• RT @BillKristol: That Pompeo statement is “just” a petulant and arrogant expression by a senior cabinet officer with the temperament of a b…
    David Wessel Sat 25 Jan 2020 20:33
  • Hutchins Center's weekly round up of new economic research: Occupational Licenses, Monetary Policy's Long-Term Effects, and More Link via @BrookingsInst
    David Wessel Fri 24 Jan 2020 20:42

    “Regarding our stress tests under the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), I continue to look for ways to make the tests more transparent without making them game-able and without diluting their potency as a supervisory tool[….] First, I expect that we will continue to provide more transparency on the models used in CCAR. We started providing improved transparency on models last year, and…we will remain on that path until we have released substantial details on all of our key models. We also continue to consider ways to increase the transparency around the scenarios we use in CCAR[….],” says Randal K. Quarles, Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

    “Second, I expect that as part of the stress capital buffer, we will give banks significantly more time to review their stress test results and understand their capital requirements before we demand their final capital plan. Firms are currently permitted to revise and resubmit their...

  • Post-crisis US financial regulation: Are we moving towards risk sensitivity? - Mark Sobel interviews Dan Tarullo Link
    David Wessel Fri 24 Jan 2020 16:27

    It has been almost 10 years since the 2008 financial crisis and the enactment of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street reform and consumer protection act. Daniel Tarullo, who was responsible for leading the Federal Reserve Board on financial regulatory reform, including implementing of the Dodd-Frank act, joins Mark Sobel, US chairman at OMFIF, to assess the state of the US banking system. They discuss whether the system is weakening with ‘quiet deregulation,’ concerns over shadow banking and potential regulatory capture, and the need to double down on macroprudential policy in search of high yield in a low interest rate environment.

    Daniel Tarullo is a professor of practice at Harvard Law School who served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee (2009-17). He was also the Federal Reserve’s representative to the international Financial Stability Board, including four years as chair of its committee on supervision and regulation.

  • RT @BrookingsEcon: Low-wage workers have experienced slightly better wage growth in recent years, thanks in part to recent increases in sta…
    David Wessel Fri 24 Jan 2020 15:27
  • What I learned today: The term "red-lining" dates to 1933 when the govt's HOLC created color-coded maps to rate neighborhoods on credit risk -- and black neighborhoods were colored red even if middle class, single family homes. h/t MIchelle Layser
    David Wessel Fri 24 Jan 2020 14:07
  • We've gleaned the various explanations for why inflation isn't behaving as expected in a new Hutchins Center@BrookingsEcon report: What's (Not) Up with Inflation? Includes comments from Janet Yellen Link
    David Wessel Fri 24 Jan 2020 14:02
  • RT @ConstanceHunter: ICYMI @uscensusbureau released the latest population data. Spoiler alert: A trifecta of bad news. Population is growi…
    David Wessel Fri 24 Jan 2020 12:52
  • RT @joshtpm: Watch this https://t.co/zTEGSwNAjH
    David Wessel Fri 24 Jan 2020 11:16
  • RT @JayCShambaugh: We (@hamiltonproj) will be talking taxes Tuesday next week (1/28). We're releasing a book of proposals to raise revenue…
    David Wessel Thu 23 Jan 2020 21:36
  • What's (not) up with inflation? A new Hutchins Center report w/contributions from Janet Yellen, Sage Belz and me. @BrookingsInst Link
    David Wessel Thu 23 Jan 2020 20:36
  • RT @ConorDougherty: My Jim Lehrer story (1/3). Many years ago I decided I wanted to write a love story about buses. Everyone loves trains.…
    David Wessel Thu 23 Jan 2020 20:01
  • We’ve lost another good one: Jim Lehrer Link via @NYTimes
    David Wessel Thu 23 Jan 2020 18:41
    Jim Lehrer in 2013. A fixture on public television for decades as an anchor, he also moderated a dozen presidential debates and wrote novels and plays.Credit...Christopher Gregory for The New York Times
  • ECB launches review of monetary policy strategy, will complete by year-end. "The quantitative formulation of price stability, together with the approaches and instruments by which price stability is achieved, will figure prominently in this exercise." Link
    David Wessel Thu 23 Jan 2020 15:41
    Review will encompass quantitative formulation of price stability, monetary policy toolkit, economic and monetary analyses and communication practicesOther considerations, such as financial stability, employment and environmental sustainability, will also be part of review Expected to be concluded by end of 2020Review will be based on thorough analysis and open minds, engaging with all stakeholders
  • Noted: Share of private sector workers in unions fell to new low of 6.2% in 2019. In public sector, it’s 29.4%. Link via @WSJ https://t.co/DAN0IgzREc
    David Wessel Thu 23 Jan 2020 14:01

    The number of union members fell by 170,000 in 2019—a year when U.S. employers added more than 2.1 million jobs—reducing the share of the workforce in labor unions to 10.3%, the lowest portion on record since 1983, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Overall union membership rates have trended at record lows for a decade.

    “The big picture presents the now familiar story of a gradual decline in unions across most industries,” said Marick Masters, a business professor at Wayne State University in Detroit who studies labor unions.

    In 2019, there were 14.6 million union members and 141.7 million total U.S. workers.

    The fall in union membership reflects both the declining power of organized labor in the U.S. and slower employment growth in traditionally more unionized industries, such as manufacturing, transportation and utilities, compared with health care and other services.

    Economists point to the decline as a reason why wage growth has been...

