• Good morning From @ChrisGiles_ @FT article:"Why central bankers keep their cool over rising house prices" It's just one illustration of the massive disconnect of asset prices from virtually everything else in the #economy (other than the expansion in central bank balance sheets) https://t.co/vo59z3G9jX
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 13 Aug 2021 11:49
  • H/T @johnauthers and thank you @tracyalloway Another example of the new round of disruptions to global supply chains that have also occurred in Vietnam and other Asian countries in recent weeks. #economy #markets #SupplyChains #SupplyChainManagement #supply #inflation Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 13 Aug 2021 01:34

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  • Our amazing Bosa! #dogs #dog #DogsofTwittter https://t.co/63e3hMhHPy
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 13 Aug 2021 01:14
  • ...PCE), consensus expectations were in line with/above yesterday's CPI data, leading many to embrace the view that inflation risk is low Meanwhile, today's hot PPI numbers--well above consensus -- attract little attention. (Both #CPI and #PPI shed some light on #PCE inflation.)
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 12 Aug 2021 18:14
  • The implicit bias inherent in #markets' #inflation narrative, while notable,wouldn't surprise most behavioral scientists given how investors and traders have been conditioned by recent history/#CentralBanks After months of consistently under-estimating #inflation (CPI, PPI and...
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 12 Aug 2021 18:09
  • RT @johnauthers: CPI ended its streak of data misses, but it's not enough to settle the debate about inflation, @elerianm says. I always li…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 12 Aug 2021 15:38
  • US July #CPI is out: Overall rate as expected (0.5% MoM, 5.4% annual); core slightly lower (0.4%, 4.3%) "Transitory #inflation" camp will point to certain items' retreat, such as used cars and airfares Others will note that, despite this,high annual rates remain largely unchanged
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 11 Aug 2021 12:38
  • .@FerroTV is right. “It feels like payroll Friday” as so many, including me, eagerly await the CPI #inflation data for the US (to be released in a few minutes). #economy #markets
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 11 Aug 2021 12:33
  • Ahead of Wednesday's much anticipated release of the latest US #CPI #inflation data: The @FT's @ChrisGiles_ on why "there are signs we will soon have to worry about rising prices despite reassuring central bank forecasts." Link #economy #markets #centralbanks https://t.co/Lv5CDk1niY
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 11 Aug 2021 03:47
  • Another one... Per the @WSJ's @NickTimiraos, @ChicagoFed President Charles #Evans joins those signaling openness to "reducing [ #FederalReserve ] asset purchases later this year." Notable as President Evans has long been regarded as a dove on the FOMC Link #qe Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 10 Aug 2021 21:57

    The economy is on track to later this year satisfy the Federal Reserve’s threshold to begin reducing its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, a top central bank official said Tuesday.

    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he expected recent employment gains to continue, which would allow the Fed to declare that the economy has achieved the “substantial further progress” it laid out last December.

    “I’d like to see a few more employment reports” before making that determination, Mr. Evans told reporters during an online news conference. “We’re coming upon a time where it’s definitely going to be appropriate to start” reducing the pace of asset purchases.

    “There’s a sense in which you want to be careful that you don’t start prematurely [and] you don’t start too late,” said Mr. Evans, who is a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.

    Mr. Evans said he expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% by...

  • RT @Quicktake: The Senate-passed infrastructure bill is fully priced in to markets, @elerianm says, adding "it's about time we modernize an…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 10 Aug 2021 19:47
  • Repeatedly humbled by the direct/indirect effects of an ultra dovish #Fed, few #trading accounts/macro #HedgeFunds seem inclined to jump on the sharp 4-session yield reversal. A similar phenomenon is visible in #stocks with shorts showing a lot more respect for retail #investors. https://t.co/LC1Pgle3ZI
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 10 Aug 2021 17:22
  • Via the Boston Globe, Jared Cohen on looking to The Founding Fathers for answers on vaccination. Link #vaccines #health #vaccinations #medicine #medicalsciences #wellness #healthcare #covid #covid19 @BostonGlobe @JaredCohen
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 10 Aug 2021 17:12

    While COVID-19 Delta variant cases rise and cities like Washington and Los Angeles return to mask mandates, many Americans remain persistently divided about the best tool we have to leave such measures behind: vaccines. The unifying example the Founders set almost 250 years ago, when a deadlier disease required riskier measures, should serve as a model for today. By inoculating themselves then, they may have saved the Republic.

