Everyone comes to the forex market for a reason, ranging between solely for entertainment to becoming a professional trader. I started out aspiring to be a full-time, self-sufficient forex trader. I had been taught the 'perfect' strategy. I spent months testing it and backtests showed how I could make $25,000-$35,000 a year off of a $10,000 account. My plan was to trade forex for a living and let my account compound until I was so well off, I wouldn't have to work again in my life. I was dedicated and I committed myself to the plan 100%.
Sparing you the details, my plan failed. It turns out that trading 300k lots on a $10,000 account is not very forgiving. I lost 20% of my account in three weeks. I didn't know what hit me. Something was wrong. Luckily, I stopped trading at that point and was fortunate enough to land a job with a forex broker. I spent the next couple of years working with traders around the world and continued to educate myself about the forex market. It...
When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. This is because the forex market is one of the most liquid and largest in the world and as a result there is no one single way to trade.
Knowing when to buy and sell forex depends on many factors, but there tends to be more volume when markets are volatile because of the associated higher risk. This article will explore the concept of buying and selling currencies using practical examples as well as additional resources to boost your forex trading experience.
Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. These concepts will be explored in this article to shed some light on the mechanics of slippage in forex, as well as how traders can mitigate its adverse effects.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For August, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which capture trading during the winddown of aggressive central bank intervention beginning with the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the environment we find ourselves in now.
Nevertheless, as has been the case for the past five months, ongoing ahistorical conditions reduce the reliability of using seasonality as a meaningful price action indicator. After all, global commodity markets remain distressed amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and global supply chains are still dealing with China’s zero COVID strategy. We must conclude that strategies based around seasonality tendencies remain less viable than in years past.
Gold prices survived their first fundamental obstacle last week, weathering the blowout July US nonfarm payrolls report. A second fundamental obstacle has now appeared, with the July US inflation report due out on Wednesday. Like the July US jobs report preventing a bullish breakout for gold prices, the incoming US inflation data could likely prove make-or-break for gold prices in the short-term.
A deceleration in US inflation rates could prevent a further rise in Fed rate hike odds and thus US Treasury yields, weighing on US real yields, which would be a positive development for gold prices. On the other hand, signs of persistently elevated US price pressures could provide a new spark for Fed rate hike odds and US Treasury yields, allowing US real yields to rally and sinking gold prices. This week, what’s good for the US economy – lower inflation – is also good news for gold prices, as it translates into the perception a less hawkish Federal...
The euro appears to be in a slightly better position against the Japanese yen, thanks in part to improved risk appetite and lower demand for safe-haven assets in global financial markets, but if we have learned anything this year it is that sentiment can turn sour at a moment's notice. In any case, focusing on recent price action, EUR/JPY is probing the 137.60 area at the start of the week, a key ceiling defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June/August decline. If buyers manage to clear this technical hurdle in the coming days, the next resistance to consider comes at 138.88, followed by 140.17.
On the other hand, if EUR/JPY is rejected from current levels and resumes its descent, initial support appears at 136.90/136.70. If this floor fails to hold, selling impetus could pick up, setting the stage for a slump towards the psychological 135.00 level.
EUR/JPY Chart Prepared Using TradingView
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview
Notes: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was, “testing a key resistance pivot for third time here and once again the immediate long-bias may be vulnerable while below.” Price turned from key resistance at 1.2975-1.3023 that week with the decline marking an outside-weekly reversal last week off support at the June low-week close at 1.2784. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the August opening-range for guidance with the threat remaining for a deeper correction within the broader uptrend.
A break lower from here would expose key support objectives at the 52-week moving average / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range at 1.2709/16 and the lower parallel / objective yearly open at ~1.2640- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Critical resistance remains at the median-line...
It’s been a brisk run over the past seven weeks in US equities. Stocks bottomed in the middle of June, with the Nasdaq setting a fresh two-year-low the day after the FOMC rate decision last month and the S&P 500 setting it’s low a day later.
Since then, bulls have been large and in-charge. What initially looked like a short-covering rally has extended and is now going into its eighth week, with the S&P 500 having jumped by as much as 14.62% and the Nasdaq 100 having gained 20.92% over the same period of time. So, technically, that makes for a bull market in the Nasdaq at 20%.
At source of the discussion is Fed policy and how close the bank might be to some type of a pivot. As US economic data started to turn in Q2, the building hope was that the Fed might pause their rate hike strategy in order to give the rate hikes they’ve already done more time to transmit into the economy. There were a few comments from Chair Powell at the last FOMC press...
Gold starts the week pretty much unchanged from Friday’s closing levels with the precious metal changing hands around $1,775/oz. Friday’s out-sized US NFP release (+528k new jobs vs. +250k expectations) sent gold tumbling and stopped the recent rally in the precious metal in its tracks. Gold has added over $100/oz. since July 21 as longer-dated US Treasury yields tumbled on growing recession fears. The closely watched UST2/10s yield spread is currently quoted around minus 40 basis points, a strong clue from the fixed income market that a recession is on the way in the US, whatever definition is used.
Europe’s bond investors, caught between a central bank raising rates for the first time since 2011 and the prospect of a recession are braving some of the wildest swings on record by some metrics. The yield on Germany’s benchmark bond has oscillated 10 basis points on almost 80 days this year something that happened only once in 2021. Hedging costs across euro rates markets have soared.“Rates volatility has seen an explosion in activity,” said Phillip Pearce, an associate at Validus Risk Management. “Without any firm guidance, the market is free to price in whatever the data warrants.”The fallout is palpable. Investors say it’s becoming more difficult to execute orders in some corners of the market. European companies are reluctant to issue debt or buy prohibitively expensive protection against price swings. While volatile conditions are what traders usually dream of, some market players are hesitating to take on larger positions, creating a self-amplifying cycle of deeper...
GBP/USD DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG
Although sterling has appreciated against the dollar this morning, the damage from Friday’s U.S. NFP move has kept the pound depressed. I do not expect much in terms of price volatility on cable leading up to Wednesdays core inflation release. Technical indicators do not currently favor any particular directional bias which could indulge short-term trading setups.
Key resistance levels:
Trading bias is a predisposition or perspective of the financial markets whereby traders believe there is a higher probability of a certain outcome as opposed to any other alternate possibilities.
These trading biases are determined by technical and/or fundamental factors that support a specific outlook that explains market behaviour. This often relates to market trends being either bullish/bearish which signals appropriate trading strategy and style.
Our forex economic calendar is fully customizable, helping you keep track of the exact data you’re interested in. Select specific time zones and currencies of interest and apply filters to refine results and fit your strategy.
Prefer commodities, stocks or indices? Our economic calendar showcases relevant events to help you trade these markets too. You can also dig deeper into global financial trends and events with our latest news and analysis articles. Learn more on how to read the economic calendar.
Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Interpreting charts can be intimidating for novice traders, so understanding basic technical analysis is essential. This article reveals popular types of technical analysis charts used in forex trading, outlining the foundations and uses of these chart types.
Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic, which is problematic when making trading decisions.
So what is FOMO in trading? It’s the fear traders get when they think they might be missing out on big opportunities, or that other traders are more successful. Traders who understand FOMO, where it comes from and how they react to it are in a strong position to tackle it at its root cause: the innermost workings of their own mind.
This article will help you get to grips with your FOMO, offering solutions to stop it in its tracks – or even to prevent it from arising in the first place.
Stock market liquidity is an important concept for traders to understand. Knowing the stocks that are easiest to convert to cash without the price being affected means you will be in a stronger position to buy and sell. In this piece, we’ll explore stock market liquidity in depth, reveal some of the most liquid stocks and the benefits of trading them, as well as covering the differences between stock market liquidity and FX liquidity.
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