• The FRED Blog examines possible economic motivations for the rise in undocumented immigrants from Central America’s Northern Triangle to the U.S. Link https://t.co/n0ChXHn9z6
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 21:01

    In the past two years, the surge in undocumented immigrants from Central America’s Northern Triangle has been covered extensively by most news outlets. The stories of these migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras involve compelling and often perilous human experiences and intense reactions to the issues involved.

    Apart from the political and social views about immigration, there are fundamental questions to ask that may have some economic answers: What is the main motivation for these migrations? And why are people willing to put themselves and their families at great risk to migrate to the U.S.?*

    The graph above shows the ratio of per capita income in the U.S., the intended destination for many of these migrants, to per capita income in the three Northern Triangle countries: El Salvador (in blue), Guatemala (in red), and Honduras (in green). The gaps are huge, as expected, but also quite varied, with clear movements over time.

    Some...

  • The Affordable Rental Program is @thetab314’s first #CRA eligible project. Here is one CDC’s story of progress and possibility: Link #StlFedCD #CommunityDevelopment https://t.co/XNc3MPiMnd
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 18:31

    By Nya Watson, Community Reinvestment Initiatives Analyst

    For Andre Alexander, restoring old properties in St. Louis City’s North corridor is about more than real estate.

    It’s about restoring hope to those who live there.

    “When residents see that other people care to invest in the neighborhood and preserve the history, then people gain hope,” he says.

  • Higher tariffs and fewer U.S. exports could cause a chain reaction—with U.S. manufacturing output and employment slowing: Link #trade https://t.co/BhNlC0B85g
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 17:36

    The U.S. economy has recently been exposed to shocks that could reduce economic activity. First, the ongoing slowdown of economic activity in the world economy may reduce foreign demand for goods produced in the United States. Second, increased uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and its potential impact on foreign trade policy may reduce investment and economic activity in sectors with business models that depend on international trade. Indeed, these two considerations have recently motivated the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee to ease monetary policy.1

    In this essay, we investigate the extent to which international trade considerations might impact the manufacturing sector. We first examine an index that tracks the evolution of new export orders of manufactures over recent months. We then investigate the extent to which fluctuations of this index are likely to be associated with fluctuations of U.S. manufacturing output and employment. 

    ...
  • The share of renters in the U.S. was more than 36% in 2016, a number not seen since the 1980s. Does the American dream still include owning a home? Link
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 15:41

    The post-Great Recession homeownership rate shows signs of stabilizing, according to the St. Louis Fed’s Center for Household Financial Stability.

    But I wanted to find out, why are so many people still renting so long after the Great Recession?

    In a recent essay, Policy Analyst Ana Hernández Kent and her co-author noted a Pew Research Center study showing that the share of renters in the U.S. has increased in recent years, from 31.2% in 2006 to 36.6% in 2016.

    That's nearly 2 in 5 households, a level of renting last seen in the late 1980s.

    I recently sat down with several members of the Center team: Kent, along with Lead Economist Bill Emmons and Lead Analyst Lowell Ricketts. When we opened up the discussion, I wanted to hear about the housing market in general, looking at both buying and renting.

  • Fed policies impact the federal government’s deficit and debt. These effects are potentially large and, in turn, affect the future conduct of fiscal policy Link https://t.co/UJqJ90xH1X
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 13:30

    By Fernando Martin, Research Officer and Economist

    Over the next decade, the federal government is expected to continue running substantial deficits, resulting in further debt accumulation. According to the latest projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the primary deficit will average 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2020 to 2029.

    Though this figure is lower than the average primary deficit sustained since the financial crisis (2008-2019)—about 3.7% of GDP—it is still much higher than in the preceding postwar period (1955-2007), when the average primary deficit was roughly zero.

    The natural consequence of these mounting deficits is a substantial accumulation of government liabilities. Debt held by the public was 35% of GDP in 2007, climbed to 79% of GDP by 2019 and is projected to reach 95% of GDP by 2029.