    General George Washington was fighting two foes when the Continental Army encamped at Valley Forge: the British and smallpox. Washington had seen the disease devastate American troops during the Quebec Campaign, and he knew that the Revolution would be dead in its cradle if his own troops fell ill. So America’s future first president got his command inoculated in our first such large-scale, government-led campaign. Washington’s actions saved his army to fight another day.

  • In this @AP interview, the highly respected @BostonFed President Eric #Rosengren sets out the reasons why continued #Fed asset purchases (#QE) have few beneficial effects on the #economy and entail growing risks. (For more context, this from last week: Link ) Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 10 Aug 2021 13:52

    It would be understandable and conventional to assume that the ultra-dovish monetary policy that the Federal Reserve continues to pursue a year and a half after the onset of the pandemic is contributing to a strong, sustainable and inclusive recovery. This may no longer be the case. Instead, it is increasingly putting at risk not just the recovery but also President Biden’s transformational economic agenda.

    ###

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  • More #Fed chatter this morning, and understandably so given Friday's #jobs report, yesterday's JOLTS, and upcoming CPI #inflation data. With two more regional presidents calling for an earlier taper ( @Reuters reporting below), lots of interest in how Chair #Powell's view evolves https://t.co/qJsHlvkFRk
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 10 Aug 2021 12:37
  • Next on my list of books to read: “Unraveled” by @maxinebedat https://t.co/8TAUNbzqBg
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 10 Aug 2021 02:41
  • “The systems are getting disturbed.” #climatechange #climate #climatecrisis #climateemergency @UN
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Aug 2021 18:16
  • Today's JOLTS illustrate ongoing power shift to workers: Job openings up 590,000 to a record 10.1mm; Quits rate up 0.2pp to 2.7%. In sum: It’s not about labor demand. Lots of job creation ahead absent binding supply constraints (skill mismatches, mobility/childcare issues, etc).
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Aug 2021 15:56
  • Thanks @lisaabramowicz1 Illustrates the impact of both rapidly improving earnings and ample/predictable liquidity injections from #CentralBanks Note, it's not just the direct impact The indirect part comes from the trifecta of investor conditioning: BTD (buy the dip), FOMO, TINA. Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Aug 2021 14:01

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  • One of the links from this morning's conversation with Melissa Lee and Andrew Ross Sorkin on CNBC's Squawk Box. Link #economy #markets #inflation @MelissaLeeCNBC @andrewrsorkin @CNBC @SquawkCNBC
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Aug 2021 13:56
  • Among the notable price movers in #markets early this US morning ... #Oil is down some 4%--part of a general pullback in #commodities on global #growth concerns fueled by a surge in #Covid infections in #China triggering renewed travel restrictions; and #Bitcoin is up some 4% https://t.co/jvV01Bnbqt
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Aug 2021 11:21
  • Good morning. Per @MarketWatch below, PPI #inflation in #China surged 9% on an annual basis in July, somewhat higher than both the consensus expectation and the prior reeding. #economy https://t.co/8G4xOQ8GPe
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 09 Aug 2021 11:06
  • Interesting data week for #markets/global #economy including #Inflation: China's PPI (will remain elevated) and CPI for the US (expected to moderate, though how much is key); #JOLTS (#jobs opening data) and Michigan consumer sentiment; #UK #GDP; and #DeltaVariant insights
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 08 Aug 2021 19:15
  • So sad and so familiar: With a third straight loss coming on top of a disappointing few weeks, my beloved #NewYork @Mets have lost their multi-month control over first place, slipping further down the NL east division and also far from wild card contention. #LGM #mets #baseball https://t.co/uhw0JSZhZ1
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 08 Aug 2021 00:14
  • . @WSJ #jobs #employment #unemployment #jobs #recruiment #wages #earnings #economy #growth https://t.co/i8WPx6a6SF
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 07 Aug 2021 21:19
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