The global economic outlook is increasingly bleak, but data from early 2022 suggest that Latin America is at least moving into a difficult second half of 2022 from a strong position. Several economic indicators have highlighted the strength of activity in the region’s major economies in the first half of the year: private-sector credit has recovered and is growing robustly; wage growth is in many countries still positive in real terms; and job growth has gathered pace. However, the strength of activity early this year is shown particularly clearly in the latest foreign direct investment (FDI) data. In the first quarter of 2022 there was a dramatic increase in FDI into the region, with several countries posting their highest inflows in more than a decade. It is possible that some of the spike in FDI can be attributed to one-off transactions or a pile-up of investments delayed by covid-19. However, EIU believes that there are...

In EIU’s latest global outlook video, global forecasting director Agathe Demarais, and senior analyst Matthew Oxenford, explore Germany’s outlook amid a reduction in Russian gas supplies, and what this situation means for the euro zone.

The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) held its foreign ministers’ meeting (and associated meetings) in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, on August 2nd?6th. The joint communique reiterated support for regional “community building” initiatives and voiced concern over several geopolitical hot spots. A separate statement was issued on the “cross-Strait development”, following an intensification of tension between China and Taiwan.

Why does it matter?

ASEAN members represent important “swing” votes for China and the US as their competition for influence deepens. The bloc is clearly concerned about the military action taken by China following the visit to Taiwan by a senior US parliamentarian, Nancy Pelosi, but is also confused about the motivation for the trip. The ASEAN statement, which appears intentionally vague, did not mention “Taiwan” and reiterated support for a “one-China policy”, leaving room for this to be defined by...

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In EIU’s latest global outlook video, global forecasting director Agathe Demarais, and senior analyst Matthew Oxenford, explore Germany’s outlook amid a reduction in Russian gas supplies, and what this situation means for the euro zone.

Gerard is a Manager in the Health Policy and Clinical Evidence team. He holds a PhD in Public Health and Epidemiology from Maastricht University. His areas of expertise are health promotion, evidence synthesis and workplace health.