Growth in the Tenth District slowed to a modest pace, with mixed performance across segments of the regional economy. Consumer spending declined slightly, with the most significant reduction reported for larger ticket items. After several months of historically high growth in the manufacturing sector, overall growth slowed to a modest pace. Contacts pointed to shipping delays, and difficulties procuring or storing materials, as barriers to growth. New demand for residential construction declined amid rising interest rates, though contacts reported that backlogs in orders will support construction employment over the medium term. Energy activity expanded at a solid pace with drilling activity and production rising in several District states. Job growth picked up recently as several contacts pointed to improvement in the number of applicants for open positions. Several businesses across sectors indicated they began to offer pre-paid gas cards or direct payments to offset rising...

Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.

The Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 financial market variables.

A positive value indicates that financial stress is above the long-run average, while a negative value signifies that financial stress is below the long-run average. Another useful way to assess the current level of financial stress is to compare the index to its value during past, widely recognized episodes of financial stress.

During the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, policymakers used large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) along with forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate to help stabilize financial markets. However, policymakers and economists have yet to reach a consensus on the efficacy of LSAPs in providing accommodation and improving macroeconomic outcomes. Because announced changes in LSAPs often coincide with changes in forward guidance, the market responses to these two tools can be difficult to disentangle and each tool’s efficacy challenging to evaluate.

Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith attempt to measure the efficacy of the FOMC’s previous asset purchase programs during the Great Recession while explicitly accounting for changes in forward guidance. They find that controlling for concurrent changes in forward guidance implies a roughly 25 percent reduction in the accommodative effects of the FOMC’s first two asset purchase programs relative to...

This databook provides current economic indicators to help monitor trends and allow comparison of past information. These indicators include employment; employment by industry; county and state unemployment; demographics; personal income; home prices; housing indicators; manufacturing activity; and oil, gas and coal production.

2022 - Second Quarter

Larger sized loans continued to boost lending activity in the second quarter while farm loan interest rates edged higher. The volume of non-real estate agricultural loans grew at a steady pace alongside an increase in the number and average size of loans. Interest rates remained historically low but continued to increase from recent quarters on nearly all types of farm loans, as benchmark rates rose further. The average maturity of some types of loans, particularly real estate loans, also increased during the quarter and were above recent historic averages.

Farm lending activity showed signs of rebounding from the pullback in recent years and could grow further in the coming months as the higher costs of many major inputs become more fully realized. Despite recent declines, agricultural commodity prices remained elevated through the first half of 2022 and continued to support revenue and income prospects across the farm sector. However, persistent pressure...

The Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) suggest the level of activity increased slightly and momentum was little changed in July. The level of activity indicator increased by 0.07 in July from 1.39 to 1.46. Meanwhile, the momentum indicator was little changed in July at 0.14. As seen in the chart below, the momentum indicator remained above its longer-run average in July even as the level of activity indicator remained near its cyclical high.

These readings likely do not fully describe the state of the labor market at the end of July, as many of the input data series reflect conditions early in the month. For example, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Household Survey are from the reference period of July 10 through July 16. Additionally, the most recent data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) are for June. Therefore, labor market developments in the latter half of July will likely show up in the August 2022...

Some economic commentators suggest strong household balance sheets may provide some relief from the strains associated with rising prices and economic uncertainty. Besides an increase in savings for some households, much of the recent strengthening in household balance sheets reflects improvements in their debt conditions. Across the Rocky Mountain region, delinquency rates were low for most households and the costs of household debts remained subdued through the beginning of 2022. More recently, however, a larger share of households began to express difficulties paying for typical expenses.

Today, the top officer of a Federal Reserve Bank has the title of president and CEO. In the early decades of the Kansas City Fed, the title was a bit different—and so was the process for transitioning from one leader to the next.

In 1922, the Bank’s Board of Directors turned to one its original members—influential Kansas banker Willis J. Bailey—to be Jo Zach Miller Jr.’s successor as “governor,” essentially the Bank’s day-to-day chief executive. For Bailey, who had been key a voice for locating a Reserve Bank in Kansas City, the title of governor was not new. He served as governor of the state of Kansas from 1903 to 1905. He led the Kansas City Fed until 1932.

Over time, the top officer’s title for a Reserve Bank was changed to president.

Today, a Reserve Bank president is selected by a search committee comprising the Bank’s Class B and Class C directors (board members who are not affiliated with a supervised financial institution). The committee hires a...

Growth in the Tenth District slowed to a modest pace, with mixed performance across segments of the regional economy. Consumer spending declined slightly, with the most significant reduction reported for larger ticket items. After several months of historically high growth in the manufacturing sector, overall growth slowed to a modest pace. Contacts pointed to shipping delays, and difficulties procuring or storing materials, as barriers to growth. New demand for residential construction declined amid rising interest rates, though contacts reported that backlogs in orders will support construction employment over the medium term. Energy activity expanded at a solid pace with drilling activity and production rising in several District states. Job growth picked up recently as several contacts pointed to improvement in the number of applicants for open positions. Several businesses across sectors indicated they began to offer pre-paid gas cards or direct payments to offset rising...

The Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 financial market variables.

A positive value indicates that financial stress is above the long-run average, while a negative value signifies that financial stress is below the long-run average. Another useful way to assess the current level of financial stress is to compare the index to its value during past, widely recognized episodes of financial stress.

The Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) suggest the level of activity increased slightly and momentum was little changed in July. The level of activity indicator increased by 0.07 in July from 1.39 to 1.46. Meanwhile, the momentum indicator was little changed in July at 0.14. As seen in the chart below, the momentum indicator remained above its longer-run average in July even as the level of activity indicator remained near its cyclical high.

These readings likely do not fully describe the state of the labor market at the end of July, as many of the input data series reflect conditions early in the month. For example, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Household Survey are from the reference period of July 10 through July 16. Additionally, the most recent data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) are for June. Therefore, labor market developments in the latter half of July will likely show up in the August 2022...

In May, the Kansas City Fed's Kansas City Money Museum took down its Harry S. Truman Coin Collection for necessary conservation and appraisal. Experts from Stack’s Bowers Galleries spent two days cleaning and reviewing the Bank's 1,300 pieces of currency, which include many foreign, antique and commemorative items in secured storage.

As part of the conservation work, the museum staff will receive a report from the numismatists, experts in the study of coins, at Stack's Bowers . The report will likely include an assessment of the collection’s value, a rating of the collection, suggested additional conservation work and other recommendations for displaying, saving and storing currency.

The one-of-its-kind Truman Coin Collection includes coins that were in circulation during each U.S. Presidency, starting all the way back with George Washington. The collection is on permanent loan to the Bank from the External LinkHarry S. Truman Library & Museum. The...

In May, the Kansas City Fed's Kansas City Money Museum took down its Harry S. Truman Coin Collection for necessary conservation and appraisal. Experts from Stack’s Bowers Galleries spent two days cleaning and reviewing the Bank's 1,300 pieces of currency, which include many foreign, antique and commemorative items in secured storage.

As part of the conservation work, the museum staff will receive a report from the numismatists, experts in the study of coins, at Stack's Bowers . The report will likely include an assessment of the collection’s value, a rating of the collection, suggested additional conservation work and other recommendations for displaying, saving and storing currency.

The one-of-its-kind Truman Coin Collection includes coins that were in circulation during each U.S. Presidency, starting all the way back with George Washington. The collection is on permanent loan to the Bank from the External LinkHarry S. Truman Library & Museum. The...

One of the feature exhibits at the Money Museum is the Truman Coin Collection on loan from the Harry S. Truman Presidential Library and Museum. This collection consists of 450 coins and was originally the personal collection of John Snyder, the Secretary of the Treasury during the Truman administration. This collection was completed and given to the Truman Presidential Library in Independence, Missouri for public display in March of 1962.

In November of 1962, the coin collection was stolen from its display at the Library and Museum. The original collection was never recovered, however, Snyder and John Stacks, a rare coin dealer in New York, reassembled a comparable collection from the donations of 167 coin collectors. This collection was presented to President Truman on May 6, 1967 by Stacks and Snyder and was placed on display once more.

One of the feature exhibits at the Money Museum is the Truman Coin Collection on loan from the Harry S. Truman Presidential Library and Museum. This collection consists of 450 coins and was originally the personal collection of John Snyder, the Secretary of the Treasury during the Truman administration. This collection was completed and given to the Truman Presidential Library in Independence, Missouri for public display in March of 1962.

In November of 1962, the coin collection was stolen from its display at the Library and Museum. The original collection was never recovered, however, Snyder and John Stacks, a rare coin dealer in New York, reassembled a comparable collection from the donations of 167 coin collectors. This collection was presented to President Truman on May 6, 1967 by Stacks and Snyder and was placed on display once more.

The Kansas City Fed's annual event explored labor's role in determining the long-range view for agriculture and related businesses, how policies will shape that outlook, and the potential for structural change.

Growth in the Tenth District slowed to a modest pace, with mixed performance across segments of the regional economy. Consumer spending declined slightly, with the most significant reduction reported for larger ticket items. After several months of historically high growth in the manufacturing sector, overall growth slowed to a modest pace. Contacts pointed to shipping delays, and difficulties procuring or storing materials, as barriers to growth. New demand for residential construction declined amid rising interest rates, though contacts reported that backlogs in orders will support construction employment over the medium term. Energy activity expanded at a solid pace with drilling activity and production rising in several District states. Job growth picked up recently as several contacts pointed to improvement in the number of applicants for open positions. Several businesses across sectors indicated they began to offer pre-paid gas cards or direct payments to offset rising...

Farm loan balances at commercial banks continued to decline through the first half of the year according to recent Call Report data. Total farm debt decreased toward the historic average on a rolling four quarter basis in real dollar terms and the stabilization has mostly been driven by a pullback in production loans (Chart 1). As of the second quarter, farm real estate debt remained about 8% above the average of the past decade while non-real estate debt was about 13% less than the average over that same period.