  • Tesla's market cap ($100 billion) is now greater than that of any other automaker except Toyota. Link via @WSJ
    David Wessel Thu 23 Jan 2020 13:31

    Elon Musk has navigated Tesla Inc. into new territory, as the electric-car maker’s market value topped $100 billion Wednesday and overtook Volkswagen AG as the world’s No. 2 most valuable auto maker.

    Tesla shares rose 4.1% to $569.56, lifting its market cap to $102.7 billion, according to FactSet. Crossing the $100 billion threshold could start unlocking a more than $50 billion pay package for Mr. Musk. Volkswagen shares fell 1.19% in German trading, putting its market cap around 90 billion euros ($99.6 billion).

    Tesla shareholders almost two years ago approved an incentive package for Mr. Musk considered one of the most lucrative for any chief executive. The first tranche of options under that arrangement nominally would net $346 million if immediately sold at today’s price.

  • Jeff Stein becomes new White House economics reporter - The Washington Post Link
    David Wessel Wed 22 Jan 2020 19:15

    In his new position, Jeff will write about the impact of White House economic policy on the lives and livelihoods of Americans across the country, as well as the central role these policies will play in the 2020 presidential election. Jeff also will lead coverage of the White House Office of Management and Budget and the Treasury Department under President Trump, as they assist in the Trump administration's efforts to remake the American economy.

  • RT @juliaoftoronto: Quarantined a city of 11 million. Wow.
    David Wessel Wed 22 Jan 2020 19:00
  • Brynjolfsson & Collis: How should we measure the digital economy? Link via @BrookingsInst Hutchins Center productivity measurement initiative
    David Wessel Wed 22 Jan 2020 19:00

    Over the past 40 years, we’ve seen an explosion of digital goods and services: Google, Facebook, LinkedIn, Skype, Wikipedia, online courses, maps, messaging, music, and all the other apps on your smartphone. Because many internet services are free, they largely go uncounted in official measures of economic activity such as GDP and Productivity (which is simply GDP/hours worked). The contribution of the Information sector as a fraction of the total GDP has barely changed over the past 40 years. The reason is that GDP is based on what people pay for goods and services so if something has zero price, then it has zero weight in GDP. In the meantime, GDP measures the monetary value of all final goods produced in the economy, but it doesn’t measure well-being. If we want to understand how the internet is contributing to our economy, we need better ways to measure free services like Facebook, Google and Wikipedia.

    In response to this challenge, Brynjolfsson and Collis of...

  • Economic Inequality: A Policy Series - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK Link
    David Wessel Wed 22 Jan 2020 18:55
    Inequality: Household & Community Impacts Moderator: Claire Kramer Mills, Ph.D., AVP and Director, Community Development Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Marissa Muñoz, Northeast Director, Young Invincibles Martha Ross, Fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institution David Williams, Policy Director, Opportunity Insights
  • New CNN poll: Overall, 27% of registered voters who are Democrats or Dem-leaning independents back Sanders, while 24% favor Biden. The margin between the two is within the poll's margin of sampling error, meaning there is no clear leader in this poll. Link
    David Wessel Wed 22 Jan 2020 13:45
    Overall, 27% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents back Sanders, while 24% favor Biden. The margin between the two is within the poll's margin of sampling error, meaning there is no clear leader in this poll. Both, however, are significantly ahead of the rest of the field, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14% and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11%. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg lands at 5% in the poll, while Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Andrew Yang each hold 4% support. Businessman Tom Steyer has 2%. No other candidate reaches 1% support.
  • Pool report from Davos (Anne Gearan): . Pool saw a message traced in large letters in the snow, apparently where POTUS could have seen it from the air: “There is no Planet B”
    David Wessel Wed 22 Jan 2020 13:45
  • Congrats, John! Link
    David Wessel Tue 21 Jan 2020 21:44

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

  • Wages at the bottom and the top have been rising faster than wages at the middle since 2010. Link via Nunn and Shambaugh @BrookingsEcon #Policy2020 https://t.co/ixbaf0U3SE
    David Wessel Tue 21 Jan 2020 18:29

    Over the last 40 years, wage growth for typical American workers has been extraordinarily weak. The typical worker has certainly gained some ground—especially over the last 25 years—and different inflation adjustments can make those gains appear somewhat larger. But by any measure, wages at the middle have grown more slowly than at the top and more slowly than the economy overall. In addition, fewer Americans are earning more than their parents did at similar ages, perhaps explaining discontent with the economy despite the consistent economic growth and low unemployment rates. Many presidential candidates highlight this discontent.

  • WEBINAR: 1/29 at 2PM EST: How should state and local govts prepare for the next recession? @BrookingsEcon Hutchins Center #MuniFinance Link
    David Wessel Tue 21 Jan 2020 15:44

    During the Great Recession, cities and states saw revenue declines and expenditure increases. This led to record levels of fiscal stress resulting in service cuts, deferred maintenance of infrastructure, and reduced payments to pensions and other liabilities. This webinar will focus on how state and local governments can adopt best practices and strategies now in order to mitigate the impacts of any future recessions. This may include maintaining adequate cash balances, stress testing revenues and expenditures, and reviewing fees and benefits.

    To understand the practices and strategies firsthand, we will be joined by Michael Nadol, managing director of the PFM Group, and Laura Porter, managing director and head of U.S. public finance at Fitch Ratings, in conversation with the Hutchins Center’s David Wessel. The presentations will be followed by a discussion with webinar participants.

    The annual Municipal Finance Conference is sponsored by the Hutchins Center on...

  • Eggertson & Summers: Aging populations have been a drag on economies, but only after the 2008 Great Recession in countries with ultra-low interest rates. Link
    David Wessel Tue 21 Jan 2020 15:39

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

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