• Also worth watching: Economic activity data for #Europe, including #PMI and, for #Germany, GDP, IFO; US July personal income and spending data, including the PCE inflation gauge; and Lots of #Fed speakers #economy #markets #europe #us #germany #em #emergingmarkets #centralbanks Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 22 Aug 2021 16:27

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  • Big event for #markets/global #economy this week is, of course, the confab of #CentralBanks at #JacksonHole and, in particular, #Fed Chair #Powell's remarks. (Will post something on this via the @FT tomorrow.) Away from that: Interesting #inflation and policy meetings in key #EM.
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 22 Aug 2021 16:17
  • Relatively few cars out on this New York City street this morning — even for a Sunday at 9 am. Looks like all the storm warning may be having an impact. Stay safe everyone. #nyc #newyork #ny #newyorkcity #Henri #HenriHurricane https://t.co/VgEOW6lSon
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 22 Aug 2021 13:32
  • . Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 20 Aug 2021 23:51
  • From @McKinsey: "Today, it costs six times more to ship a container from China to Europe than it did at the start of 2019." #economy #inflation #shipping
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 20 Aug 2021 23:51
  • Next week’s #JacksonHole central bank symposium is now going to be virtual. #economy #markets #fed #FederalReserve
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 20 Aug 2021 21:41
  • From this week's edition of @TheEconomist Link #economy #centralbanks #markets #fed #federalreserve #ecb #growth #inflation #stocks #bonds #monetarypolicy https://t.co/lV7DM039QJ
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 20 Aug 2021 21:06

    ON AUGUST 26TH central bankers will gather for their annual Jackson Hole jamboree with the shine having come off their record. A year ago they had forestalled a financial crisis during the pandemic’s first wave. Today an inflation surge has made a mockery of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts; a parliamentary committee has said that the Bank of England has a “dangerous addiction” to buying bonds; and everybody expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to undershoot, over a period of years, its shiny new “symmetric” inflation target of 2%, unveiled in July.

  • Reunited with the #stroopwafel on #united. @united https://t.co/0t8PQa6xVS
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 19 Aug 2021 03:40
  • Via the @FT: "Rating agencies caution on corporate #debt after US #borrowing frenzy:" Link Through low rates and ample direct #liquidity injections, ultra-loose monetary policy has facilitated the supply of new debt and pushed #investors into buying more of it. https://t.co/fHJDpFXDgi
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Aug 2021 20:20
  • Takeaways include wide range of views on taper timing, the average of which is more hawkish than Chair Powell’s; and agreement that the #inflation objective has been met. Less clear: do the more recent data come close to meeting the #jobs objective;and impact of the #DeltaVariant Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Aug 2021 18:25

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  • The link to the just-released minutes of the recent (July 27-28) meeting of the #FOMC, the #FederalReserve’s policy-making committee. Reading the document now. Link #economy #markets #centralbanks #fed
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Aug 2021 18:10

    The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on July 27–28, 2021.

    The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting.

    FOMC minutes can be viewed on the Board's website at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 

    For media inquiries, call 202-452-2955

    Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee July 27-28, 2021: HTML | PDF

  • On when, why and how to taper the #FederalReserve's large liquidity injections: @FT's @colbyLsmith on why Eric Rosengren, the highly respected President of the @BostonFed, is "call[ing] for speedy taper, arguing stimulus does not address supply shortages" Link https://t.co/s893FM7i2H
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 18 Aug 2021 14:05
  • Most asset class moves in today's "risk off" #markets are internally consistent and reflective of the #RetailSales data miss...from #stocks to commodities and #fx. Notable exception is US government #bonds where yields are either unchanged or slightly higher #investing #investors https://t.co/442zWaxIS6
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 19:59
  • Yet another example--this one from the @WSJ--of how #covid is proving to be the "great unequalizer," over and over again: " #Delta Variant Threatens Small Businesses as It Slows Return-to-Office Plans." Link #economy #smallbusiness #inequality #growth #equality https://t.co/1qZz5yMeAB
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 16:44

    Tens of thousands of downtown small businesses that have been scraping by were eagerly awaiting the week of Labor Day, when many companies expected that their employees would return to the office.

