BoA on G10 FX, a quick snippet view:

We expect the USD to remain strong for the rest of this year. The overheating US economy and the hawkish Fed have a lot to do with the strong USD.For the USD to weaken, the Fed has to be more concerned about growth than about inflation, and we are not there yet.

A snippet from RaboBank on the euro and USD.

Analysts at the bank are expected 1.01 on EUR/USD to remain as support but see a drop under parity again in the next 3 months (it's a one to three months view). under parity will require:

Morgan Stanley Research discusses maintains a bullish bias on USD, expressing that via short EUR/USD exposure in spot targeting a move towards 0.97.

"Regional challenges continue to grow. Risks to Eurozone gas shutoff continue to rise, which should weigh on local growth, while Covid-19 policies in Asia may continue to restrict the recovery....This should be positive for the USD. Indeed, for investors increasingly looking for safety, the "King Dollar" may indeed still be king. This could even be true across asset classes," MS notes.

"Say an investor is looking for a safe haven and she is choosing between the USD in FX or a Treasury note. Both are often viewed as safe havens, but it's worth remembering that the USD has positive returns relative to Treasuries in a world where rates keep rising," MS adds

The major US indices are ending the day with mixed results. Similar to Friday to trade where the Dow rose modestly, and the S&P and NASDAQ fell, that is the same pattern today. However the gains and losses were very modest with -0.12% the biggest change. Him him him him him him him

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

There was some early optimism in equities as meme stocks took off and that led to some broader USD selling. The fall in Treasury yields also added to the dollar slide.

But others saw the rip in meme stocks as an ominous sign for Fed policy and 'financial conditions'. The thinking being that if there's a dash for trash, then the Fed can afford to hike another 75 bps.

For its part, the Fed funds curve didn't move much as some of the non-farm payrolls price action reversed.

AUD/USD was particularly strong throughout the day despite Apple warning about supply delays due to changing Taiwan policies. AUD is often a proxy for China but it didn't act that way today as the market cheered some inbound copper M&A.

Retail sales data from New Zealand (2245 GMT) and business conditions & confidence from Australia are on the calendar for Tuesday, 9 August 2022. Neither of which is likely to move around the forex too much upon release.

The RBNZ meet next on August 17 and the RBA on September 6. Both Banks will be raising their cash rates again. I'll have more to come on this separately.

The current yield current yield is at 2.768%. The end of April low and May lows came in near 2.706%. A move back below that area and then the 38.2% at 2.6719% would tilt the bias more to the downside going forward.

So 100 day MA is resistance above and the 38.2% is the low of the support target.

Bank of America Global Research makes the case for higher FX volatility for longer.

"A number of central banks have recently stressed that monetary policy is data dependent and not on a pre-set path. This is a natural consequence of policy rates being closer to neutral levels and the uncertainty around the growth-inflation outlook. It also means there will be a stronger correlation between economic data surprises and G10 FX, something that has been evident in recent months," BofA notes.

The move back to the upside has seen the pair move up to test the high from Friday at $90.75. Just above that is the falling 100 hour MA at $90.82. Get and stay above that MA would increase the bullish bias.

The AUDUSD is trending higher in trading today, with little in the way of corrective price action.

Looking at the 5-minute chart, the biggest pause/correction intraday occured in the European morning session when the price reached the 200 hour MA (overlay at 0.6964). The price corrected lower and entered into the 38.2-50% of the last leg higher (see yellow area between 0.64499 and 0.69547). However, buyers came in, the price started a new run to the upside away from the 200 hour MA.

A surprise breakthrough in Iran-nuclear deal talks could be at hand.

After five days of indirect negotiations in Vienna, there's a 'final' draft text that will be taken back to national capitals. Politico has much of the details and highlights some of the snags.

On the topside, getting above the 100 hour moving average is the next step for the buyers. Above that, and the 200 hour moving average 1.21548. A downward sloping trendline also cuts across between the moving averages.

If the price is above to extend above both the moving averages - and stay above - the buyers would increase their bias control.

ON Friday, the low price fell into a swing area between 1.2002 and 1.20192 and bounced. The natural support at 1.2000 also helped to put a limit to the downside. The price move higher today has seen ups and downs which suggests a battle with the sellers. It is not a one-way street but it does have a bullish tilt.

US yields continue the move lower with the 10 year down -7 bps now. The 2 year is down -13 basis points which is weakening the USD and also giving the stocks a boost. The Nasdaq is up 160 points o the will r 1.26% now.

This is a composite release so it doesn't tell us anything we don't know. Unlike non-farm payrolls, it shows some weakening in US employment but it's from an extremely strong base.

From the release: