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- Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and other Senate Republicans spoke to media after reaching a bipartisan infrastructure deal last month. “We cannot live without fossil fuels or chemicals, period, end of story,” he said recently.Credit...T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York Times
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As the editorial...
To be a good empirical economist, you must be prepared to make use of economic data without forgetting that the data is at best an imperfect guide to reality. I used to describe national income accounting — G.D.P. and all that — as a peculiarly boring form of science fiction. That’s not to say that the statisticians just make things up; they try really hard, and their work is immensely valuable. It’s just that any close look at how the numbers are constructed reveals that data coverage is always incomplete and the gaps are filled in with estimates and imputations.
Lately, however, I’ve found myself drawn to another analogy: Economic measures, especially the measures we use to make sense of a rapidly changing situation, are like the shadows on the wall of Plato’s cave. That is, they’re imperfect images of an underlying reality that exists, but that we can’t directly see. And sometimes it’s important, in interpreting the shadows, to think about the Platonic ideal...
The lesson from Wednesday’s consumer price report was, to a large extent, in the eyes of the beholder.
Team Transitory — a term I’m stealing from the economic analyst George Pearkes — was encouraged by the fact that July’s inflation was substantially lower than June’s. That is, those arguing that recent price increases reflect temporary disruptions as we recover from the pandemic rather than an underlying inflation problem — a group that includes White House economists, many progressives and yours truly — found the report reassuring.
Other reasonable economists were not as sanguine, pointing out that inflation is still running hot and warning that we may soon see substantial increases in rent, which is a big part of the Consumer Price Index. And I’ll concede the possibility that above-normal inflation may prove persistent enough that the Federal Reserve will want to tighten monetary policy sooner than it now expects. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I’m not...
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- Consumer prices spiked in June at the fastest annual pace since 2008 and everything from used cars and airfare to laundry machines and bacon has become more expensive as inflation spikes. Some economists have argued that this period of inflation will be temporary, but it's emerged as a key talking point for Republicans hoping to slow Biden's agenda.
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