- Fed's Daly and Kashkari suggested it is too soon to declare victory on inflation
Newsquawk Thu 11 Aug 2022 05:21- - DXY has clawed back some of its post-CPI losses, EUR/USD is back on a 1.02 handle, JPY lags G10 FX Newsquawk Thu 11 Aug 2022 05:21
- - European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% yesterday Newsquawk Thu 11 Aug 2022 05:21
- Morning all! - APAC stocks took impetus from their global counterparts after softer-than-expected US CPI propelled stocks on Wall St (S&P 500 +2.1%) Newsquawk Thu 11 Aug 2022 05:21
- Asia-Pac stocks trade higher after softer the expected US CPI unwound some of the hawkish Fed market pricing... https://t.co/NBLQ2Rf0Y8 Newsquawk Thu 11 Aug 2022 02:36
- Asia-Pac stocks begin higher as the region takes impetus from global peers in the aftermath of the softer-than-expected US CPI data and easing of the hawkish market pricing for the Fed; ASX 200 (+0.6%), KOSPI (+1.1%), Nikkei 225 (Closed) Newsquawk Thu 11 Aug 2022 00:10
- RT @mukks: @Newsquawk The FED in Far Far Away: https://t.co/mE0tNHQFWD Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 18:23
- Kashkari says Fed is "far far far away" from declaring victory on inflation https://t.co/AfM19D8fXJ Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 18:23
- Worth remembering that Evans is a non-voting, regional Fed president who retires at the end of the year - comments mean nothing Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 15:47
- RT @Newsquawk: "**Newsquawk self-promotion warning** We squawked to our clients that Microsoft guides FY23 revenue double digits sales gro… Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 15:02
- $WYNN -2%: Shallower loss per shr than exp. but rev miss as results in Macau continue to be pressured by COVID-related shutdowns $HRB +4%: EPS & rev beat; Raised FY view & Q dividend by 7% to $0.29/shr; New $1.25bln share buyback prog. Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 13:32
- $TTD +23%: Rev beat & Q3 rev view topped; said performance gives it confidence it can gain market share in any economic environment $AKAM +1%: EPS & rev beat; Q3 EPS & rev view light $RBLX -6%: Deeper loss per shr than exp. & missed on rev; Bookings fell short & declined Y/Y Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 13:32
- US pre-markets: $TSLA +5%: Musk sold $6.9bln worth of TSLA shares citing chance of forced TWTR deal $COIN +2.5%: Deeper loss per shr than exp. & missed on rev; FY22 rev guidance light; Note, initially down after earnings but BTC saw upside in wake of CPI report & lifted COIN Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 13:32
- Remember: - August CPI due on Sept 13th - FOMC announcement Sept 21st https://t.co/WaedgbCD3X Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 12:46
- The in #gasoline prices is gaining momentum, with the national average posting its biggest weekly drop in almost 14 years. Pump prices ~17 cents for the week ended Sunday, which also included a one-day drop of 3.1 cents (the largest daily since Dec. 2008) - Bloomberg
- Headline figures: MM 0.0% (exp. 0.2%; prev. 1.3%) YY +8.5% (exp. 8.7%; prev. 9.1%) Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 12:36
- US Core CPI YY +5.9% (exp. 6.1%; prev. 5.9%) US Core CPI MM +0.3% (exp. 0.5%; prev. 0.7%) https://t.co/MaoW7i4Cma Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 12:31
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- RT @PriapusIQ: ? As @Adamlinton1 notes on the @Newsquawk mic, the resumption of oil flows is weighing on Crude prices, with Brent and WTI t… Newsquawk Wed 10 Aug 2022 10:41
Analysis details (10:11)
Equities in Europe have trimmed the modest broad-based downside seen at the cash open in the run-up to the US CPI metric and Fed speak. The post-CPI pricing of another 75bp move by the FOMC in September will likely drive the stock market, whilst Fed commentary will also be eyed to see how high the Fed is willing to go, and for how long - full Newsquawk preview available here. US equity futures have been gaining since the European cash open, in summer conditions, and with no major headlines this morning to drive the price action. Back in Europe, it is worth being mindful of the low water levels in Germany’s Rhine River from a trade flow perspective. Reports suggested that the Rhine River will be effectively impassable at a key point on August 12th – which will likely hinder large flows of diesel and coal at a time Russian gas flows are uncertain, and after flows via the southern arm of the Druzhba pipeline were halted. In terms of the...
DXY
The index is flat in early trade having notched a narrow APAC range. Fresh session lows were printed heading into the European cash open but DXY now stays within a tight 106.23-40 parameter ahead of the US CPI print – Full Newsquawk preview available here. Fed speak is also set to pick up after the CPI report, Fed's Evans and Kashkari are due on Wednesday after the CPI report while Daly is to speak on Thursday, whilst unscheduled speakers are likely to conduct impromptu interviews on business TV and wires. Participants are on the lookout for clues in their remarks to gauge their appetite for another 75bp move in September and to see how high the Fed is willing to go, and for how long, with some desks flagging the potential for a 100bps increase, should the CPI report come in notably hotter than expected. SGH’s Chief US Economist Tim Duy wrote this morning - “we need a substantial downside miss on July core inflation to keep the 50bp option open. A consensus or...
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