This article is also available in English.

NACH FAST 16 Jahren als Deutschlands Kanzlerin wird Angela Merkel nach der Wahl am 26. September zurücktreten. Wer wird die Zügel in Europas größter Wirtschaft übernehmen?

Unser Vorhersagemodell für die Bundestagswahl 2021 kombiniert die neuesten Umfrageergebnisse mit anderen vorausschauenden Indikatoren. Dies erlaubt eine möglichst verlässliche Schätzung, wie viele Stimmen und Sitze die jeweiligen Parteien erlangen werden. Unser Modell misst außerdem die statistische Unsicherheit dieser Ergebnisse.

AMERICAN POLICYMAKERS might be worrying about the pace of consumer-price inflation, but the cost of household goods is not the only expense to have risen faster than usual over the past year. House prices in the country rose by 17% in the year to May, the fastest pace since records began in 1975, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller index.

Dieser Artikel ist auch auf Deutsch verfügbar.

AFTER ALMOST 16 years as Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel will step down after federal elections on September 26th. But who will take the reins of Europe’s biggest economy?

Our forecasting model for the Bundestagswahl 2021 blends the latest polls with other predictive indicators to come up with the most reliable guess at how many votes and seats each party might win—and measures the uncertainty of the contest.

To do so, we start by aggregating the polls over time. Then our model takes into account, from the history of past elections, how those intentions might change between now and election day. We also calculate the polls’ historical accuracy and explore what could happen if they stray from the mark. In taking into account these extra sources of error, our forecasts thus have a wider margin of error than the polls usually report.

This article is also available in English.

NACH FAST 16 Jahren als Deutschlands Kanzlerin wird Angela Merkel nach der Wahl am 26. September zurücktreten. Wer wird die Zügel in Europas größter Wirtschaft übernehmen?

Unser Vorhersagemodell für die Bundestagswahl 2021 kombiniert die neuesten Umfrageergebnisse mit anderen vorausschauenden Indikatoren. Dies erlaubt eine möglichst verlässliche Schätzung, wie viele Stimmen und Sitze die jeweiligen Parteien erlangen werden. Unser Modell misst außerdem die statistische Unsicherheit dieser Ergebnisse.

WHEN JOE BIDEN was a newly elected senator, he asked James Eastland, his fellow in Congress, to tell him the most significant thing that occurred during his long time in the chamber. “Air conditioning,” Mr Eastland replied. Summer in Washington is stifling, so in the past members of Congress departed by June. “Then we put in air conditioning, stayed year round, and ruined America,” he reportedly said, sardonically.

FOOTBALL’S MOST fruitful partnership has ended in tears. On August 8th a weeping Lionel Messi said he was leaving Barcelona, the club he joined when he was just 13. The Argentine forward has scored a record 474 goals in La Liga, Spain’s top league. His teams have won ten La Liga titles and four Europe-wide Champions League trophies.

AMERICAN POLICYMAKERS might be worrying about the pace of consumer-price inflation, but the cost of household goods is not the only expense to have risen faster than usual over the past year. House prices in the country rose by 17% in the year to May, the fastest pace since records began in 1975, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller index.

Dieser Artikel ist auch auf Deutsch verfügbar.

AFTER ALMOST 16 years as Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel will step down after federal elections on September 26th. But who will take the reins of Europe’s biggest economy?

Our forecasting model for the Bundestagswahl 2021 blends the latest polls with other predictive indicators to come up with the most reliable guess at how many votes and seats each party might win—and measures the uncertainty of the contest.

To do so, we start by aggregating the polls over time. Then our model takes into account, from the history of past elections, how those intentions might change between now and election day. We also calculate the polls’ historical accuracy and explore what could happen if they stray from the mark. In taking into account these extra sources of error, our forecasts thus have a wider margin of error than the polls usually report.

WHEN JOE BIDEN was a newly elected senator, he asked James Eastland, his fellow in Congress, to tell him the most significant thing that occurred during his long time in the chamber. “Air conditioning,” Mr Eastland replied. Summer in Washington is stifling, so in the past members of Congress departed by June. “Then we put in air conditioning, stayed year round, and ruined America,” he reportedly said, sardonically.

AMERICAN POLICYMAKERS might be worrying about the pace of consumer-price inflation, but the cost of household goods is not the only expense to have risen faster than usual over the past year. House prices in the country rose by 17% in the year to May, the fastest pace since records began in 1975, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller index.

This article is also available in English.

NACH FAST 16 Jahren als Deutschlands Kanzlerin wird Angela Merkel nach der Wahl am 26. September zurücktreten. Wer wird die Zügel in Europas größter Wirtschaft übernehmen?

Unser Vorhersagemodell für die Bundestagswahl 2021 kombiniert die neuesten Umfrageergebnisse mit anderen vorausschauende Indikatoren. Dies erlaubt eine möglichst verlässliche Schätzung, wie viele Stimmen und Sitze die jeweiligen Parteien erlangen werden. Unser Modell misst außerdem die statistische Unsicherheit dieser Ergebnisse.

