• From @cnbc and interesting not only in the immediate sense. Expanded online offerings have often been seen as indicative of broader secular dis-inflationary forces enabled by technological innovation, big data amd, mote recently AI. These recent data raise interesting questions. https://t.co/jJR1II1PGa
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 15 Sep 2021 16:40
  • ... and here is the illustration of the qualification below. Thank you @andrewrsorkin @nytimes #economy #poverty Link https://t.co/5R7eGk0IhB
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 15 Sep 2021 13:30

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  • The move up in #oil prices continues this morning, taking to $9 a barrel the gain since the recent low of a month ago. #economy @cnbc https://t.co/xidQ62cmFM
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 15 Sep 2021 12:25
  • Per this @WSJ chart, the traditional measure of the US #poverty rates rose to 11.4% in 2020 (37 million Americans), reversing 5 straight years of declines. Qualification: The impact on wellbeing was offset by large government transfers. Important relief but may not be sustainable https://t.co/55OzUGSVY8
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 15 Sep 2021 11:04
  • Data from #China overnight suggest a sharper-than-expected moderation in the economic recovery: #RetailSales grew by 2.5% in August, well below the consensus expectation of 7%. The growth in industrial production and fixed-asset #investments was also below expectations. #economy
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 15 Sep 2021 07:34
  • The @FT on this morning's August #inflation data for the #UK: Link #economy https://t.co/kvZjHoiZxW
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 15 Sep 2021 07:24
  • Never seen her under the desk from this side. Admittedly I’m biased, but, isn’t she cute. #dogs #dog #doglife #doglover https://t.co/FuooYStSQF
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 14 Sep 2021 13:43
  • As standalones, the numbers will give comfort to the @FederalReserve/others who believe that #inflation is transitory Less comforting is what's happening to the drivers as the changes in components tend to favor more persistent elements Explains contrasting stock/bond reaction? Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 14 Sep 2021 13:08

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  • .#CPI #inflation remains elevated but better than expected: Headline came in at 0.3% MoM and an annualized 5.3%. This compares to consensus expectations of 0.4% and 5.4%, respectively. 0.1% (0.3%) MoM and 4.0% (4.2%) annualized for core (chart). Changes in components/drivers. Link https://t.co/U2ij9uYkh0
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 14 Sep 2021 12:43

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  • It's not quite the old days but it is notably different from the prior decade: Lots of interest in today's CPI #inflation data, scheduled to be released in just over 20 minutes. And it's not just among economists and policymakers. There is also now a big socio-political dimension
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 14 Sep 2021 12:13
  • A big thank you to @xpinvestimentos for hosting yesterday's interesting panel on the economic outlook and policy implications. It was a pleasure to discuss with Dr. Ben #Bernanke recent economic developments and prospects. Link #economy #inflation #growth #jobs https://t.co/4YJhQcJ9Tg
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 26 Aug 2021 11:31
  • A big thank you to @xpinvestimentos for hosting yesterday's interesting panel on the economic outlook and policy implications. It was a pleasure to discuss with Dr Ben Bernanke recent economic developments and prospects. Link #economy #inflation #growth #jobs https://t.co/gb54SiCn2L
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 26 Aug 2021 11:26

    SAO PAULO – One of the themes that has stirred the financial market the most is the fear of high inflation in the United States. While stock exchanges have had days of panic over recent data, the Federal Reserve (US central bank) continues with a speech that high inflation is a passing phenomenon.

    And two of the most important names in the market in recent years have very different views on this scenario. On the one hand, Ben Bernanke, former chairman of the Fed between 2006 and 2014, agrees with the US BC that inflation should not remain high for long, while on the other, Mohamed El-Erian, economist and chief adviser to the group Allianz is very concerned about the risk of inflation.

    During a panel at Expert XP, the two discussed their views, with Bernanke reinforcing that he sees high inflation as something fleeting, especially in a scenario where it has been well below the Fed’s 2% target for a long time, being “normal” that now it can stay a period above...