  • Agencies seek comments on collecting small-business and small-farm lending data #bankingregulation Link
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 12:05
  • Agencies propose policy on credit losses #bankingregulation Link
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 11:05
  • Commercial paper outstanding rises by $11.1 billion to a three-month high of $1.131 trillion Link https://t.co/Hr44MOOTWJ
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 05:50
  • Freight transportation services index from @TransportStats fell to 136.6 in September, 2.5% below August’s all-time high (2000=100) Link https://t.co/ShxP9ra5xZ
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 04:40
  • Average interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages edge slightly higher in the latest week: 30-year ticks up to 3.75% and 15-year to 3.20% Link https://t.co/CYhFm3JIjU
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 03:30
  • Initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked up by 14,000 to 225,000 in the week ending Nov. 9. Four-week moving average also edged higher, by 1,750 to 217,000 Link https://t.co/n80CZKDjb3
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 02:10
  • Adjusted monetary base rises by $43.3 billion over two weeks to $3.295 trillion Link https://t.co/B1GOwir06Q
    St. Louis Fed Fri 15 Nov 2019 00:50
  • After edging lower for four consecutive weeks, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index ticks higher in the latest reading—up to -1.301 (normal stress=0) Link https://t.co/VLvLu7H8x8
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 23:35
  • Producer price index for final demand rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October after declining 0.3% the prior month. Increase from a year earlier was 1.0%, down from 1.4% in September Link https://t.co/CtxW3diK67
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 22:25
  • The decline in homeownership rates among black households between the housing-boom period and the post-crash period was greater than it was for white households Link https://t.co/eV2EhbDxaN
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 21:05

    The post-Great Recession homeownership rate shows signs of stabilizing, according to the St. Louis Fed’s Center for Household Financial Stability.

    But I wanted to find out, why are so many people still renting so long after the Great Recession?

    In a recent essay, Policy Analyst Ana Hernández Kent and her co-author noted a Pew Research Center study showing that the share of renters in the U.S. has increased in recent years, from 31.2% in 2006 to 36.6% in 2016.

    That's nearly 2 in 5 households, a level of renting last seen in the late 1980s.

    I recently sat down with several members of the Center team: Kent, along with Lead Economist Bill Emmons and Lead Analyst Lowell Ricketts. When we opened up the discussion, I wanted to hear about the housing market in general, looking at both buying and renting.

  • Staff pick: Your parents’ education may play a role in your own income and wealth Link https://t.co/2Dk0L3wad9
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 18:40

    By Ana Kent, Policy Analyst, Center for Household Financial Stability

    The On the Economy blog will periodically rerun blog posts that were of particular interest. The following is a post from February on college persistence among black and Hispanic families.

    Educational attainment tells us quite a bit about the types of financial outcomes we should expect a family to have. So does the education of the family’s parents. Unsurprisingly, most people tend to achieve the same level of education as their parents, with college “persisters” (college graduates for whom at least one parent was also a college grad) having the best financial outcomes.

    The good news is that over half of family heads get a college degree if a parent did. The bad news is that only a quarter of family heads do so if neither parent achieved a four-year degree. Racial differences in intergenerational educational persistence are even more pronounced. Exploring these differences is...

  • The FOMC has taken actions that have changed the outlook for shorter-term U.S. interest rates considerably over the last 12 months, ultimately providing more accommodation to the economy, Bullard says Link https://t.co/GhjD4jUYUv
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 17:50

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The FOMC’s Substantial Turn during 2019” at the Rotary Club of Louisville on Thursday.

    Bullard noted that the U.S. economy has been slowing down in 2019 after relatively rapid growth during 2017 and 2018. The economy faces downside risk that may cause a sharper-than-expected slowdown, which “may make it more difficult for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to achieve its 2% inflation target,” he said.

    He pointed out that the FOMC has tried to help insure against this downside risk by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019.

    Bullard also noted, “Key measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have now returned to a more normal, positive slope, possibly a bullish factor for 2020.”

  • Bullard notes that key measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have now returned to a more normal, positive slope, possibly a bullish factor for 2020 Link https://t.co/0zB4R9aoZp
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 17:45

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The FOMC’s Substantial Turn during 2019” at the Rotary Club of Louisville on Thursday.

    Bullard noted that the U.S. economy has been slowing down in 2019 after relatively rapid growth during 2017 and 2018. The economy faces downside risk that may cause a sharper-than-expected slowdown, which “may make it more difficult for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to achieve its 2% inflation target,” he said.

    He pointed out that the FOMC has tried to help insure against this downside risk by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019.

    Bullard also noted, “Key measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have now returned to a more normal, positive slope, possibly a bullish factor for 2020.”

  • The FOMC has tried to help insure against the downside risk to the U.S. economy by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019, Bullard says Link https://t.co/5bNGYK2PiK
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 17:40

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The FOMC’s Substantial Turn during 2019” at the Rotary Club of Louisville on Thursday.

