- Certainly not ruling out that recession risks could force BOE to cut rates next yearBut even then, will continue with QT i.e. selling of giltsThat is consistent with the communication, QT will continue in the backgroundQT does impart some further monetary tightening, at the marginBut it is a background event compared to changes in the bank rate
After the hustle and bustle from the US jobs report at the end of last week, markets are settling down into a slower pace this week with little appetite to really chase any firmer convictions. All eyes are on the US CPI data tomorrow and there is little interest to push for any moves until we get to the key risk event it seems.
Major currencies are looking subdued, trapped in narrow ranges while equities are calm and steady with bonds little changed so far today. It is shaping up to be one of those summer days in Europe where there is little to really digest or talk about.
I think at this stage, one can assume China will at least keep up some military presence surrounding the Taiwan island for the foreseeable future. There were Chinese warplanes and warships detected around the island yesterday and it looks like the tense situation will continue for the time being.
The changes so far on the day (less than 10 pips) and the narrow ranges kind of speaks for itself. There is a sort of subdued tone surrounding major currencies today though at least the aussie and kiwi are holding gains from yesterday. That said, AUD/USD is still keeping below 0.7000 so there's still some technical limitation to the move.
US stocks had a bit of a mixed showing as the return of meme stocks has been something to note. US futures are slightly higher today but there still seems to be a lack of appetite in general.
- RT @AvidCommentator: This is an extremely ugly chart from the NAB business survey. Purchase costs, labour costs and final product prices a…
ForexLive Tue 09 Aug 2022 03:32 - Russia told the United States on Monday it would not allow its weapons to be inspected under the START nuclear arms control treaty for the time being because of travel restrictions imposed by Washington and its allies.Russia remained fully committed to complying with all the provisions of the treaty, it added.
- says the Chinese drills are preparation for an invasion of Taiwandrills a gross violation of international lawTaiwan has the right to maintain relationships with other countriesTaiwan has the right to participate in the international communityChin is targeting Taiwan at present but its ambitions go beyond Taiwan
- t was a subdued day across major FX in the timezone here. The excuse du jour seems to be waiting on the US CPI data coming up on Wednesday US time. Its such a good excuse it’ll probably get trotted out again tomorrow here!
- Goldman Sachs on the yen: "After last week's rates rally, we see upside risks to USD/JPY on a tactical horizon, as our rates strategists think risks to real yields are still skewed to the upside, which should continue to exert more influence over the Yen than recession risks, and our models suggest USD/JPY could rise close to 140 again under our baseline scenario of 10y yields rising to 3.3% by the end of the year,""Over the longer run, we still think there is a case for JPY appreciation resulting from a significant slowdown in the US that drives yields lower or a change in the Boys monetary policy, which is currently holding JPY at deeply undervalued levels on our models,"
Google search is fine for me, but that's an example of availability bias (which applies to markets also ... may as well make this post of some value to traders!). Anyway. the reports seem to be related to the problems at Google's facility in Iowa. Other reports say the explosion happened during the afternoon local time. Which would make this pretty old news.
- USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD/CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.The previous close was 6.7508
While not directly applicable to forex, the news of a judge granting a search warrant to the FBI given probably cause of criminal behaviour is attracting a lot of interest. Given Trump's close links to Putin and other nefarious actors, his attempts at a coup, his leading of a violent cop-killing insurrection, and other activites, there could be more to this than meets the eye. I guess we'll find out in time.
Reuters have a recap up of all the legal investigations into former President Trump. Allegations include:
The Secret Service facilitated access to the Florida Trump property. But did not take part in the investigation or search.
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This is not directly related to FX but given Trump's close ties to Putin it perhaps has geopolitical ramifications. Thre is more on what material the FBI was seeking in the post 2 linked above.
Newswires carry the headline from China's financial (state-sponsored) media. saying the People's Bank of China is unlikely to lower interest rates or the Reserve Requirement Ration (RRR).
Lowering either would be an easing of policy. Not coming though according to this.
The raid is apparently related to the illegal removal of documents and evidence from the White House when Trump was removed as president. The Justice Department has been investigating the discovery of boxes of records containing classified information that were taken to Mar-a-Lago after Trump's presidency.
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Trump playing golf a couple of weeks ago.
- total sales +2.3% higher y/y after drops in the previous 3 months Like-for-like sales (which adjusts for changes in floor space and shops closed due to lockdown restrictions) +1.6% y/y after falling for four months
- RT @gtconway3d: Please retweet if your home or office wasn't searched today by the Federal Bureau of Investigation pursuant to a warrant is… ForexLive Mon 08 Aug 2022 23:20
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I really shouldn't treat this in jest. This is likely a response from the FBI to allegations made surrounding Trump's attempted coup back on January 6 2020. There may be a case against the hapless former president re treason and sedition charges.
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