul Krugman joined the Princeton Bendheim Center for Finance for a webinar on COVID-19 and the pace of economic recovery. Krugman is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University, the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, a columnist at the New York Times, and a 2008 recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics.

    The event began with a brief discussion by Markus Brunnermeier, Director of the Princeton Bendheim Center for Finance. Both Brunnermeier and Krugman took questions from the audience throughout the event.

    Watch the full presentation below and download the slides here.  You can also watch all Markus’ Academy webinars on the Princeton BCF YouTube channel.

  • Some more thoughts on Friday's employment report. The White House likes to focus on 3-month averages; for the past 3 months job growth at annual rate of 6.9%. That's right up there with 1983-4 "Morning in America" 1/
    Paul Krugman Sun 08 Aug 2021 13:55
  • It's always true that some prices are rising more than others. But this is really extreme, and does suggest transitory bottlenecks rather than broad-based inflation pressure 3/
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 18:14
  • Combined, these three sectors account for less than 5% of the CPI — but more than 1/2 of inflation over the past three months 2/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 18:14
  • Noodling around on recent economic numbers. It's really amazing how much recent inflation reflects just three things: used cars, hotel rooms, and airfares 1/ https://t.co/rrXweD6WkS
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 18:14
  • So it's not just that one side of most important debates is arguing in bad faith; it's trapped in lies — as I said, con men imprisoned by their own con 6/
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 17:19
  • On economics, why does the right stick with creatures like Kudlow and Moore? Precisely because they have no professional reputation, so they can't be tempted to change their views in the face of evidence 5/
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 17:19
  • And it goes further back. Climate deniers won't be moved even as much of America and Europe burns, because they're *professional* climate deniers; they have nothing else to do with their lives 4/
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 17:14
  • People who bought into the Big Lie about the stolen election similarly can't step back 3/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 17:14

    Everyone has, at some point, been fooled into thinking something fake was real. Maybe it was a post on social media that you shared before realizing it was a spoof or satire. Maybe it was a bargain you saw that turned out not to be a bargain or that left you with some broken or falsely advertised product. Or maybe it was a grand conspiracy about rampant election fraud that spurred you to spend millions of dollars declaring that you alone knew the truth about what had happened — only to be told, over and over, that you were entirely and obviously wrong.

  • DeSantis isn't stupid; he probably realizes what a disaster he's presiding over. But he staked his political fortunes on pro-Covid policies; if he were to back down now, even an inch, he'd have to find a new career 2/
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 17:14
  • This applies across multiple aspects of the partisan divide. The GOP is basically a party of con men who have become prisoners of their own con 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 17:09

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  • RT @CardiffGarcia: This is a *great*, simple, super clear explainer of New Trade Theory, in the context of its relevance to the global vacc…
    Paul Krugman Sat 07 Aug 2021 14:29
  • RT @nytopinion: “Health care isn't just about your health; it's also a more important employer than manufacturing, and a better source of w…
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 18:13
  • It takes a global economy to fight a virus Link
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 15:58

    For many of us, Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics — a boutique think tank specializing in, duh, international economics — has become the go-to guy for current developments in trade policy. His work tracking the evolution of Donald Trump’s trade war was invaluable.

    Now he has a highly informative new paper with Thomas Bollyky on the vaccine supply chain. I won’t lie: There’s a lot of detail, and the paper is fairly heavy going. But it’s full of useful details, and it also, I’d argue, tells us some interesting things about the nature of world trade in the 21st century.

    One thing that caught my eye — probably not the most important thing, but one close to my heart — is that the story of global vaccine production demonstrates the continuing relevance of the so-called New Trade Theory, or as some now call it, the “old New Trade Theory.”

  • Remembering how the previous crew put out reports saying things like "socialism is bad — look how expensive owning a pickup truck is in Sweden" 2/ Link
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 15:18

    Today, the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released a report outlining the opportunity costs of socialism on the macro economy, including standards of living, and the impact on the Federal budget.  Below is the executive summary.  Read the full report here.

    Coincident with the 200th anniversary of Karl Marx’s birth, socialism is making a comeback in American political discourse. Detailed policy proposals from self-declared socialists are gaining support in Congress and among much of the electorate.

    It is unclear, of course, exactly what a typical voter has in mind when he or she thinks of “socialism.” But economists generally agree about how to define socialism, and they have devoted enormous time and resources to studying its costs and benefits. With an eye on this broad body of literature, this report discusses socialism’s historic visions and intents, its economic features, its impact on economic performance, and its relationship with recent...

  • Still find it weird to read such sober, sensible analysis coming out of the White House 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 15:18

    Today’s jobs report showed the economy added 943,000 jobs in July, for an average gain of 832,000 over the last three months. This is the fastest monthly job growth since August of last summer. Job gains in May and June were both revised up. In addition, the unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage point and labor force participation ticked up by 0.1 percentage point.

    While this is a strong monthly report, it is important to focus on the trend of job growth. In addition, the economic recovery will not be complete until the public health situation is under control, as reinforced by the rise of Covid cases associated with the Delta variant.

    1. Job growth over the last three months has averaged more than 800,000, up from earlier in the year.

    Average job growth from May to July was 832,000 jobs a month (see Figure 1). Since monthly numbers can be volatile, it is important to focus on the three-month average rather than the data in a single month, as described...

  • RT @hshierholz: Leisure and hospitality grew by 380,000 in July. Over the last four months, leisure & hospitality has added 1.4 million job…
    Paul Krugman Fri 06 Aug 2021 12:53
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