Yesterday, the price tested the 100 day MA and last Thursday the 100 day MA was also tested. However, each test backed off and closed below the MA level. Today's close is the lowest over that period.

The buyers had their shot....I mean shots. Getting above the MA would have tilted the bias more to the upside. However, those shots missed. That's bearish and the close today is reflective of those missed shots.

A report is circulating that the UK has drawn up plans for potential power cuts to homes and industries in January. That comes with earlier reports about Norway cutting back on energy supplies due to low rainfall.

The report says it's the 'worst case scenario' that officials are planning for.

The AUDUSD is banging against the 200 hour MA on the downside today. The 200 hour MA comes in at 0.69659. There have been small breaks of that MA, but momentum has faded on each break and each time the price has pushed higher after the tests.

It will take a move below that MA level and the rising 100 hour MA to tip the pair to the downside once again. Absent that, and the buyers remain more in control.

MUFG Research discusses GBP outlook and maintains a bearish bias in the near-term.

"The pound along with most of the rest of G10 FX is broadly stable so far this morning with little news to drive volatility – a feature that may persist until we get the key inflation data from the US tomorrow...Separate reports highlighted the potential strains ahead for consumers being squeezed by rising costs of essentials. Research from property site Zoopla revealed rental growth of nearly 20% in inner London in Q1 2022 and 10% in outer London growth in Q1 2019 was 2%. That is fuelling significant increases in rents reinforced by a marked drop in supply," MUFG notes

The GBPUSD is trying to push above a topside downward sloping trendline along with its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). Both those levels come near 1.2114. Get above with momentum would have traders looking toward the 200 hour moving average 1.21524. The high from yesterday at 1.2137 would also be a upside target. Recall from yesterday, that high price stalled right near its 100 hour moving average (blue line)) and found willing sellers.

On the downside today, in the Asian session, the price tried to move below a downside target near 1.20619 (see blue numbered circles), but found support buyers. The move back above the swing area between 1.20866 and 1.20989 turned the sellers to buyers (see green numbered circles). That area is now a close intraday risk area. Stay above, gives the buyers the bias tilt.

The stock declines are deepening a bit with the NASDAQ reaching down -1.3%. The S&P index is down -0.45% and the Dow industrial average is now lower after a early rise. It is currently down -0.13%.

The S&P index is looking to test its 100 day moving average of 4114.17. It's a low price reached for 4118.95 so far.

The USDCAD has banged against the 100 hour moving average on 3 separate occasions during today's trading. In the Asian session, the high price stalled against the moving average. In the European morning session, the price stalled against the 100 hour moving average. And most recently, the current hourly bar stalled against its 100 hour moving average.

So there been a 3 knocks on the 100 hour moving average door, and each time no one answered.

Markets just don't sit in a area forever. Markets are not meant to go nowhere, but are meant to go somewhere. That is how traders make money. So when the market non trends prepare for a trend. Trends are where the most money can be made (and lost if on the wrong side). Knowing that and preparing for it is an advantage to your trading. The price just needs a shove.

So what is the bias?

Looking at the hourly chart, the low today was above the high of a swing area that is centered between 134.314 and 134.587. Just below the lower extreme is the rising 100 hour moving average which is working toward that extreme. That currently comes in at 134.25.

The pairs inability to move into that range is a positive/bullish bias tilt. The problem is the pair is having trouble getting and staying above the 135.00 level. The 135.100 is also a target to get and stay above in the short-term if the buyers are to take more control and push the price toward higher targets including...

Traders were rewarded today with the basing of the pair near its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) at 1.01949 currently.

Admittedly, the Asian session did trade mostly below its 200 hour moving average above (at 1.0203) and it's 100 hour moving average below (at 1.01949), but traders were rewarded in the European session when the price started to based one last time against the 100 hour moving average, move above its 200 hour moving average and race to the upside.

The video above is a review of the markets, and preview of the technicals for the major currency pairs for the day which outlines the bias and levels in play.

If you like or don't like this video, please put a comment. Your feedback is appreciated.

Good fortune with your trading.

It's August and central bankers are on vacation. Combine that with a thin economic calendar and there isn't much to move markets today. Further, tomorrow's CPI report is a big one and today's trade will be all about positioning ahead of that.

The lone item on the agenda today is the US Q2 productivity and unit labor costs report. Costs are expected up 9.5% with productivity set to fall 4.7%.

After a bit of a mixed start early on, we are seeing stocks look more guarded now with a bit of a drop ahead of the Wall Street open later. S&P 500 futures have slipped to the lows for the day, down 16 points, or 0.4% currently. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures are down 0.6% and Dow futures down 0.2% on the day.

Meme stocks stole the headlines to start the week but perhaps the sense of apprehension ahead of the key risk event tomorrow i.e. US CPI data will be the story for today.

At the lows today, WTI crude was down to $89.05 but was holding around $90.00 before the headlines crossed. It is now trading up to $91.70 as Reuters is reporting that Russia has suspended oil exports via the southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline amid transit payment issues.

It is said that the payment from Russia's pipeline monopoly, Transneft, to Ukraine's pipeline operator, Ukrtransnafta, did not go through. For some context, the flows here i.e. Druzhba pipeline goes towards Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia.

Small business optimism in the US edged up a little in July as fuel prices eased and job openings were marginally easier to fill. That said, inflation worries are continuing to intensify with 37% of business owners reporting that inflation was their most important problem - the highest share since Q4 1979.

Sometimes it is best to be reminded of what goes beyond the headlines and when it comes to inflation numbers, markets may tend to get a bit carried away. So, it is always good to be wary and look in between the lines and not just overreact to what you see on the screens.

German inflation hasn't quite shown signs of peaking just yet with the July numbers coming in higher than estimated. Sure, the headline figure (7.5%) might be off the May high of 7.9% but the EU-harmonised reading (8.5%) was higher than that of June, increasing to just shy of the record high seen in May at 8.7%.

It's hard to read much into the moves we are seeing so far today as there is little for markets to work with, from both a headline and technical perspective. EUR/USD is up 0.3% now to 1.0230 from around 1.0200 earlier, but is still keeping within its recent range between 1.0100 and the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 1.0283 for the most part:

Bitcoin rose 3.5% to $24,100 on Monday and retreated slightly from the highs to 23900 on Tuesday morning. Ethereum is trading near $1780, adding 3.5% in the last 24 hours. Top altcoins have gained between 0.2% (BNB) and 5% (Polkadot).

The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.9% to $1.13 trillion overnight.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The ones for EUR/USD are likely to keep price action more sticky and anchored around current levels, as traders are also seeing little appetite so far today amid the narrow ranges. It's one of those summer lull kind of days in Europe and that should see price action hold near 1.0200 as such.

There's not much in it as European indices give back some of the gains from yesterday at the open. The overall mood this week seems to be more guarded and today is shaping up to be one of those slow summer's day in Europe. All eyes are on the US CPI data tomorrow so you can sort of understand why there is a lack of appetite.

Just some light changes ahead of the cash open with it shaping up to be one of those summer's day in Europe. All eyes are on the US CPI data tomorrow, so market participants are finding little to work with for the time being. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are up by just 6 points, or 0.1%, on the day currently.