• NYTimes:Where Jobless Benefits Were Cut, Jobs Still Hard to Fill. Link WSJ: Americans Are Leaving Unemployment Rolls More Quickly in States Cutting Off Benefits. Link
    David Wessel Sun 27 Jun 2021 23:33

    MARYLAND HEIGHTS, Mo. — By lunchtime, the representatives from the recruiting agency Express Employment Professionals decided to pack up and leave the job fair in the St. Louis suburb of Maryland Heights. Hardly anyone had shown up.

    “We were hoping we would see prepandemic levels,” said Courtney Boyle, general manager of Express. After all, Missouri had just cut off federal unemployment benefits.

    Business owners had complained that the assistance, as Gov. Mike Parson put it, “incentivized people to stay out of the work force.” He made Missouri one of the first four states to halt the federal aid; a total of 26 have said they will do so by next month. But in the St. Louis metropolitan area, where the jobless rate was 4.2 percent in May, those who expected the June 12 termination would unleash a flood of job seekers were disappointed.

    Work-force development officials said they had seen virtually no uptick in applicants since the governor’s announcement, which...

  • RT @DavidAFrench: It would be one thing if this person was ranting to nobody, but he has 2.2 million followers on Facebook.
    David Wessel Sun 27 Jun 2021 22:58
  • RT @conorsen: It’s going to be 30 degrees hotter in Portland than Atlanta tomorrow.
    David Wessel Sun 27 Jun 2021 21:23
  • RT @BrookingsEcon: Tuesday: Join the discussion of a new #FinancialStability report w/ @davidmwessel, Glenn Hubbard (@Columbia_Biz), Donald…
    David Wessel Sun 27 Jun 2021 21:03
  • Att @RobinBrooksIIF Treasury yields climbed after slumping this morning. Now higher than they were before the FOMC statement and SEP. Not as high as there were but still up from pre-FOMC, right? https://t.co/REaNnJxBZJ
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 20:03
  • Fed raised RRP rate by 5 basis point and ... pow! Link
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 19:48

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  • RT @RobinBrooksIIF: 2nd time something hawkish happens & yields fall: (i) high CPI inflation June 10; (ii) today's drop after yesterday's F…
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 19:48
  • Senate Democrats eyeing roughly $6 trillion reconciliation package on infrastructure, healthcare and climate change (including lowering Medicare age to 60) Link
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 19:43

    Senate Democrats are considering a sweeping roughly $6 trillion reconciliation package that could advance key elements of President Biden’s infrastructure plan along with additional reforms targeting climate change and health care, aiming to sidestep likely Republican opposition on Capitol Hill.

  • Average yield on ICE BofA municipal bond index is below 1% as money flows into muni bond mutual funds. Link via @financialtimes https://t.co/ae79RTUwZL
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 16:18
  • How much did COVID-related federal legislation boost personal income? (A lot.) A chart from this week’s Hutchins Roundup @BrookingsEcon Link https://t.co/g1lunMx703
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 15:37

    The Hutchins Roundup brings the latest in fiscal and monetary policy to your inbox. Have something you'd like us to include in the next Roundup? Email us and we'll take a look.

  • Wow. That was quick. Link
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 15:02

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  • When Hutchins Center surveyed academic & market Fed watchers, slightly fewer than half said they found the ‘dots’ to be very useful. Nearly 20% said they were useless (or not very useful). Chair's press conference got much higher marks. Link @BrookingsEcon
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 14:57

    A new Hutchins Center survey of Federal Reserve watchers in academia and the private sector finds a substantial improvement in their grades of the Fed’s communication efforts compared to a similar survey conducted in 2016.

    Of the 46 respondents, 25 (54 percent) gave Fed communications an overall grade of A or A-. In the 2016 survey, only 4 of 58 respondents gave comparable ratings. The median grade for 20 Fed watchers who participated in both surveys went from a B in 2016 to an A-/B+ in the 2020. Respondents from academic institutions and think tanks generally gave the Fed higher marks than did those who work on Wall Street or in other financial institutions.

    “When I began covering the Fed for the Wall Street Journal in 1987, the Fed didn’t even announce when it decided to move interest rates,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center. “Since then, the Fed has become increasingly transparent. While it can never satisfy those on Wall Street who want...

