DO VACCINES CAUSE autism? Are politicians scaremongering about covid-19 to drum up profits for drug firms? Will Bill Gates use injections to implant microchips in your children?

The answer to all three questions is no, though scientists once debated the first. In 1998 the Lancet, a medical journal, published a study showing a link between jabs and developmental disorders. However, it was retracted after an investigation found that Andrew Wakefield, the lead author, had been paid by people suing vaccine producers. The British doctor was struck off, and large trials did not replicate his results.

Nonetheless, Mr Wakefield’s hoax transformed “anti-vaxx” sentiment into a mainstream belief. The Centre for Countering Digital Hate, an NGO, reckons 58m people follow English-language social-media accounts spreading such misinformation—including conspiracy theories about covid-19, big pharma and Mr Gates.

Polls from 2018 by the Wellcome Trust, a charity, show this idea...

DO VACCINES CAUSE autism? Are politicians scaremongering about covid-19 to drum up profits for drug firms? Will Bill Gates use injections to implant microchips in your children?

The answer to all three questions is no, though scientists once debated the first. In 1998 the Lancet, a medical journal, published a study showing a link between jabs and developmental disorders. However, it was retracted after an investigation found that Andrew Wakefield, the lead author, had been paid by people suing vaccine producers. The British doctor was struck off, and large trials did not replicate his results.

Nonetheless, Mr Wakefield’s hoax transformed “anti-vaxx” sentiment into a mainstream belief. The Centre for Countering Digital Hate, an NGO, reckons 58m people follow English-language social-media accounts spreading such misinformation—including conspiracy theories about covid-19, big pharma and Mr Gates.

Polls from 2018 by the Wellcome Trust, a charity, show this idea...

DO VACCINES CAUSE autism? Are politicians scaremongering about covid-19 to drum up profits for drug firms? Will Bill Gates use injections to implant microchips in your children?

The answer to all three questions is no, though scientists once debated the first. In 1998 the Lancet, a medical journal, published a study showing a link between jabs and developmental disorders. However, it was retracted after an investigation found that Andrew Wakefield, the lead author, had been paid by people suing vaccine producers. The British doctor was struck off, and large trials did not replicate his results.

Nonetheless, Mr Wakefield’s hoax transformed “anti-vaxx” sentiment into a mainstream belief. The Centre for Countering Digital Hate, an NGO, reckons 58m people follow English-language social-media accounts spreading such misinformation—including conspiracy theories about covid-19, big pharma and Mr Gates.

Polls from 2018 by the Wellcome Trust, a charity, show this idea...

WITH PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP trailing by about ten points in the polls, he will be hoping that this week’s Republican convention—normally a reliable source of media attention and campaign cash—will provide a much-needed boost to his re-election campaign. He may be disappointed. Although support for the incumbent party’s candidate usually increases after the convention, challengers also get bounces—and neither are as big as they used to be. And this year several factors, not least the covid-19 pandemic, may mean Mr Trump gets an even smaller boost.

To understand the effect of conventions on political fortunes, The Economist has analysed American presidential polls dating back to 1948. We found that between 1948 and 1992, support for the incumbent party’s candidate increased by an average of three percentage points in the two weeks after the convention. In 1980 support for Jimmy Carter surged by 12 percentage points after the Democrats’ gathering in Madison Square Garden in...

WITH PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP trailing by about ten points in the polls, he will be hoping that this week’s Republican convention—normally a reliable source of media attention and campaign cash—will provide a much-needed boost to his re-election campaign. He may be disappointed. Although support for the incumbent party’s candidate usually increases after the convention, challengers also get bounces—and neither are as big as they used to be. And this year several factors, not least the covid-19 pandemic, may mean Mr Trump gets an even smaller boost.

To understand the effect of conventions on political fortunes, The Economist has analysed American presidential polls dating back to 1948. We found that between 1948 and 1992, support for the incumbent party’s candidate increased by an average of three percentage points in the two weeks after the convention. In 1980 support for Jimmy Carter surged by 12 percentage points after the Democrats’ gathering in Madison Square Garden in...