    Now, the Covid-19 Delta variant is dashing hopes that workers will be back in large numbers, causing these business owners to scramble again to make rent payments and keep their operations alive.

    Some are scaling back staff hours, postponing hiring or making additional cuts so they can hold on. Others say they are ready to shut their doors for good if return-to-work plans fizzle in the coming weeks.

    “They were hanging on by their fingernails to get to September,” said Bob Luz, chief executive of the Massachusetts Restaurant Association. “We’re greatly concerned they’re not going to make it.”

    The survival of corner retail stores, coffee shops and restaurants is being watched closely by office-building owners, who are counting on traditional work patterns...

  • Yet another example--this one from the @WSJ--of how #covid is proving to be the "great unequalizer," over and over again, " #Delta Variant Threatens Small Businesses as It Slows Return-to-Office Plans." Link #economy #smallbusiness #inequality #growth #equality https://t.co/LRDwQglVVj
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 16:39

    Tens of thousands of downtown small businesses that have been scraping by were eagerly awaiting the week of Labor Day, when many companies expected that their employees would return to the office.

    Now, the Covid-19 Delta variant is dashing hopes that workers will be back in large numbers, causing these business owners to scramble again to make rent payments and keep their operations alive.

    Some are scaling back staff hours, postponing hiring or making additional cuts so they can hold on. Others say they are ready to shut their doors for good if return-to-work plans fizzle in the coming weeks.

    “They were hanging on by their fingernails to get to September,” said Bob Luz, chief executive of the Massachusetts Restaurant Association. “We’re greatly concerned they’re not going to make it.”

    The survival of corner retail stores, coffee shops and restaurants is being watched closely by office-building owners, who are counting on traditional work patterns...

  • Sustained local ownership underpinned by committed/inspiring leadership is key to the success of #IMF programs, @WorldBank projects and, most of all, "nation building." Hard to argue that this critical mix was in abundance in #Afghanistan, something that should be analyzed more.
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 16:34
  • Next book on the list. https://t.co/av1ubFWlOI
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 15:39
  • “The Conversation” by Robert Livingston is an important and compelling book, full of engaging analysis, insights, and examples as well as highly desirable solutions that, with committed leadership, highly implementable too. #dei #race #racism #diversity #inclusion #equity https://t.co/D1Z5QCHUVq
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 15:34
  • It’s not just the United States. Data out of the UK today point to both record high job vacancies (above 1 million in July) and accelerating wage growth (including an 8.7% surge in hospitality). #economy #uk #jobs #growth #employment #wages #vacancies
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 14:19
  • You can imagine my economic/policy-based reactions to this. #economy @cnbc #centralbanks #fed #federalreserve #housing #realestate #inflation https://t.co/RuIo27UkwV
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 14:09
  • Better! Will be important to assess the extent to which various drivers are at work … from meeting higher demand and rebuilding inventories to fewer supply side disruptions. #economy Link https://t.co/iFFPRY6eVY
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 13:24

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  • The data misses continue in the two growth engines of the global #economy: This morning, US #RetailSales dropped 1.1% in July (MoM) versus the consensus expectation of 0.3%. The weakness was broad-based suggesting that income effects amplified the developing #DeltaVariant effects Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 17 Aug 2021 12:49

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  • A notable recovery after a weak open took the S&P to another record high--the 49th of the year. In the process, #investors and #traders overcame the latest round of economic and geopolitical concerns. For background on the dynamics driving #markets higher: Link https://t.co/UAtlfpujRf
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Aug 2021 22:13
    Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
  • A notable recovery after a weak open took the S&P to another record high--the 49th of the year. In the process, #investors and #traders overcame the latest round of economic and geopolitical concerns. For background on the dynamics driving #market higher: Link https://t.co/6cB6RNG25h
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Aug 2021 22:08
    Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
  • One of the video clips from this morning's @SquawkCNBC discussion. Thank you @BeckyQuick , @KellyCNBC , @Stephanie_Link , and @steveliesman for the interesting conversation on the #economy, policies, and #markets. Link @CNBC #investors #fed #federalreserve
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 16 Aug 2021 15:43
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