• Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here: Link https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 09:14

    Late in the US session, the risk rally faded into the Wall Street close after President Trump announced that he will hold a press conference on US measures against China concerning the recent passing of the Hong Kong Security Bill. In turn, with sanctions against Chinese officials likely to be the main outcome, alongside a potential change to Hong Kong’s special trading status with the US. This will mark a fresh escalation in the tensions between the US and China, where the latter has already vowed to announce countermeasures if the US interferes with internal affairs. Therefore, risks are rising for a pullback in risk sentiment.

  • U.S. Market Analyst at Link, Shain Vernier covers - ?? Safe haven assets in volatile markets ?? Central banks and governments ?? How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: Link https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 07:34
    The FX Leaders team of expert analysts cover the Forex, Cryptocurrency, Commodity, and Indices markets 24/7. Providing real-time market analysis and trade ideas, as well as high-quality forex signals and an all-inclusive, learn center for beginner and advanced traders.
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: Link https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 07:34

    The Dow Jones closed the month of May with an encouraging performance, largely built on the back of accommodative fundamentals. As a result, the Industrial Average has developed a technical picture that appears largely constructive to further gains in the month ahead – assuming the fundamental forces driving the market remain somewhat similar.

    With that in mind, the Dow may look to continue its ascent within the rising channel originating in April. While price briefly broke below in mid-May, a subsequent retest a week later would suggest the level still maintains some technical merit. Thus, bears may have to negotiate two technical levels if they are to post a committed attempt lower. First at the nearby Fibonacci level around 25,222 and second at the ascending lower bound near 24,625.

  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: Link https://t.co/56oUP6we9U
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 06:34
    The US Treasury yield curve has been impacted by the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary stimulus efforts, keeping the short-end of the curve relatively calm during a period of otherwise significant volatility.As such, there is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Traders don’t expect the Federal Reserve to deal with the crisis by going into negative interest rate territory; no rate moves are discounted through January 2021.
  • The #DAX has now closed the gap from the beginning of March with the index breaking above 61.8% fib at 11592. Get your DAX market update from @JMcQueenFX here: Link https://t.co/CkxPZn1v3t
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 04:29

    Risk on rally gains further traction across Europe after the reports noted that the European Commission will propose a recovery fund at EUR 750bln, with grants making up EUR 500bln, alongside EUR 250bln of loans. Among the key beneficiaries of this announcement have been BTPs, with the Bund-BTP spread tightening below 200bps as fragmentation risks fade. Italy has reportedly been allocated EUR 82bln in grants and EUR 91bln, which is sizeable for one of Europe’s weak links.

  • Emerging market currencies haven’t been treated equally by the effects of global contagion, even if most have suffered to some degree. However withdrawal of investment flows could hit them all. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: Link https://t.co/9CV6iZt40j
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 03:19
    Emerging market currencies have seen investors abandon them for better known quantities as Covid hitSome have already fought back, most remain under pressureHowever, even a recovering world may mean significantly lower investment flows
  • Hopes are high for deeper European economic integration as the continent battles back from the coronavirus slowdowns – but will it hold? What impact can this have on #Euro? Find out from @JStanleyFX here: Link https://t.co/gngm5tKqjz
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 02:34

    As the world continues the healing process from the novel coronavirus, history is being made in Europe. We don’t yet know what the story will say, but we did get an important chapter in that theme over the past couple of weeks as the European economy has received aid from the fiscal and, looking to next Thursdsay’s ECB meeting, possibly the monetary side of the ledger, as well.

    The single currency has been beset by multiple items of political uncertainty in its short 20-year life. And this uncertainty has created strife within the bloc, particularly around the 2011 European Financial Crisis in which the ‘PIIGS’ of Europe were put in the difficult spot of facing economic pressure without the ability to weaken their own currency. More recently, the potential for fireworks between Brussels and Rome grabbed the world’s attention, as the European Commission looked to put a cap on Italy’s spending; bringing to question just how sovereign a country within the European Union may...

  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: Link https://t.co/iL7xlHLBiF
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 01:34
    AUD at risk as Australia-China relations deteriorate, Beijing strikes with economic arsenalEuro will be closely watching progress on 500b recovery fund as North-South divide persistsEUR/AUD outlook bearish as pair hovers near-three year low with layers of resistance on top
  • #Gold has a short-term bullish set-up that may play nicely with USD weakening. The longer and shorter-term path of least resistance remains higher. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: Link https://t.co/B4MVrg8f6i
    DailyFX Sat 30 May 2020 00:34

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the verge of confirming the breakdown of a nearly two-month range. The trading has been brutal for those looking for trend set-ups, but that could be about to change should we see a daily close below 98.27. As the new week begins it will be important to monitor this situation; sustained trade below could have the index quickly moving down 2-4%.

