.@bopinion re dispersion in #Covid vaccination: Comparing shares in global population to shares in global vaccination for the 50 wealthiest and least wealthy countries. Needless to say, such dispersion has notable health, economic, social, political and institutional implications https://t.co/EIKdovRr1q
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 07 Aug 2021 13:29- Like a week ago with "The World for Sale," it didn't take long to get into this book -- "The Key Man" -- by @SimonWSJ and @william_louch. https://t.co/ITlzFNKqQY Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 07 Aug 2021 02:28
- Posted this morning: Thoughts on why the #Fed's continued pursuit of ultra-loose monetary policy poses risks for both an inclusive economic recovery and the #Biden Administration's transformational economic agenda. Link @PostOpinions @washingtonpost #economy Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 07 Aug 2021 02:03
It would be understandable and conventional to assume that the ultra-dovish monetary policy that the Federal Reserve continues to pursue a year and a half after the onset of the pandemic is contributing to a strong, sustainable and inclusive recovery. This may no longer be the case. Instead, it is increasingly putting at risk not just the recovery but also President Biden’s transformational economic agenda.
- A notable move up in yields on US government #bonds with the stronger-than-expected #jobs report. The 10-year closed at 1.30%, completing a 3-week roundtrip that saw an intra-day low of 1.12% on (i) concerns of slowing #growth and (ii) more dovish remarks from #Fed Chair Powell. https://t.co/gNDVj7khD3 Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 23:18
- Really don't want this day to pass. So good to get such a good, across the board, #jobs report More good news: The strong July numbers were accompanied by favorable revisions to prior months. Makes a big difference to a lot of people. The key now is to sustain the improvements Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 21:23
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- Video clips from this morning's @BloombergTV conversation--on the #jobs report, the #economy, and policy. Big thanks to @FerroTV and @RickRieder It's both an honor and a pleasure to interact with them on economic and policy issues Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 20:1800:00Don't listen to the policy makers listen to the C suite andcorporate America. Why is that so important. Because if you just look at two macro models they're notcapturing structural change and there's a lot of structural change more in the economy. So listen to those driving. Icompletely agree with Rick. Business investment is going up. You have strong household demand. You have strong corporate demand.You have strong government demand. Do you really want to put the Fed on top of that. He spoke about a really important thingwhich is resource misallocation because of price signalling mechanism is distorted. That's not a good thing. We haveexcessive and I would say irresponsible risk taking in some parts of the economy. That's not a good thing. We have a housingmarket that's pricing out Americans. That's not a good thing. So when I look at that. This is time for the Fed to start tapering.If it doesn't we don't only risk the durable inclusive sustainable recovery. We also raise...
- RT @PoppyHarlowCNN: “Continuing on this trajectory could inflict unnecessary damage on the economy in the next 12 months, fuel unsettling f… Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 18:28
- RT @annmarie: OPINION— The Fed’s ultraloose monetary policy could hurt both the economy and Biden’s agenda says ?@elerianm? and he’s talkin… Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 13:23
- Some more numbers from the #jobs report: Labor force participation rate edged up 0.1 pp; employment-to-population ratio rose 0.4 pp. As regards the drop in the unemployment rate, this was led by the 1.0 pp drop in the measures for Blacks/African Americans and 0.8 pp for Hispanics Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 12:43
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- Link to the #jobs report: Link First reaction Across the board strong report that's good for the economy and puts the #Fed on the spot. Job creation (943,000) beat expectations, as did the drop in the unemployment rate (to 5.4%); wage growth, hours worked solid Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 12:38Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until USDL-21-1434 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, August 6, 2021 Technical information: Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2021 Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 943,000 in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in local government education, and in professional and business services. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information...
- Via the @washingtonpost: Thoughts on why the #FederalReserve's continued pursuit of ultra-loose monetary policy poses risks for an inclusive economic recovery and the #Biden Administration's transformational economic agenda. Link #economy #centralbanks #fed Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 12:18
It would be understandable and conventional to assume that the ultra-dovish monetary policy that the Federal Reserve continues to pursue a year and a half after the onset of the pandemic is contributing to a strong, sustainable and inclusive recovery. This may no longer be the case. Instead, it is increasingly putting at risk not just the recovery but also President Biden’s transformational economic agenda.
