Per this @CNBC headline, and in contrast to long historical relationships, it's now normal to attribute causation from changes in yields on government #bonds to moves in the #NASDAQ. Having said, @FerroTV reminded us this morning that causation and correlation are often confused. https://t.co/PDPfiLRnUm
Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 22 Mar 2021 12:42

RT @bopinion: The Fed's messaging and recent U.S. market moves pose three tricky questions for investors, @elerianm says https://t.co/z5dK3…
Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 22 Mar 2021 12:32

Relatively calm US pre-market as #traders and #investors watch for a flood of #Fed speakers this week. With lower yields for #bonds (10 year at 1.67%) and futures flat to higher for #stocks, the big #volatility is elsewhere including #Turkey where the #currency is down some 10%.
Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 22 Mar 2021 11:37

RT @QueensCam: Starting today: our first ever Queens' Green Week. Created by a collaboration between MCR and JCR students, this promises to…
Mohamed A. El-Erian Mon 22 Mar 2021 10:47

A busy week for the global #economy/#markets with Lots of #Fed speakers (at least 10 on Monday-Tuesday, including Chair #Powell with @USTreasury Secretary @SecYellen) Macro data, including PMI for Europe and US Spillover from the #Turkey central bank news Fixed income technicals.
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 21 Mar 2021 20:06

From @markets and further to my earlier tweets on #Turkey and #EmergingMarkets #EM #economy #markets #lira #fx #currency #centralbanks #investing #investors #foreignexchange #monetarypolicy https://t.co/5kkuvSt5QT
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 21 Mar 2021 18:51

Unlike #bonds, specialized #investors have been much more hesitant to short #stocks in general; and understandably so as the central bank driven liquidity paradigm has confronted shorts with a generalized steamroller Issue: Will this change as the bond market challenges the #Fed? https://t.co/ReFrAAtBpy
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 21 Mar 2021 18:11

This growth chart from the @ECB (via the @FT) is just one illustration of the generally more muted expectations for the Eurozone's recovery. (And the balance of risk favors downward revisions.) They are particularly stark when compared to higher and improving US growth forecasts. https://t.co/qmgNkCcGAm
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 21 Mar 2021 17:16

Many viewed #EmergingMarkets as part of the 2021 investment recovery trade Others, including me, felt it was more about individual names/structures rather than index positioning (local/external). Issue now: How headlines like these for 3 heavily traded countries will impact flows https://t.co/qFojlezFDc
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 21 Mar 2021 17:06

Many viewed #EmergingMarkets as part of the 2021 investment recovery trade Others, including me, felt it was more about individual names/structures rather than index positioning (local/external). Issue now: How headlines like these for 3 heavily traded countries will impact flows https://t.co/X4ne3KSSdT
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 21 Mar 2021 17:01

... and this from Bloomberg Markets. #economy #markets #bonds #inflation #fed #federalreserve @markets https://t.co/dtv6PEneUe
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 21 Mar 2021 01:51

This @markets headline points to #Fed's deepening dilemma as #markets prices higher growth/inflation: More QE risks further concerns about policy-induced over-heating, pressuring yields more. YCC, the next "unconventional" step,has its own complications Solution:Better policy mix https://t.co/jbsS7A2SXr
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sun 21 Mar 2021 00:51

From @markets Given his high standing among economists and others, @LHSummers' remarks will intensify a robust debate on US fiscal/monetary policies, esply as the Biden administration pivots to a 2nd fiscal package which, compared to the 1st, aims squarely at longer-term recovery https://t.co/VaE9uCqq9A
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 20 Mar 2021 15:25

From the article by @colbyLsmith in the @FT on the @FederalReserve "locked in a high-stakes showdown with #markets" (link below). One of the toughest issues here is the possibility of tipping points in #markets' reactions Link #economy #bonds #fed #centralbanks https://t.co/QZ1iDvfPi7
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 20 Mar 2021 11:20

The @FT on the sacking of the central bank governor in #Turkey. This will come as quite a shock to many who had embraced the move to more orthodox monetary policy and taken the currency stronger, including after this week's bigger-than-expected interest rate hike #EmergingMarkets https://t.co/ScRElhlW5K
Mohamed A. El-Erian Sat 20 Mar 2021 10:45

From this week’s edition of @TheEconomist https://t.co/fGLSevnroM
Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 19 Mar 2021 20:35

From @FederalReserve Chair Jerome Powell's article in the @WSJ Many will see this as a repeat of the early January "verbal intervention" in response to what was then about a 20 bps move in 10-year yields. The question is how long will the bond market be comforted with these words https://t.co/sWEZSpgkxf
Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 19 Mar 2021 16:24

10-year #UST yield has retraced all of its earlier move down. At 1.74, it's now higher on the day. As to why, some point to the #Fed's SLR decisions. Others point to Growing inconsistencies between the changing economic paradigm and static policies, Flows or All of the above. https://t.co/S0UCYX93OT
Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 19 Mar 2021 13:39

.@FT re Bank of #Japan's announcement This will, inevitably,be subject to different interpretations, especially when it comes to what the central bank wishes to do and is likely to get done I would add that systemically-important #CentralBanks will be joining the dispersion theme https://t.co/m15wkbGWsF
Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 19 Mar 2021 11:49

.#Markets' focus remains on US #bonds Overnight,the 10-year yield dipped below 1.67% before increasing to almost 1.70% (chart). Underlying this is a tug of war: Endogenous stabilizing flows (domestic/foreign) and the overhang of possible #Fed action versus higher growth/inflation https://t.co/XTmO1sprFt
Mohamed A. El-Erian Fri 19 Mar 2021 11:24

Lots to note about today's difficult #trading session for #stocks and #bonds ... including how the late-session (partial) retracement in yields failed to alleviate, at least as of now, some of the pressure on the major indices (the #NASDAQ in particular). More to follow. #markets https://t.co/bV3veBAnKI
Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 18 Mar 2021 21:29

Sign of: The gravity of the "third wave" hitting more countries in continental Europe, Worsening of the double-dip recession risk, Amplification of the dispersion theme detailed in recent weeks for the global economy, and Importance for the UK and US to maintain infection control https://t.co/0dXxu2CY7i
Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 18 Mar 2021 18:19

A simple way--via a chart on the year-to-date performance of the NASDAQ, Dow and a #banks' ETF--to illustrate not just the #markets' theme rotation (from at home to re-opening names) but also inclination to re-assess #CentralBanks repressive influence on yields curves for #bonds. https://t.co/tjzneDfnS4
Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 18 Mar 2021 15:53

As yields rise and curves steepen (per the charts, 2s-10s are trading at 158 bps and 2s-30s at 233 bps), some technical levels in fixed income are being notably tested, including long-standing ones. Meanwhile, the 10-year US-Germany differential is at 200 bps, boosting the dollar https://t.co/6gWnPSFWFa
Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 18 Mar 2021 14:33

RT @YahooFinance: "This is not a time to simply invest your stimulus funds in the most volatile assets," Allianz Chief Economic Adviser @El…
Mohamed A. El-Erian Thu 18 Mar 2021 13:58