  • The AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: Link https://t.co/Fo1wlWyz8r
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 23:29
    AUD at risk as Australia-China relations deteriorate, Beijing strikes with economic arsenalEuro will be closely watching progress on 500b recovery fund as North-South divide persistsEUR/AUD outlook bearish as pair hovers near-three year low with layers of resistance on top
  • The US Dollar is attempting to find direction against the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah as technical levels hold. The Malaysian Ringgit eyes a key trend line. Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: Link https://t.co/4ofHIpGiTm
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 22:24

    The Singapore Dollar remains in a consolidation setting against the US Dollar, a dynamic that has been occurring since early April. Prices are oscillating within a channel where the outer boundary of support sits around 1.4070 with corresponding resistance roughly at 1.4329. Confirming a technical breakout in either direction may be key to establishing the next dominant move. For the time being, the descent in USD/SGD since March has notably slowed. Breaching support or resistance exposes 1.4009 or 1.4415 respectively.

  • The Dollar Index has broken below a multi-week consolidation / the May opening-range lows and keeps the focus lower heading into June. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: Link https://t.co/SzMeNFyPyp
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 21:34
    US Dollar technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday ChartsUSD breaks below multi-week consolidation range / monthly range lowsDXY risk is lower while below May open- initial support targets in view
  • Amid escalating China tension, Australian Dollar risk reversals indicate that the bullish bias recently enjoyed by AUD/USD could soon unwind and pressure spot prices back lower. Get your AUD/USD technical analysis from @RichDvorakFX here: Link https://t.co/cIFgSuoWF2
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 20:29

    Australian Dollar bulls have kept the Aussie bid since the sentiment-linked currency bottomed out roughly two months ago. Spot AUD/USD price action has surged nearly 20% off its March 28 swing low as trader appetite for risk continues to recover from the recent coronavirus panic. Relentless strength in the Australian Dollar over the last several trading sessions, which looks largely fueled by coronavirus vaccine hope, has essentially erased the 1,000-pip plunge against its US Dollar peer notched earlier this year.

  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: Link https://t.co/kYe8QpfX0K
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 19:54
    The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. It’s likely that the BOC, RBA, and RBNZ keep rates at these levels, augmented by extraordinary policy otherwise (e.g. quantitative easing (QE)), through 2020 and beyond.Retail trader positioningsuggests that the commodity currencies may still have gains ahead of them yet.
  • USD/MXN: Failure to garner momentum beyond 22.83 vs MXN on an up-move would suggest it only corrective in nature and that the path of least resistance is lower. Get your $USDMXN market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: Link https://t.co/OGm0X9s3hI
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 18:29

    USD/MXN along with other $/EM pairs has been front and center of the dollar’s decline, the exact opposite of when the World’s reserve currency was steam rolling emerging market currencies during the coronavirus panic.

    Just a pullback or more? If the pressure continues and we see developed market currencies join in full force, then a significant reversal across the board may be in place. This will take some time to develop before we’ll know more with any conviction. Dollar declines have been short-lived the past couple of years.

    Looking at the technical backdrop in USD/MXN, the 2017 high high/top of multi-year trianlge is at its feet. A break below 22 could lead to the 200-day down at 20.53. First, though, it would be ideal to see USD try and recover only to stall and roll over again. Failure to garner momentum beyond 22.83 vs MXN on an up-move would suggest it only corrective in nature and that the path of least resistance is lower.

    At the immediate moment it...

  • USD/CAD holds near the monthly low (1.3728) after snapping the range bound price action carried over from April, but Canada’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may undermine the recent decline. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here: Link https://t.co/9cZIsntHqs
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 17:39

    USD/CAD holds near the monthly low (1.3728) after snapping the range bound price action carried over from April, but Canada’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may undermine the recent decline in the exchange rate as the update is expected to show the biggest contraction since the data series began in 1961.

    USD/CAD appears to be stuck in a narrow range after clearing the April low (1.3850), but fresh data prints coming out of Canada may influence the exchange rate as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz tells Canadian lawmakers that the central bank is “prepared to augment the scale of any of its programs if needed.”

    The update to Canada’s GDP report is anticipated to show a 10% decline in the growth rate following the 0.3% expansion during the last three-months of 2019, and signs of a looming recession may put pressure on the BoC to further support the economy as the central bank pledges to “create the...