    Bullard noted that the U.S. economy has been slowing down in 2019 after relatively rapid growth during 2017 and 2018. The economy faces downside risk that may cause a sharper-than-expected slowdown, which “may make it more difficult for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to achieve its 2% inflation target,” he said.

    He pointed out that the FOMC has tried to help insure against this downside risk by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019.

    Bullard also noted, “Key measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have now returned to a more normal, positive slope, possibly a bullish factor for 2020.”

  • Bullard points out that FOMC’s adjustment toward lower rates in the face of trade policy uncertainty may help facilitate somewhat faster growth in 2020 than what might otherwise occur Link https://t.co/PrRW2iLozI
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 17:35

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The FOMC’s Substantial Turn during 2019” at the Rotary Club of Louisville on Thursday.

    Bullard noted that the U.S. economy has been slowing down in 2019 after relatively rapid growth during 2017 and 2018. The economy faces downside risk that may cause a sharper-than-expected slowdown, which “may make it more difficult for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to achieve its 2% inflation target,” he said.

    He pointed out that the FOMC has tried to help insure against this downside risk by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019.

    Bullard also noted, “Key measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have now returned to a more normal, positive slope, possibly a bullish factor for 2020.”

  • Bullard discusses downside risks to U.S. economic growth, including the effects of magnified global trade policy uncertainty Link https://t.co/LB9Nn2tc8L
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 17:35

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The FOMC’s Substantial Turn during 2019” at the Rotary Club of Louisville on Thursday.

    Bullard noted that the U.S. economy has been slowing down in 2019 after relatively rapid growth during 2017 and 2018. The economy faces downside risk that may cause a sharper-than-expected slowdown, which “may make it more difficult for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to achieve its 2% inflation target,” he said.

    He pointed out that the FOMC has tried to help insure against this downside risk by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019.

    Bullard also noted, “Key measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have now returned to a more normal, positive slope, possibly a bullish factor for 2020.”

  • The U.S. economy has been slowing down in 2019 after relatively rapid growth during 2017 and 2018, Bullard says Link https://t.co/nyTEYV9XSX
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 17:30

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The FOMC’s Substantial Turn during 2019” at the Rotary Club of Louisville on Thursday.

    Bullard noted that the U.S. economy has been slowing down in 2019 after relatively rapid growth during 2017 and 2018. The economy faces downside risk that may cause a sharper-than-expected slowdown, which “may make it more difficult for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to achieve its 2% inflation target,” he said.

    He pointed out that the FOMC has tried to help insure against this downside risk by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019.

    Bullard also noted, “Key measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have now returned to a more normal, positive slope, possibly a bullish factor for 2020.”

  • St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard presents “The FOMC’s Substantial Turn during 2019” in Louisville, Ky. Link https://t.co/IzcAk4lFKS
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 17:25

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The FOMC’s Substantial Turn during 2019” at the Rotary Club of Louisville on Thursday.

    Bullard noted that the U.S. economy has been slowing down in 2019 after relatively rapid growth during 2017 and 2018. The economy faces downside risk that may cause a sharper-than-expected slowdown, which “may make it more difficult for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to achieve its 2% inflation target,” he said.

    He pointed out that the FOMC has tried to help insure against this downside risk by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019.

    Bullard also noted, “Key measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have now returned to a more normal, positive slope, possibly a bullish factor for 2020.”

  • Community Development Corporation Summit attendees share insights at a panel highlighting the Investment Connection program. Discover this #communityreinvestment initiative: Link #STLFedCD https://t.co/gjq2d59yL6
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 15:40

    Banks, foundations, government entities and others throughout the Eighth District with the capacity to invest, lend or provide services in support of CRA activities can find funding opportunities by participating in live events in their communities.

  • Chances are you’ve come across money that’s been torn or defaced—or maybe you know someone who saw bills damaged by a flood. Learn what to do with unfit, mutilated or contaminated currency: Link
    St. Louis Fed Thu 14 Nov 2019 13:39

    Cash. Moolah. Dough. Currency. Money.

    These terms probably elicit images of crisp paper bills or stacks of brand-new bank notes, right?

    But what happens to old or worn out money? The bills that are torn, covered in graffiti or at the end of their life cycle — what happens to those?

    Generally speaking, U.S. paper currency that’s no longer fit for circulation is removed from circulation by the Federal Reserve System. However, different fates can befall a bill, and there are different processes for handling money depending on what happened to it.

    If you’re questioning whether there’s any bang left in your buck, it’s important to know what kind of damage you’re dealing with.

    Read on for definitions and what to do with old money.

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