  • Budget nerds alert: This year is the 100th anniversary of the federal Budget & Accounting Act which laid the foundation for today’s budget process (such as it is.) There’s actually a week-long virtual conference to mark that next week: Link
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 14:22
  • Over half (55 percent) of US counties had more deaths than births in 2020 compared to 45 percent in 2019 and 35 percent in 2010 Link
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 13:57

    By August Benzow

    As the country’s population growth fell to its lowest rate since the 1930s last year, a majority of counties lost residents according to the latest Census Bureau estimates. For the year ending July 1, 2020, Sunbelt metro areas, the Mountain West, and the Pacific Northwest enjoyed robust population growth. By contrast, the urban Midwest and Northeast added to their long population declines along with large parts of Appalachia and the rural South. Expensive coastal areas like the Bay Area and New York City also shed population, hit hard by domestic out migration and a dwindling pipeline of international migration. Exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, net international migration nationally sunk to its lowest number of the decade, falling to 477,000 from 719,900 in the year prior. At the same time, the U.S. birth rate fell to four percent, its lowest point ever.

    Key takeaways from the Census estimates:

  • RT @InnovateEconomy: Where is population booming and where is it dwindling? EIG mapped the demographic decline throughout the Midwest & Nor…
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 13:02
  • Neil Irwin on Jay Powell. Interesting take on what he has learned from recent past policy mistakes . Link
    David Wessel Thu 17 Jun 2021 12:57
    Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, made clear that he believes the fundamentals of the economy are stable, even though the pandemic has thrown it for a loop.Credit...Eric Baradat/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
  • Scott Gottlieb thinks Powell is too gloomy. Link
    David Wessel Wed 16 Jun 2021 19:27

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  • RT @ScottGottliebMD: Fed Chairman's COVID outlook seems pessimistic. More likely that we'll continue to see low prevalence this summer, wit…
    David Wessel Wed 16 Jun 2021 19:27
  • RT @greg_ip: So the biggest market moving part of this meeting, the changed rate forecast for 2023, is something Powell said the FOMC didn'…
    David Wessel Wed 16 Jun 2021 19:22
  • RT @BeschlossDC: With reporters, Putin becomes philosopher: "In life there is no happiness. There’s only the mirage of happiness on the hor…
    David Wessel Wed 16 Jun 2021 16:36
  • Putin clearly enjoys the back and forth of the press conference. Link
    David Wessel Wed 16 Jun 2021 16:36

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

  • And the WSJ reporter at the Putin presser asks her question in Russian
    David Wessel Wed 16 Jun 2021 16:26
  • RT @RichardvReeves: Such important work here on job transitions & career mobility (or lack thereof) from @MarcelaEscobari & her team: https…
    David Wessel Wed 16 Jun 2021 13:26
  • The @NYTimes says Biden will make Lina Khan, a big-tech critic just confirmed for a seat on the FTC, the new chair. Link
    David Wessel Tue 15 Jun 2021 20:11

    President Biden named Lina Khan, a prominent critic of Big Tech, as the chair of the Federal Trade Commission, according to two people with knowledge of the decision, a move that signals that the agency is likely to crack down further on the industry’s giants.

    A public announcement of the decision is expected Tuesday, one of the people said.

    Earlier in the day, the Senate voted 69 to 28 to confirm Ms. Khan, 32, to a seat at the agency. The commission investigates antitrust violations, deceptive trade practices and data privacy lapses in Silicon Valley.

    Ms. Khan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    In her new role, Ms. Khan will help regulate the kind of behavior highlighted for years by critics of Amazon, Facebook, Google and Apple. She told a Senate committee in April that she was worried about the way tech companies could use their power to dominate new markets. She first attracted notice as a critic of Amazon. The agency is...

  • Slate has some excerpts from the Senate Parliamentarian's latest on reconcliation: The opinion doesn’t say “no,” but it gives filibuster-friendly Democrats an excuse to be squeamish. Link via @slate
    David Wessel Thu 03 Jun 2021 00:43

    A couple of months ago, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office announced that it had figured out a way to move more of President Joe Biden’s agenda around the 60-vote threshold needed to break a Senate filibuster.

    Under the budget reconciliation process—which Democrats used to pass their $1.9 trillion COVID relief plan in January—budget-related legislation that meets certain conditions isn’t subject to a filibuster, and thus can pass with 50 votes. The first step of the process is to pass an annual budget resolution that includes reconciliation instructions. The conventional wisdom, then, held that senators were limited to one reconciliation bill per fiscal year.

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