By Serdar Birinci, Economist; and Aaron Amburgey, Research Associate

The unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and initial unemployment claims are all commonly cited indicators that economists use to diagnose labor market conditions. These indicators become especially useful during and after economic downturns, when we want to know how workers have been affected.

However, there are other important labor market indicators that are often overlooked. One such indicator is the job switching rate, or the rate at which employed workers change jobs. The job switching rate can be thought of as a measure of job mobility—high job switching rates indicate high levels of job mobility.

While job mobility may perhaps be considered less critical than something like the unemployment rate, there is a significant connection between job switching rates and wage growth. Specifically, a high job switching rate is associated with high levels of future wage growth....

The FRED Blog has previously looked at the negative impact of social distancing on employment levels in the leisure and hospitality industry. Today, one year later, we take a look at how the overall economic recovery is reflected in this industry.

The GeoFRED map above shows the percent change between May 2020 and May 2021 of employment levels in the leisure and hospitality industry for each state. The data are seasonally adjusted, meaning they correct for the recurring ups and downs in activity during any given year. For example, winter ice fishing in North Dakota or summer vacationing in Florida.

Overall, the number of employees in the leisure and hospitality industry increased from May 2020 to May 2021 by a stunning average of 42%. The smallest increase was 20% in Oklahoma, and the largest increase was 73% in Delaware.

The high-growth states, with increases in employment of over 60%, are in dark green. Eight of these ten states are concentrated in the...

How did the other states fare? The second GeoFRED map shows Nevadans were not far behind Hawaii residents, as productivity in the Silver State grew 8%. But the blue coloring in the map shows states where productivity growth was negative during 2020. In descending order, an hour of work yielded fewer goods and services than during the previous year for Montanans, Oklahomans, Tennesseans, South Dakotans, and Idahoans.

The regional differences in labor productivity growth likely reflect idiosyncratic state economies. For example, goods manufacturing plays a much larger role in Oklahoma than in Hawaii. In that light, the uneven impact of the COVID-19-induced recession on the nationwide consumption and production of goods and services would have different impacts on state-level output, hours worked, and—ultimately—labor productivity.

How these maps were created: From GeoFRED, click on “Build new map” (green button, northeast corner of the screen) and then click on...

By Lowell R. Ricketts, Data Scientist, Institute for Economic Equity

The Great Recession, which occurred from December 2007 to June 2009, was marked by widespread wealth destruction, especially corporate equities and home equity—the latter marked by pronounced inequities by race and ethnicity. In stark contrast, average wealth outcomes among white, Black and Hispanic households hit record highs during the recovery from the COVID-19 recession, which occurred from February to April 2020. It is important to note that these averages are more responsive to the high wealth holdings of the very rich, so these results may not characterize the typical household’s experience. Indeed, given that Black and Hispanic families have borne the brunt of pandemic hardship in many ways, these average outcomes may obscure declining wealth for a relatively large share of families. While average wealth grew across these racial and ethnic groups, the source and magnitude of that growth...

By Serdar Birinci, Economist; and Aaron Amburgey, Research Associate

The unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and initial unemployment claims are all commonly cited indicators that economists use to diagnose labor market conditions. These indicators become especially useful during and after economic downturns, when we want to know how workers have been affected.

However, there are other important labor market indicators that are often overlooked. One such indicator is the job switching rate, or the rate at which employed workers change jobs. The job switching rate can be thought of as a measure of job mobility—high job switching rates indicate high levels of job mobility.

While job mobility may perhaps be considered less critical than something like the unemployment rate, there is a significant connection between job switching rates and wage growth. Specifically, a high job switching rate is associated with high levels of future wage growth....

How did the other states fare? The second GeoFRED map shows Nevadans were not far behind Hawaii residents, as productivity in the Silver State grew 8%. But the blue coloring in the map shows states where productivity growth was negative during 2020. In descending order, an hour of work yielded fewer goods and services than during the previous year for Montanans, Oklahomans, Tennesseans, South Dakotans, and Idahoans.

The regional differences in labor productivity growth likely reflect idiosyncratic state economies. For example, goods manufacturing plays a much larger role in Oklahoma than in Hawaii. In that light, the uneven impact of the COVID-19-induced recession on the nationwide consumption and production of goods and services would have different impacts on state-level output, hours worked, and—ultimately—labor productivity.

How these maps were created: From GeoFRED, click on “Build new map” (green button, northeast corner of the screen) and then click on...

By Serdar Birinci, Economist; and Aaron Amburgey, Research Associate

The unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and initial unemployment claims are all commonly cited indicators that economists use to diagnose labor market conditions. These indicators become especially useful during and after economic downturns, when we want to know how workers have been affected.

