The apparel sector has been deeply affected by COVID-19. As we publish on the European apparel retailers we leverage 11 UBS Evidence Lab datasets and our own detailed modelling to explore broader post-pandemic sector debates and quantify the scale of changes ahead.
Our base case assumes total Western Europe apparel and footwear spend takes 3 years to recover to 2019 levels. Our estimates are 9% below 2019 levels in 2021 and 2% below in 2022. Given the level of uncertainty still, we model different scenarios: the upside case is a full recovery by 2022; he downside case assumes no full recovery even by 2025.
Our forecasts reflect our analysis of cyclical factors (LT relationship of market growth to GDP), structural factors (impact of store closures and changes in event related apparel spend like holidays), pricing (the sector is deflationary on value and fast fashion) and supply (permanent store closures as some retailers exit the market / downsize). This leads...
S&P500 | |||
---|---|---|---|
VIX | |||
Eurostoxx50 | |||
FTSE100 | |||
Nikkei 225 | |||
TNX (UST10y) | |||
EURUSD | |||
GBPUSD | |||
USDJPY | |||
BTCUSD | |||
Gold spot | |||
Brent | |||
Copper |
- Top 50 publishers (last 24 hours)