ANNUAL SNOWFALL can no longer replenish the melted ice that flows into the ocean from Greenland’s glaciers. That is the conclusion of a new analysis of almost 40 years’ satellite data by researchers at Ohio State University. The ice loss, they think, is now so great that it has triggered an irreversible feedback loop: the sheet will keep melting, even if all climate-warming emissions are miraculously curtailed. This is bad news for coastal cities, given that Greenland boasts the largest ice sheet on the planet after Antarctica. Since 2000 its melting ice has contributed about a millimetre a year to rising sea levels. The loss of the entire ice sheet would raise them by more than seven metres, enough to reconfigure the majority of the world’s coastlines.

WITH PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP trailing by about ten points in the polls, he will be hoping that this week’s Republican convention—normally a reliable source of media attention and campaign cash—will provide a much-needed boost to his re-election campaign. He may be disappointed. Although support for the incumbent party’s candidate usually increases after the convention, challengers also get bounces—and neither are as big as they used to be. And this year several factors, not least the covid-19 pandemic, may mean Mr Trump gets an even smaller boost.

To understand the effect of conventions on political fortunes, The Economist has analysed American presidential polls dating back to 1948. We found that between 1948 and 1992, support for the incumbent party’s candidate increased by an average of three percentage points in the two weeks after the convention. In 1980 support for Jimmy Carter surged by 12 percentage points after the Democrats’ gathering in Madison Square Garden in...

ANNUAL SNOWFALL can no longer replenish the melted ice that flows into the ocean from Greenland’s glaciers. That is the conclusion of a new analysis of almost 40 years’ satellite data by researchers at Ohio State University. The ice loss, they think, is now so great that it has triggered an irreversible feedback loop: the sheet will keep melting, even if all climate-warming emissions are miraculously curtailed. This is bad news for coastal cities, given that Greenland boasts the largest ice sheet on the planet after Antarctica. Since 2000 its melting ice has contributed about a millimetre a year to rising sea levels. The loss of the entire ice sheet would raise them by more than seven metres, enough to reconfigure the majority of the world’s coastlines.

ANNUAL SNOWFALL can no longer replenish the melted ice that flows into the ocean from Greenland’s glaciers. That is the conclusion of a new analysis of almost 40 years’ satellite data by researchers at Ohio State University. The ice loss, they think, is now so great that it has triggered an irreversible feedback loop: the sheet will keep melting, even if all climate-warming emissions are miraculously curtailed. This is bad news for coastal cities, given that Greenland boasts the largest ice sheet on the planet after Antarctica. Since 2000 its melting ice has contributed about a millimetre a year to rising sea levels. The loss of the entire ice sheet would raise them by more than seven metres, enough to reconfigure the majority of the world’s coastlines.

IS DEMOCRACY ON the rise or in decline? Proponents of either claim could find supporting evidence in this week’s headlines. In Belarus and Thailand protesters are trying to topple draconian regimes. Meanwhile, the leader of the free world wants to restrict postal voting and China is rounding up dissidents in Hong Kong.

Looking across the globe, however, academics generally agree that democracy is in a slump. One much-watched barometer is the World Values Survey (WVS), a poll published twice a decade. We combined its data with those from the European Values Survey to study trends in 98 countries from 1995 to 2020. Our analysis found that support for autocrats has indeed grown in most parts of the world, but this effect is weakest in healthy democracies, despite their recent flirtations with populism.

Since 1995 the WVS has asked people to rate several types of government as good or bad for their country. Among the options are “having a democratic political system”,...

IS DEMOCRACY ON the rise or in decline? Proponents of either claim could find supporting evidence in this week’s headlines. In Belarus and Thailand protesters are trying to topple draconian regimes. Meanwhile, the leader of the free world wants to restrict postal voting and China is rounding up dissidents in Hong Kong.

Looking across the globe, however, academics generally agree that democracy is in a slump. One much-watched barometer is the World Values Survey (WVS), a poll published twice a decade. We combined its data with those from the European Values Survey to study trends in 98 countries from 1995 to 2020. Our analysis found that support for autocrats has indeed grown in most parts of the world, but this effect is weakest in healthy democracies, despite their recent flirtations with populism.

Since 1995 the WVS has asked people to rate several types of government as good or bad for their country. Among the options are “having a democratic political system”,...