However, there are other important labor market indicators that are often overlooked. One such indicator is the job switching rate, or the rate at which employed workers change jobs. The job switching rate can be thought of as a measure of job mobility—high job switching rates indicate high levels of job mobility.

While job mobility may perhaps be considered less critical than something like the unemployment rate, there is a significant connection between job switching rates and wage growth. Specifically, a high job switching rate is associated with high levels of future wage growth....

“Economics, certainly, is about the data and the numbers side of things. But it’s also about the stories and the people that are behind those numbers and how we tell those stories,” says Julie Bennett, research associate at the St. Louis Fed. She joins fellow research associates Praew Grittayaphong and Maggie Isaacson, as they discuss research and working in economics with Maria Hasenstab, media relations coordinator at the St. Louis Fed.

How did the other states fare? The second GeoFRED map shows Nevadans were not far behind Hawaii residents, as productivity in the Silver State grew 8%. But the blue coloring in the map shows states where productivity growth was negative during 2020. In descending order, an hour of work yielded fewer goods and services than during the previous year for Montanans, Oklahomans, Tennesseans, South Dakotans, and Idahoans.

The regional differences in labor productivity growth likely reflect idiosyncratic state economies. For example, goods manufacturing plays a much larger role in Oklahoma than in Hawaii. In that light, the uneven impact of the COVID-19-induced recession on the nationwide consumption and production of goods and services would have different impacts on state-level output, hours worked, and—ultimately—labor productivity.

How these maps were created: From GeoFRED, click on “Build new map” (green button, northeast corner of the screen) and then click on...

By Serdar Birinci, Economist; and Aaron Amburgey, Research Associate

The unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and initial unemployment claims are all commonly cited indicators that economists use to diagnose labor market conditions. These indicators become especially useful during and after economic downturns, when we want to know how workers have been affected.

However, there are other important labor market indicators that are often overlooked. One such indicator is the job switching rate, or the rate at which employed workers change jobs. The job switching rate can be thought of as a measure of job mobility—high job switching rates indicate high levels of job mobility.

While job mobility may perhaps be considered less critical than something like the unemployment rate, there is a significant connection between job switching rates and wage growth. Specifically, a high job switching rate is associated with high levels of future wage growth....

August 18, 2021

Listen to the interview »

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard shared his outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation during a MarketWatch interview and Barron’s Live event. He also discussed monetary policy, including his view that the Federal Open Market Committee should get going on tapering the Fed’s asset purchases.

Bullard noted that the U.S. economy is very strong. He said that he expects real GDP growth to be between 6% and 7% for 2021 and to be 4% for 2022.

Regarding inflation, he noted that core PCE inflation is 3.5% (measured from a year ago), and he expects it to remain above 2.5% in 2022. “So, you’ve got an inflationary shock here that is large, and that the committee has to take into account when trying to calibrate policy in 2022,” he said.

The risk is having even higher inflation than expected in 2022, Bullard noted. “I think it behooves us as policymakers, and also markets, that we get the taper...

By Lindsay Jones, Economic Editor

When you see the name ALFRED, does the butler in “Batman” immediately spring to mind? Like the fictional character in the storied superhero franchise, the Federal Reserve’s ALFRED provides a service. But unlike Bruce Wayne’s longtime friend and mentor, this ALFRED is a database containing more than 815,000 data series.

ALFRED (for ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Data) launched in 2006 as a companion to its older sibling, FRED, the St. Louis Fed’s signature economic database, according to an April 2021 FRED Blog post. While 30-year-old FRED aggregates the latest data releases from sources such as the U.S. bureaus of Labor Statistics, Economic Analysis and Census, 15-year-old ALFRED captures vintage versions of these data as FRED replaces them with the latest numbers. Research Division analysts keep track of scheduled and unscheduled data releases, and ALFRED is typically updated within one business day, according to the...

By Lowell R. Ricketts, Data Scientist, Institute for Economic Equity

The Great Recession, which occurred from December 2007 to June 2009, was marked by widespread wealth destruction, especially corporate equities and home equity—the latter marked by pronounced inequities by race and ethnicity. In stark contrast, average wealth outcomes among white, Black and Hispanic households hit record highs during the recovery from the COVID-19 recession, which occurred from February to April 2020. It is important to note that these averages are more responsive to the high wealth holdings of the very rich, so these results may not characterize the typical household’s experience. Indeed, given that Black and Hispanic families have borne the brunt of pandemic hardship in many ways, these average outcomes may obscure declining wealth for a relatively large share of families. While average wealth grew across these racial and ethnic groups, the source and magnitude of that growth...