• RT @kylegriffin1: Texas just passed New York in COVID-19 deaths, despite once trailing by 29,000. Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 01 Aug 2021 15:38

    Texas has passed New York to become the state with the second-most COVID-19 deaths, a feat experts say was driven by an inability to control transmission of the virus here.

    Texas reached the milestone Wednesday, hitting 53,275 deaths, despite trailing New York by more than 29,000 fatalities last summer. Since then, though Texas is 54 percent more populous, more than twice as many Texans as New Yorkers have succumbed to COVID-19. California, the most populous state, leads the nation with 64,372 virus deaths.

  • 3/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 01 Aug 2021 15:13

    Over the weekend J.D. Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy” and now a Trumpist candidate for U.S. senator in Ohio, tweeted that he was planning a visit to New York, which he has heard is “disgusting and violent.” Vance, a graduate of Yale Law School who currently works as a venture capitalist, surely knows better. But he presumably hopes that Republican voters don’t.

    But why do so many Americans still believe that our major cities are hellholes of crime and depravity? Why do so many politicians still believe that they can run on the supposed contrast between urban evil and small-town virtue when many social indicators look worse in the heartland than in the big coastal metropolitan areas?

    To be sure, there was a national surge in homicides — although not in overall crime — during the pandemic, for reasons that remain unclear. But New York is still safer than it was a decade ago, vastly safer than it was 30 years ago, and, for what it’s worth, considerably safer...

  • This was already true about deaths of despair, now it's true for Covid 2/
    Paul Krugman Sun 01 Aug 2021 15:13
  • As I've been saying, a lot of people just won't give up on the vision of healthy small towns and urban hellholes, no matter what the facts say 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 01 Aug 2021 15:08

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  • New York City, with roughly the same population as Israel, has had only 4 deaths a day Link
    Paul Krugman Sun 01 Aug 2021 14:38

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  • Bears on something I wrote a few months back 3/ Link https://t.co/KXrb1yJSJb
    Paul Krugman Sat 31 Jul 2021 18:32
  • Struck by this line from one company 2/ https://t.co/1kWyyzpuNo
    Paul Krugman Sat 31 Jul 2021 18:27
  • And now for something almost completely different: interesting Bloomberg piece on how companies are finding workarounds for supply-chain issues 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Sat 31 Jul 2021 18:27

    The concept of a “supply chain” tends to conjure up images of routine, repetition and predictability; the concept is most commonly illustrated by a straight line or a perfect circle. The pandemic threw all of that out the window.

  • This appears to be true. However, the real interest rate on pixie dust is -0.8 percent, so it's perfectly OK Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 29 Jun 2021 15:55

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  • Nice essay via FTAlphaville. Bitcoin has clearly failed in its mission to become money, but its value is sustained because it has become a sort of natural Ponzi scheme Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 29 Jun 2021 11:29

    There are two kinds of people who label bitcoin a ponzi. The first group is made up of salty nocoiners who launch the word ponzi as an insult. These people disliked bitcoin and/or bitcoiners pretty much from the get-go. They criticize it at every chance they get. The second group uses the word ponzi in a neutral, or analytic sense. They aren't describing bitcoin as a ponzi in order to insult bitcoin, but in the same way that a biologist would describe a certain mosquito as belonging to the family Culiseta longiareolata rather than Culiseta minnesotae.In philosophy, this distinction is captured by the contrast between descriptive and normative statements. A descriptive claim is one that describes a situation. "Brutus killed Caesar." A normative one is that makes some sort of value judgement about how things ought to be. "Killing is wrong." Likewise, economists distinguish between positive and normative economics. (The economic distinction is the same as the philosophical...

  • So far, inflation is following the core-v-transitory script: surges in things like lumber are already fading, not much sign of a surge in underlying inflation 2/
    Paul Krugman Tue 29 Jun 2021 11:24
  • "The cure for high prices is high prices." Very good from Neil Irwin — and distinguishing between where that is and isn't true is a good definition of core inflation 1/ Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 29 Jun 2021 11:24
    Auto manufacturing is a complex process with lots of pieces, meaning that the current shortages and higher prices of cars are likely to persist for some time. This is less true of simpler products like lumber.Credit...Alyssa Schukar for The New York Times
  • The military has become smart and open-minded. So now Republicans hate them Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 28 Jun 2021 23:44

    As everyone knows, leftists hate America’s military. Recently, a prominent left-wing media figure attacked Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declaring, “He’s not just a pig, he’s stupid.”

