EUR/USD bulls moved in for the kill at the start of the week in a risk-on environment, Given the bullish environment surrounding US yield and the greenback, the floodgates could open up below 1.0150.

GBP/USD trims some of last Friday’s losses but remains trapped between the 20 and 50-DMA. The daily chart depicts the pair trending between a descending channel as sellers eye the 20-day EMA. The GBP/USD 4-hour scale depicts the pair as neutral-downward biased and might test the 1.2000 figure, short term.

The USD/CAD pair will likely decline toward 1.22 in the coming quarters with the oil/loonie correlation turning positive again, point out analysts at National Bank of Canada. They see the WTI oil price stabilizing at 90$ per barrel.

The NZD/USD is rising on Monday, although it trimmed gains during the last hours. The pair peaked at 0.6303 and then pulled back to 0.6280. It is positive ground for the day, supported by a weaker US dollar and risk appetite.

The greenback is falling across the board as US yields move to the downside. The US 10-year stands at 2.76%, far from Friday’s top of 2.88%. The DXY falls 0.25% and trades below 106.30.

A report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed a decline in inflation expectations. “The outcome provides some relief but does little to alter the bigger picture - short-term inflation expectations (2y) remain well above the 1-3% target band, Q2 headline CPI and non-tradeable inflation handily exceeded the RBNZ's May MPS forecasts while core inflation measures are edging higher. Along with accelerating wages growth, the data suggest that the RBNZ's job is still not done and look for a 4th straight 50bps hike at the upcoming Aug meeting”, explained...

Gold price edges higher on Monday, up by 0.72%, as US  bond yields fall. Broad US dollar weakness keeps the non-yielding metal buoyant, underpinned by the US-China conflict in Taiwan. Fed’s Bowman: Backs a 75 bps in September and supports “similar-size” moves in subsequent meetings. Gold Price Forecast (XAUUSD): Neutral-to-bearish below $1800; otherwise, a correction to $1738.91.

USD/JPY tumbles, due to its high correlation with the US 10-year bond yield, dropping below 2.80%. Fed’s Bowman: The Fed should consider 75 bps in future meetings. US CPI and PPI for July, both inflations readings are eyed.

The USD/CHF dropped further after the beginning of the American session and bottomed at 0.9521, reaching the lowest level since Tuesday. It is hovering around 0.9530, with a negative tone, down a hundred pips for the day.

The Swiss franc is among the strongest currencies of the day. EUR/CHF fell from near 0.9800 to 0.9717 (1-week low) and GBP/CHF tumbled to 1.1543 (lowest since July 26). CHF/JPY rose back above the 20-day Simple Moving Average and the 141.00 area.

The US dollar is falling across the board. The DXY is down 0.37%, approaching 106.00. The US 10-year yield stands at 2.78% and the 30-year at 3.00%, both far from Friday’s top.

On Friday, the US dollar rallied following the release of the US employment report that came in above expectations. On Monday it lost most of those gains. Regarding data, attention now turns to the July CPI due on Wednesday.

The bias in USD/CHF is tilted to the downside. A consolidation below 0.9540 would keep...

Nvidia (NVDA) is down 6% at $178.55 after the world's premier GPU designer released preliminary second-quarter forecasts that underwhelmed expectations by a mile. The fabless chipmaker is not slated to release Q2 results until August 24, more than two weeks from now, but it probably thought it best to let the market know now that results so far were not in line with earlier projections.

Also read: Nvidia Stock Deep Dive Analysis: NVDA price target at $205 with strong revenue growth

Wall Street consensus had Q2 revenue coming in at $8.1 billion, but the new guidance puts that figure at just $6.7 billion.

“The shortfall relative to the May revenue outlook of $8.10 billion was primarily attributable to lower sell-in of gaming products reflecting a reduction in channel partner sales likely due to macroeconomic headwinds,” Nvidia said in a statement on its website. 

The semiconductor also said it was reducing prices with certain partners and...

Nvidia (NVDA) is down 6% at $178.55 after the world's premier GPU designer released preliminary second-quarter forecasts that underwhelmed expectations by a mile. The fabless chipmaker is not slated to release Q2 results until August 24, more than two weeks from now, but it probably thought it best to let the market know now that results so far were not in line with earlier projections.

Also read: Nvidia Stock Deep Dive Analysis: NVDA price target at $205 with strong revenue growth

Wall Street consensus had Q2 revenue coming in at $8.1 billion, but the new guidance puts that figure at just $6.7 billion.

“The shortfall relative to the May revenue outlook of $8.10 billion was primarily attributable to lower sell-in of gaming products reflecting a reduction in channel partner sales likely due to macroeconomic headwinds,” Nvidia said in a statement on its website. 

The semiconductor also said it was reducing prices with certain partners and...

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed on Monday that the US Consumers' one-year inflation expectations declined to 6.2% in July from 6.2% in June. The three-year inflation expectations edged lower to 3.2% from 3.6%.