  • Good morning. The #JacksonHole confab kicks off today. While tomorrow's 10 am remarks by #Fed Chair #Powell will (understandably) attract the most attention, there's a lot to discuss on "policy in an uneven #economy" -- especially as the unevenness is so multi-faceted and urgent.
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 26 Aug 2021 11:06
  • .#ny #nyc #newyork #newyorkcity https://t.co/qJbU2zeDVF
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Wed 25 Aug 2021 01:50
  • .@FT on "trading conditions in $22tn Treasury market worsen[ing] ahead of #JacksonHole." Some may see this as a reason for the #Fed maintaining liquidity injections. It's the opposite. With the Fed owning so many Treasuries, it's yet another unintended consequence of massive QE https://t.co/T4EcsI0OLY
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Tue 24 Aug 2021 20:55
  • RT @davidgura: When the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases, @elerianm tells me, it's like when a parent takes away ?? from a kid who ha…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 20:59
  • Posted earlier this morning: Ahead of #JacksonHole later this week, thoughts on the approach that #FederalReserve Chair #Powell is likely to take for his highly anticipated keynote remarks on Friday...and what I think he should do and why Link #economy @ft #fed
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 15:58
  • RT @eliotwb: "I don't know if you've read the recent book the Cult of We. That's a fascinating book" - @elerianm
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 14:58
  • RT @CNBC: .@elerianm weighs in on Covid, inflation and the Fed: “The market deep inside is absolutely convinced this is an incredibly dovis…
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 14:28
  • From the @WSJ #economy #markets #commodities https://t.co/EgbXckAiEI
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 10:48
  • Ahead of #JacksonHole later this week, thoughts on the approach that #FederalReserve Chair #Powell is likely to take for his highly anticipated keynote remarks on Friday ... and what I think he should do and why. Link #markets #economy #Fed #centralbanks @FT https://t.co/1r0761dEQ0
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 10:38
  • Surprised about the robustness of #stocks given concerns about the #DeltaVariant's growth impact, more persistent #inflation, and more #Fed officials favoring an earlier #taper? Here, from a week ago in @bopinion, is why you shouldn't be, at least for now: Link
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 10:18
    Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
  • The @WSJ on a surge in "private-label #mortgages" driven both by demand and by supply. Yet another indication of #investors stretching for yield, robust activity for #WallStreet firms, and rising risks to longer-term financial stability. Link #economy #markets https://t.co/tAgBNDVbQJ
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 09:58

    Wall Street is diving back into the business of turning home loans into bonds, injecting new competition into a market long dominated by government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac .

    The so-called private-label mortgage market—in which financial firms serve the middleman role of creating giant pools of loans and selling them to investors—had more than $42 billion of issuance in the second quarter. That is the most since the pandemic started and almost the most for any quarter since the last financial crisis, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry research firm.

    This market still made up a mere 4% of all mortgage bonds issued last quarter. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which issue bonds that come with a federal guarantee that investors will get paid, remain the industry’s dominant players.

    But mortgage investors expect the private market to keep growing as a repository of loans that Fannie and Freddie can’t or won’t...

  • Good morning. Among the notable price action in financial markets this early Monday morning, #bitcoin is trading above $50,000. #cryptocurrency #crypto #trading #blockchain #btc #currency #cryptocurrencies #ethereum #exchange #markets https://t.co/SXsivEv5so
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 23 Aug 2021 09:08
  • The @wsj on why "labor shortages, raw materials’ scarcity make supermarket supplies unpredictable" and why "some executives say problems are worse than spring 2020’s dearth." Link #economy #markets #SupplyChain #supply #inflation #workers #jobs #employment https://t.co/MAWqF23KW9
    Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 22 Aug 2021 19:57

    Grocery-store chains are still battling supply challenges that some executives said are as bad as what they saw in spring 2020, when hoarding left holes in stocks of some staples.

    Industry executives say new problems are arising weekly, driven by shortages of labor and raw materials. Groceries including frozen waffles and beverages remain scarce as some food companies anticipate disruptions lasting into 2022. A wider range of products is running short and logistical challenges are compounding for many retailers.

    Donny Rouse, chief executive of Louisiana-based Rouses Markets, said he is struggling to fill shelves as his company runs low on everything from pet food to canned goods. The chain of more than 60 supermarkets is sometimes receiving as little as 40% of what it orders, prompting Mr. Rouse and his staff to try to secure products earlier and more often. Before the pandemic, Rouses received well over 90% of its orders.

    “It is difficult for...

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