IS DEMOCRACY ON the rise or in decline? Proponents of either claim could find supporting evidence in this week’s headlines. In Belarus and Thailand protesters are trying to topple draconian regimes. Meanwhile, the leader of the free world wants to restrict postal voting and China is rounding up dissidents in Hong Kong.

Looking across the globe, however, academics generally agree that democracy is in a slump. One much-watched barometer is the World Values Survey (WVS), a poll published twice a decade. We combined its data with those from the European Values Survey to study trends in 98 countries from 1995 to 2020. Our analysis found that support for autocrats has indeed grown in most parts of the world, but this effect is weakest in healthy democracies, despite their recent flirtations with populism.

Since 1995 the WVS has asked people to rate several types of government as good or bad for their country. Among the options are “having a democratic political system”,...

IS DEMOCRACY ON the rise or in decline? Proponents of either claim could find supporting evidence in this week’s headlines. In Belarus and Thailand protesters are trying to topple draconian regimes. Meanwhile, the leader of the free world wants to restrict postal voting and China is rounding up dissidents in Hong Kong.

Looking across the globe, however, academics generally agree that democracy is in a slump. One much-watched barometer is the World Values Survey (WVS), a poll published twice a decade. We combined its data with those from the European Values Survey to study trends in 98 countries from 1995 to 2020. Our analysis found that support for autocrats has indeed grown in most parts of the world, but this effect is weakest in healthy democracies, despite their recent flirtations with populism.

Since 1995 the WVS has asked people to rate several types of government as good or bad for their country. Among the options are “having a democratic political system”,...

IS DEMOCRACY ON the rise or in decline? Proponents of either claim could find supporting evidence in this week’s headlines. In Belarus and Thailand protesters are trying to topple draconian regimes. Meanwhile, the leader of the free world wants to restrict postal voting and China is rounding up dissidents in Hong Kong.

Looking across the globe, however, academics generally agree that democracy is in a slump. One much-watched barometer is the World Values Survey (WVS), a poll published twice a decade. We combined its data with those from the European Values Survey to study trends in 98 countries from 1995 to 2020. Our analysis found that support for autocrats has indeed grown in most parts of the world, but this effect is weakest in healthy democracies, despite their recent flirtations with populism.

Since 1995 the WVS has asked people to rate several types of government as good or bad for their country. Among the options are “having a democratic political system”,...

NEARLY 60M children in America are supposed to return to school in the coming weeks. Nobody knows how many will. President Donald Trump, whose poll numbers are flagging as coronavirus cases surge, has insisted that schools reopen. He has even threatened to withhold funding from those that do not. Many teachers and school administrators, meanwhile, worry that the coronavirus is not yet under control, and that schools lack the resources needed to reopen safely, such as masks, extra classroom space and access to frequent testing. On July 28th the American Federation of Teachers, the country’s second-biggest teachers’ union, authorised its members to strike if their safety demands were not met.

For now, at least, most Americans are uneasy. According to a new poll for The Economist by YouGov, a pollster, just a third of parents with school-age children say they want their children to go back to their classrooms in the autumn. Nearly half want them to stay at home. A sixth are...

Sources: US Census Bureau; MIT Election and Data Science Lab; 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; American National Election Studies; 270towin.com; Gallup; FiveThirtyEight; YouGov

Forecast by The Economist with Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns, Columbia University

Editor’s note: Some of our covid-19 coverage is free for readers of The Economist Today, our daily newsletter. For more stories and our pandemic tracker, see our hub

COVID-19 HAS altered life as we know it. When governments imposed lockdowns in March, people transformed their homes into makeshift offices, gyms and pubs. For many, crammed commutes and bustling nightlife became a distant memory. Now that countries have eased restrictions, residents are venturing outside again—but not as much as before. Globally, they made perhaps 25% fewer trips per day in July than they did in early March, according to The Economist’s analysis of Google’s phone-tracking data.

Consumer caution has hit some industries harder than others. By training a statistical model on Google’s global search data since 2016, we find that traffic for “restaurant” (or similar words in other languages) is currently 17% lower than we would usually expect for this time of year. Booze stores may be doing...