- Thanks @FerroTV for highlighting the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) ahead of today's US #jobs report. While far from perfect, the report--via job creation, participation, wages--will provide hints on the labor market's ability to match employees to record openings https://t.co/YXRZPQJJAK Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 11:48
- Interesting remarks from #RBA Governor Philip #Lowe explaining 1. Why #Australia’s central bank is continuing to #taper despite slower economic growth due to the #DeltaVariant and 2. How the prior implementation of #QE was linked to concerns about #currency appreciation pressure. https://t.co/rwHRReigM2 Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 06 Aug 2021 03:37
- The @FT re the US #housing market: "‘It has never been like this’: US house price spiral worries policymakers." The surge in house prices is side-lining more and more Americans...and yet the #FederalReserve feels compelled to continue buying $40 billion of mortgages each month. https://t.co/JMzByKxpoe Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 05 Aug 2021 01:01
- Much stronger-than-expected US #ISM services index offsets concerns arising from the ADP report earlier today Index rose by 4.0 points (to a record level of 64.1) driven by gains in new order, business activity and, notably, the #jobs component Prices paid rose by 2.8 pts to 82.3 Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 04 Aug 2021 17:11
- Consistent with what other companies are signaling, including those that have hiked wages and/or offered sign-up bonuses. Longer it persists, the more generalized the increase in wages as employed workers look across the street for higher compensation Already, quit rates are high https://t.co/WBDRG3jeKP Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 04 Aug 2021 13:25
- Thanks @lisaabramowicz1 IF Friday's #jobs report is similar, and it's a big IF given prior weak 1-to-1 mapping, it will shine a bright light on challenges the labor market is having in matching employees to job openings. Keep an eye also on labor force participation and earnings Link Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 04 Aug 2021 13:20
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- .@Reuters on today's #Eurozone economic data. Among the three most systemic economic regions--China, Europe, and the United States--the Eurozone has emerged for now as the most promising one growth-wise. This as #China's strong recovery slows and the #US faces new uncertainties. https://t.co/rZgXQwR4BE Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 04 Aug 2021 12:50
- US government yields remain in focus, edging lower ahead of Friday's #jobs report. Interest in what Fed Chair Clarida will say. The lead macro thinker on the Board, he's been relatively quiet as the debate on transitory #inflation/taper has intensified, including within the #Fed. Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 04 Aug 2021 12:15
- Inflation is featuring in the marketing narrative again. #economy #inflation https://t.co/tyKoFBcmm0 Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 03 Aug 2021 16:20
- .@economics on #inflation #Turkey. The higher inflation (18.95%) confronts the authorities with a familiar dilemma: Tighten monetary policy and risk a weakening in economic growth and internal debt dynamics; or Risk some combination of fx/currency pressure Link https://t.co/zHAhhwuedP Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 03 Aug 2021 12:44
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Turkey’s inflation climbed more than expected in July to nearly the level of the central bank’s benchmark interest rate, further diminishing the chances of an early cut in borrowing costs sought by the president.
- How special is the central bank policy moment in #markets? It's generally agreed price signals are highly distorted due to massive #Fed intervention and most are flying blind Yet, it's also generally agreed that it's best is to buy risk/all assets and ride more the liquidity wave Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 03 Aug 2021 12:19
- Another weekly record low for US financial conditions: The @GoldmanSachs "US Financial Conditions Index" fell by another 2.5 basis points to an all-time low of 97.04. #economy #Markets #liquidity #investing #investors #stocks #bonds #centralbanks #fed #federalreserve #finance https://t.co/lKYTfiRjvV Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 02 Aug 2021 19:49
- .#IMF staff on "How the #Pandemic Widened Global Current Account Balances." Some obvious reactions: The longer this phenomenon persists, the greater the risk of (i) potential trade tensions and (ii) vulnerable country payments challenges Link #economy @IMFNews https://t.co/GnUymsqtHx Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 02 Aug 2021 18:14
Exceptional policy support prevented a global economic depression, even as the pandemic took a heavy toll on lives and livelihoods. The global reaction, as seen in major shifts in travel, consumption, and trade, also made the world a more economically imbalanced place as reflected in current account balances—a record of a country’s transactions with the rest of the world.
In our latest External Sector Report we found that the global reaction to the pandemic further widened global current account balances—the sum of absolute deficits and surpluses among all countries—from 2.8 percent of world GDP in 2019 to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2020. Those balances are set to widen further as the pandemic continues to rage in much of the world.
If not for the crisis, global current account balances would have continued to decline. While external deficits and surpluses are not necessarily a cause for concern, excessive imbalances—larger than warranted by the economy’s...
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