Upstart releases Q2 earnings post-market on Monday, August 8. The Street has an average forecast of $0.08 in adjusted EPS on $235 million in revenue. Upstart has beaten on top and bottom lines for all six of its earnings calls as a public company. ###$UPST releases Q2 earnings post-market on Monday, August 8. Wall Street has an average forecast of $0.08 in adjusted EPS on $235M in revenue. Upstart has beaten on top and bottom lines for all six of its earnings calls as a public company http://ow.ly/QX4X50KeVaX by

Upstart releases Q2 earnings post-market on Monday, August 8. The Street has an average forecast of $0.08 in adjusted EPS on $235 million in revenue. Upstart has beaten on top and bottom lines for all six of its earnings calls as a public company.

Recent aggressive rate hikes by Central banks across the world have raised the odds of a major policy error in the making that could inevitably lead to a slowdown in economic growth combined with unstoppable inflation.

Last month, the European Central Bank finally joined the global “Rate-Hike Club”, by delivering its first interest rate increase since 2011.

And they definitely did it in style, by surprising the market with a larger-than-expected 50 basis point hike, in an attempt to play catch-up with the rest of its peers.

A week later, the U.S Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another “super-sized” 75 basis points for the second month in a row – verging on its most aggressive cycle of monetary tightening since 1981.

And then on Thursday – the Bank of England followed in the ECB’s and Federal Reserve's aggressive footsteps by...

Gold regains positive traction on Monday amid retreating US bond yields, a weaker USD. The risk-on impulse, along with hawkish Fed expectations, should cap any further gains. The market focus would remain glued to the US consumer inflation data on Wednesday.

“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lifted its benchmark repo rate by 50 bps to 5.40% from 4.90% in its Aug monetary policy meeting in a unanimous decision. The move was more aggressive than Bloomberg survey of a 25bps hike but matched our expectation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation stays within the target going forward, while supporting growth.”

“The MPC noted that despite a challenging global environment, domestic economic activity is showing signs of broader recovery, while inflationary pressures appear to be in an inflection point with ‘incipient signs of a confluence of factors’ that could lead to further softening of domestic inflationary pressures. Inflation is expected to remain above the upper tolerance band of 6% in 2Q and 3Q. With the crude oil price assumed at an average of US$105/bbl and a normal monsoon, RBI kept its inflation rate projection at 6.7% in 2022-23 (which was...

EUR/USD embarks on a decent recovery following Friday’s marked retracement at the beginning of the week.

The so far August high at 1.0293 (August 2) emerges as the magnet for bulls for the time being. Above this level, spot is expected to see its uptrend reinvigorated and could challenge the temporary 55-day SMA in the near term, today at 1.0394.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.0920.

“Singapore’s retail sales declined by -1.4% m/m, following 1.8% increase in May, breaking the streak of 3 consecutive months of m/m increase. That translated to a weaker-than-expected 14.8% y/y expansion in Jun (from 17.8% in May), against Bloomberg median forecast of a 18.3% y/y growth. That said, this was still the third consecutive month of double-digit growth. Excluding motor vehicle sales, the m/m decrease was more pronounced at -1.9%, (from 2.7% in May), translating to a +19.8% y/y increase (from 22.6% y/y in May).”

“While the growth fell short of forecast, Jun retail sales growth still added to a solid foundation for domestic demand in the 2Q22, it should be noted that according to the Department of Statistics Singapore, the y/y increase was again distorted by the low base effect of the prior year (Jun 2021) when COVID-19 restriction measures were in place, such as international travel restrictions. The weaker m/m print could also be due to more households on...

DXY comes under pressure on Monday and partially reverses Friday’s gains to the proximity of 107.00.

The continuation of the selling pressure could facilitate a deeper pullback to, initially, the August low near 105.00 (August 2).  This area of initial contention appears reinforced by the 55-day SMA.

The short-term constructive stance is expected to remain supported by the 6-month support line, today near 104.30.

Furthermore, the broader bullish view in the dollar remains in place while above the 200-day SMA at 99.81.

Plug Power is set to deliver Q2 earnings after the market closes on August 9. Wall Street expects $-0.20 EPS on $164 million in revenue. PLUG stock should benefit from tax credits in the new clean energy bill.

“Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves fell to USD132.2bn in July 2022, the lowest since June 2020 and a decrease of USD4.2bn from a 3-month high of USD136.4bn the previous month.”

“The latest reserve level was equivalent to finance 6.2 months of import or 6.1 months of imports and servicing the government’s external debt, well above the international adequacy standard of 3 months of imports.”

“Bank Indonesia (BI) maintains their view that the official reserve assets will remain adequate, supported by the stability and solid domestic economic outlook in line with several responsive policies to support long-term economic recovery.”

Plug Power is set to deliver Q2 earnings after the market closes on August 9. Wall Street expects $-0.20 EPS on $164 million in revenue. PLUG stock should benefit from tax credits in the new clean energy bill.

AUD/USD gains strong positive traction on Monday and is supported by a combination of factors. Sliding US bond yields undermine the USD and offer support to the aussie amid the risk-on impulse. Hawkish Fed expectations could limit losses for the USD ahead of the US CPI report on Wednesday.

“GBP price action last week overall pushed cable below the rising trend in place since mid-Jul and leaves spot at clear risk of a return to sub-1.20 levels.”

“Support is 1.2040 and 1.2000/05.”

“Resistance is 1.2125.”