AT THE beginning of spring much of Europe shut down to slow the spread of covid-19, which has infected nearly 3m people and taken the lives of about 200,000 in the continent’s 54 countries and territories, from the Atlantic to the Urals. The first wave of infections appears largely to have abated. Countries are returning to some semblance of normality—albeit with social-distancing measures in place. Now that governments are loosening restrictions on their citizens, the fear is that the virus could return.

Editor’s note: Some of our covid-19 coverage is free for readers of The Economist Today, our daily newsletter. For more stories and our pandemic tracker, see our hub

COVID-19 HAS altered life as we know it. When governments imposed lockdowns in March, people transformed their homes into makeshift offices, gyms and pubs. For many, crammed commutes and bustling nightlife became a distant memory. Now that countries have eased restrictions, residents are venturing outside again—but not as much as before. Globally, they made perhaps 25% fewer trips per day in July than they did in early March, according to The Economist’s analysis of Google’s phone-tracking data.

Consumer caution has hit some industries harder than others. By training a statistical model on Google’s global search data since 2016, we find that traffic for “restaurant” (or similar words in other languages) is currently 17% lower than we would usually expect for this time of year. Booze stores may be doing...

Editor’s note: Some of our covid-19 coverage is free for readers of The Economist Today, our daily newsletter. For more stories and our pandemic tracker, see our hub

COVID-19 HAS altered life as we know it. When governments imposed lockdowns in March, people transformed their homes into makeshift offices, gyms and pubs. For many, crammed commutes and bustling nightlife became a distant memory. Now that countries have eased restrictions, residents are venturing outside again—but not as much as before. Globally, they made perhaps 25% fewer trips per day in July than they did in early March, according to The Economist’s analysis of Google’s phone-tracking data.

Consumer caution has hit some industries harder than others. By training a statistical model on Google’s global search data since 2016, we find that traffic for “restaurant” (or similar words in other languages) is currently 17% lower than we would usually expect for this time of year. Booze stores may be doing...

THE BLAST that flattened Beirut’s port on Tuesday has killed more than 135 people and injured thousands more (the number of confirmed fatalities is expected to rise). Lebanon’s Higher Defence Council, chaired by the president and prime minister, has declared the city a “disaster zone”. The country, which was already facing a financial crisis, is now confronted by a humanitarian one. What sparked the explosion is not yet clear, but its potency seemingly came from more than 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate that authorities were storing in a warehouse. History shows that disasters involving the chemical are tragically common, and should be preventable.

Ammonium nitrate has been used widely in crop fertilisers since the 1940s. It usually comes in pellets, which are cheap to make and stable under normal conditions. But at high enough temperatures the chemical can detonate. This makes it useful as part of industrial explosives in mining, and as a popular bomb-making material...

THE BLAST that flattened Beirut’s port on Tuesday has killed more than 135 people and injured thousands more. Lebanon’s Higher Defence Council, chaired by the president and prime minister, has declared the city a “disaster zone”. The country, which was already facing a financial crisis, is now confronted by a humanitarian one. What sparked the explosion is not yet clear, but its potency seemingly came from more than 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate that authorities were storing in a warehouse. History shows that disasters involving the chemical are tragically common, and should be preventable.

Ammonium nitrate has been used widely in crop fertilisers since the 1940s. It usually comes in pellets, which are cheap to make and stable under normal conditions. But at high enough temperatures the chemical can detonate. This makes it useful as part of industrial explosives in mining, and as a popular bomb-making material for terrorists.

THE BLAST that flattened Beirut’s port on Tuesday has killed more than 135 people and injured thousands more. Lebanon’s Higher Defence Council, chaired by the president and prime minister, has declared the city a “disaster zone”. The country, which was already facing a financial crisis, is now confronted by a humanitarian one. What sparked the explosion is not yet clear, but its potency seemingly came from more than 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate that authorities were storing in a warehouse. History shows that disasters involving the chemical are tragically common, and should be preventable.

Ammonium nitrate has been used widely in crop fertilisers since the 1940s. It usually comes in pellets, which are cheap to make and stable under normal conditions. But at high enough temperatures the chemical can detonate. This makes it useful as part of industrial explosives in mining, and as a popular bomb-making material for terrorists.