  • RT @JeremyNaylor_IG: #RiskEventoftheWeek - 1 June @DailyFX discusses the #ECB meeting and the potential for indications of failure of final…
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 16:54
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here: Link https://t.co/VbSE53jSoH
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 16:04

    Late in the US session, the risk rally faded into the Wall Street close after President Trump announced that he will hold a press conference on US measures against China concerning the recent passing of the Hong Kong Security Bill. In turn, with sanctions against Chinese officials likely to be the main outcome, alongside a potential change to Hong Kong’s special trading status with the US. This will mark a fresh escalation in the tensions between the US and China, where the latter has already vowed to announce countermeasures if the US interferes with internal affairs. Therefore, risks are rising for a pullback in risk sentiment.

  • Hey traders! What are we wrapping up this week with US and China tensions? Will we have a dramatic opening in Monday? Get your market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist, @JohnKicklighter ? https://t.co/FBTUFu6r3c
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 15:13
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: Link https://t.co/DGS11IMvcd
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 14:28

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the verge of confirming the breakdown of a nearly two-month range. The trading has been brutal for those looking for trend set-ups, but that could be about to change should we see a daily close below 98.27. As the new week begins it will be important to monitor this situation; sustained trade below could have the index quickly moving down 2-4%.

  • GBP/USD: cluster of recent lows around the 1.2160 level and the Tuesday’s low print at 1.2190 may act as the first level of support for the pair. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: Link https://t.co/39532trXKn
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 13:08

    The EU and UK trade negotiating teams will meet for a final round of talks next week with little movement expected from either side. There remains a lack of progress on the three main areas of contention – fisheries, a level playing field and the future role of the European Court of Justice - and with both sides adamant that the other should change their stance, this game of ‘you first’ may eventually see the UK leaving the EU with no trade agreement, a situation that neither party wants. It is expected that UK PM Boris Johnson will join next week talks in an effort to break the current stalemate, but with both sides digging their heels in, expectations for progress are low. While this remains the case, Sterling will find it increasingly difficult to push higher and any short-term gains will likely be capped.

    The daily GBP/USD chart shows the pair trading in a tight range this week with the 50-day moving average curbing any move higher. A short-term series of higher...

  • The US Dollar is attempting to find direction against the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah as technical levels hold. The Malaysian Ringgit eyes a key trend line.Get your #ASEAN currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: Link https://t.co/lEvn7mElgG
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 12:33

    The Singapore Dollar remains in a consolidation setting against the US Dollar, a dynamic that has been occurring since early April. Prices are oscillating within a channel where the outer boundary of support sits around 1.4070 with corresponding resistance roughly at 1.4329. Confirming a technical breakout in either direction may be key to establishing the next dominant move. For the time being, the descent in USD/SGD since March has notably slowed. Breaching support or resistance exposes 1.4009 or 1.4415 respectively.

  • Gold prices have continued to push higher as expectations have built for global Central Banks to remain very loose and passive with monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: Link https://t.co/oqAjsNXNBY
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 10:28
    Gold prices are up by more than 50% from the August, 2018 low. Gold prices have continued to push higher as expectations have built for global Central Banks to remain very loose and passive with monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Gold prices have moved well into overbought territory on the monthly chart, to levels not seen since Gold prices topped-out in August of 2011.
  • U.S. Market Analyst at Link, Shain Vernier covers - ?? Safe haven assets in volatile markets ?? Central banks and governments ?? How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: Link https://t.co/UD51O3me1f
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 08:33
    The FX Leaders team of expert analysts cover the Forex, Cryptocurrency, Commodity, and Indices markets 24/7. Providing real-time market analysis and trade ideas, as well as high-quality forex signals and an all-inclusive, learn center for beginner and advanced traders.
  • The S&P 500 is approaching secondary breakout targets up here and the rally may be vulnerable heading into uptrend resistance. Get your S&P500 technical analysis from @MBForex here: Link https://t.co/GgmPAcuTVe
    DailyFX Fri 29 May 2020 06:03

    Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; S&P 500 Index on Tradingview

    Technical Outlook: In my last S&P 500 Price Outlook we noted that the, “S&P 500 rebound is approaching key resistance at a range which has already offered a false breakout- use caution here.” The region in focus was 2932- a level defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range. A false breakout in late-April was followed by multiple attempts in May trade with a break / close above 18th clearing the way for a larger price advance.

    The rally is now approaching the December lows at 3069 with channel resistance looming just higher – the immediate advance may be vulnerable into this threshold. Monthly open support rests at 2890 with a break / close below channel support needed to validate a reversal. A breach higher from here exposes subsequent topside resistance objectives at 3137 and the yearly open at 3219.

    Notes: A closer look at S&P 500 price...

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