  • Am I the only person for whom Twitter's home page will no longer load on Chrome? Working OK on other browsers.
    Paul Krugman Mon 28 Jun 2021 12:58
  • Always good to see smart people admit having been wrong, and analyzing why. Also good, though far less important, when they say that I was right Link https://t.co/HHZETPk9Ue
    Paul Krugman Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:47

    Unfortunately, many of the bad predictions about COVID-19 came true. The people who saw cases ramping up exponentially, and warned that this was going to be a mass death event, were right, while the people who minimized the threat and waved it away were wrong. And a lot of people are dead because we didn’t listen to the former.

    But economic predictions are a different story. When unemployment spiked to Great Depression levels in the early days of lockdown, it seemed to me — and to many, many others — like this downturn was destined to turn into a decade of mass economic hardship. Fortunately, that was completely off the mark! I got it very wrong and Paul Krugman got it right — with no financial crisis and no big overhang of debt, the economy simply wasn’t destined for a repeat of 2008-12. Though the recovery has proven bumpy thus far, but most economists still forecast a relatively swift return to the pre-pandemic growth trend.

    In fact, this was one of many...

  • Not to say that overheating is a non-concern. But why buy into doctrines that have failed again and again? Anyway, back to it: miles to go (around 40) before I sleep 4/
    Paul Krugman Wed 16 Jun 2021 11:56
  • And huge emphasis on monetary aggregates, which have been totally useless at predicting inflation (Milton Friedman got this repeatedly wrong in the 1980s) 3/ https://t.co/r85PyBfJiO
    Paul Krugman Wed 16 Jun 2021 11:56
  • Intense hatred for the very idea of transitory inflation, which has been one of macro's greatest empirical triumphs, helping avoid repeated overreactions 2/ https://t.co/lAycDvyZB1
    Paul Krugman Wed 16 Jun 2021 11:56
  • Slow start today on bike trip, which has been a bit harder than my priors and very hard on my posterior — but I'm doing OK. Anyway, quick check on my inbox, which is full of inflation panic. Funny thing: most correspondents obsessed with one or both of 2 failed doctrines 1/
    Paul Krugman Wed 16 Jun 2021 11:51
  • This is really interesting — how Just In Time set the stage for the supply-chain mess Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 01 Jun 2021 10:46

    In the story of how the modern world was constructed, Toyota stands out as the mastermind of a monumental advance in industrial efficiency. The Japanese automaker pioneered so-called Just In Time manufacturing, in which parts are delivered to factories right as they are required, minimizing the need to stockpile them.

  • Maybe the most important thing about Biden's budget isn't the dollars it delivers but the dogma it dismisses Link
    Paul Krugman Tue 01 Jun 2021 10:20

    Many reports about the Biden administration’s budget proposal, released Friday, convey the sense that it’s huge. President Biden, scream some of the headlines, wants to spend SIX TRILLION DOLLARS next year. (Sorry, can’t help doing my best Dr. Evil imitation.) It takes some digging to learn that the baseline — the amount the administration estimates we’d spend next fiscal year without new policies — is $5.7 trillion.

  • The American left asks why we can't be like Denmark, with universal health care, low child poverty, and high life satisfaction. The American right asks why we can't have a murderously repressive regime like Putin's Russia, or now Myanmar. OK. Link
    Paul Krugman Mon 31 May 2021 20:15

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  • Ok, now these supply bottlenecks are getting serious. Several of Holmes’s favorite flavors are out of stock https://t.co/VVQxYqVZxQ
    Paul Krugman Mon 31 May 2021 14:00
  • One likely answer: only better educated women earn enough to defray the cost of child care. It's not culture; it's the ugly economics that result from public neglect 4/
    Paul Krugman Thu 29 Apr 2021 16:32
  • Working mothers are, on average, better educated and better paid than working women in general. But why 3/ Link.
    Paul Krugman Thu 29 Apr 2021 16:27
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