Dieser Artikel ist auch auf Deutsch verfügbar.

AFTER ALMOST 16 years as Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel will step down after federal elections on September 26th. But who will take the reins of Europe’s biggest economy?

Our forecasting model for the Bundestagswahl 2021 blends the latest polls with other predictive indicators to come up with the most reliable guess at how many votes and seats each party might win—and measures the uncertainty of the contest.

To do so, we start by aggregating the polls over time. Then our model takes into account, from the history of past elections, how those intentions might change between now and election day. We also calculate the polls’ historical accuracy and explore what could happen if they stray from the mark. In taking into account these extra sources of error, our forecasts thus have a wider margin of error than the polls usually report.

WHEN JOE BIDEN was a newly elected senator, he asked James Eastland, his fellow in Congress, to tell him the most significant thing that occurred during his long time in the chamber. “Air conditioning,” Mr Eastland replied. Summer in Washington is stifling, so in the past members of Congress departed by June. “Then we put in air conditioning, stayed year round, and ruined America,” he reportedly said, sardonically.

One of the most remarkable things about the report is the volume of concrete evidence. When the IPCC compiled its last big report in 2013, it referred to just three studies linking extreme weather events to rising temperatures. For the latest report the experts were able to assess hundreds of such event-attribution studies. The expansion of observational information in the past eight years almost amounts to a new scientific discipline, and allows empirical evidence to be incorporated into research alongside theories and models. This strengthens the understanding of the fundamental processes, and thus should improve predictions made for the years ahead.

WHEN JOE BIDEN was a newly elected senator, he asked James Eastland, his fellow in Congress, to tell him the most significant thing that occurred during his long time in the chamber. “Air conditioning,” Mr Eastland replied. Summer in Washington is stifling, so in the past members of Congress departed by June. “Then we put in air conditioning, stayed year round, and ruined America,” he reportedly said, sardonically.

NEW CLIMATE announcements are coming thick and fast. In recent weeks dozens of countries, including Nigeria and Malaysia, updated the mitigation plans known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) required under the Paris climate agreement of 2015. The deal obliges its signatories to increase the ambition of their NDCs every five years. The original deadline for the first round of updates was COP26, the UN climate summit in Glasgow in 2020. However, because of the covid-19 pandemic, the shindig’s start was delayed until October this year. So far, 58% of the 191 signatories have submitted new NDCs.

One of the most remarkable things about the report is the volume of concrete evidence. When the IPCC compiled its last big report in 2013, it referred to just three studies linking extreme weather events to rising temperatures. For the latest report the experts were able to assess hundreds of such event-attribution studies. The expansion of observational information in the past eight years almost amounts to a new scientific discipline, and allows empirical evidence to be incorporated into research alongside theories and models. This strengthens the understanding of the fundamental processes, and thus should improve predictions made for the years ahead.

One of the most remarkable things about the report is the volume of concrete evidence. When the IPCC compiled its last big report in 2013, it referred to just three studies linking extreme weather events to rising temperatures. For the latest report the experts were able to assess hundreds of such event-attribution studies. The expansion of observational information in the past eight years almost amounts to a new scientific discipline, and allows empirical evidence to be incorporated into research alongside theories and models. This strengthens the understanding of the fundamental processes, and thus should improve predictions made for the years ahead.

NEW CLIMATE announcements are coming thick and fast. In recent weeks dozens of countries, including Nigeria and Malaysia, updated the mitigation plans known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) required under the Paris climate agreement of 2015. The deal obliges its signatories to increase the ambition of their NDCs every five years. The original deadline for the first round of updates was COP26, the UN climate summit in Glasgow in 2020. However, because of the covid-19 pandemic, the shindig’s start was delayed until October this year. So far, 58% of the 191 signatories have submitted new NDCs.

One of the most remarkable things about the report is the volume of concrete evidence. When the IPCC compiled its last big report in 2013, it referred to just three studies linking extreme weather events to rising temperatures. For the latest report the experts were able to assess hundreds of such event-attribution studies. The expansion of observational information in the past eight years almost amounts to a new scientific discipline, and allows empirical evidence to be incorporated into research alongside theories and models. This strengthens the understanding of the fundamental processes, and thus should improve predictions made for the years ahead.

NEW CLIMATE announcements are coming thick and fast. In recent weeks dozens of countries, including Nigeria and Malaysia, updated the mitigation plans known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) required under the Paris climate agreement of 2015. The deal obliges its signatories to increase the ambition of their NDCs every five years. The original deadline for the first round of updates was COP26, the UN climate summit in Glasgow in 2020. However, because of the covid-19 pandemic, the shindig’s start was delayed until October this year. So far, 58% of the 191 signatories have submitted new NDCs.