The GBP/USD broke below 1.3800 and tumbled to 1.3763, reaching the lowest level since September 9. It remains near the lows, under pressure, amid a rally of the greenback across the board.
The US dollar is rising sharply on Thursday, supported by US economic data, including the retail sales report. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that despite wilting consumer confidence amid renewed COVID worries, retail sales shot up by rising 0.7% in August. They explain the report may nudge their Q3 PCE growth forecast slightly higher, but they do not see this as the start of another surge in goods spending.
The USD/CAD is rallying on the New York session. The pair is trading at 1.2687, up 0.50% on the back of better than expected US retails sales data and falling oil prices, which drag down the Canadian dollar at the time of writing.
The market sentiment is mixed. In Europe, major stock indices are rising. Meanwhile, the three major indices are down in the US, while the US 10-year benchmark rate soars three basis points, sitting at 1.336%.
Gerry Rice, Director of the Communications Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said on Thursday that it is important for the US government to find a debt limit solution that avoids a "counterproductive brinksmanship," per Reuters.
"The US should consider replacing debt ceiling with automatic adjustment mechanism or clear medium-term fiscal objective," Rice added.
The AUD/USD pair edged lower following the disappointing employment data from Australia during the Asian trading hours on Thursday and extended its slide in the second half of the day. As of writing, the pair was trading at its lowest level since late August at 0.7288, losing 0.64% on a daily basis.
NOK/SEK has been trending higher since early August. According to Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, the pair may trade as high as 1.01 by the end of 2021 as policymakers in Sweden will be trailing those in Norway by some margin.
- USD/JPY gained strong traction on Thursday and snapped two days of the losing streak. A strong pickup in the USD demand was seen as a key factor driving the pair higher. The momentum picked up pace following the release of mostly upbeat US macro data.
The downtrend in EUR/USD gathers extra legs and breaks below the 1.1800 yardstick on quite a convincing fashion, sending spot to levels last seen in mid-August near 1.1750, where some support seems to have turned up.
Higher yields of the US 10-year note trade on a solid note and flirt with weekly tops near 1.35% in response to better-than-expected results from the US docket earlier in the session, lending at the same time fresh legs to the buck.
Indeed, US headline Retail Sales expanded 0.7% MoM in August and 1.8% MoM when comes to the core sales. In the same note, the Philly Fed Index improved to 30.7 for the month of September, well above forecasts. In addition, Initial Claims rose by 332K WoW in the week ended on September 11.
Major equity indexes in the US opened mixed amid varying performances of major sectors on Thursday. As of writing, the S&P 500 was flat on the day at 4,480, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1% at 15,145 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was rising 0.25% at 34,900.
The data published by the US Census Bureau showed on Thursday that Retail Sales in August rose by 0.7% to $618.7 billion. This reading came in much better than the market expectation for a decline of 0.8% but doesn't seem to be having a significant impact on market sentiment.
Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the Financials Index is up 0.55% after the opening bell boosted by a more-than-3% increase witnessed in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield. On the other hand, the Materials Index is losing 0.8%.
Gold continued losing ground through the early North American session and dived to the lowest level since August 13, further below the $1760 region post-US macro releases. The US dollar bulls cheered a surprisingly strong August Retail Sales report, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the dollar-denominated commodity. According to the official data, the headline Retail Sales smashed consensus estimates and increased 0.7% MoM in August. Adding to this, sales excluding autos recorded a much stronger growth and came in at 1.8%, further underscoring consumer confidence.
Separately, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 30.7 in September from 19.4 in the previous month. This, to a larger extent, helped offset a slight disappointment from Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, which rose from a pandemic-era low of 312K to 332K during the week ended September 10. Nevertheless, the data pointed to the continuation of economic recovery and reaffirmed expectations...
- EUR/USD has been on the back foot amid robust safe-haven dollar demand. Better US data and ECB optimism provide reasons to rise. Thursday's four-hour chart is showing the pair is entering oversold conditions.
- Ethereum network observes a 31% uptick in the number of unique addresses interacting on its blockchain. Amidst a surge in on-chain activity, ETH posted over 5% daily gains on Thursday. Nearly $27.3 billion worth of ETH is pulled out of circulation and staked in the ETH2 deposit contract. With over $1.1 billion worth of Ether burned, analysts expect a "deflationary effect" on the altcoin's price.
- US Retail Sales have surged 0.8% in August, far above estimates. The inflation component of a second Fed survey shows easing price pressures. Stock markets are set to turn higher, and the dollar low on a "Goldilocks" scenario.
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- USD/CHF gained strong positive traction on Thursday amid resurgent USD demand. The USD buying picked pace in reaction to an upbeat Retail Sales report for August. A subsequent strength beyond July swing highs will set the stage for additional gains.
EUR/JPY extended the downside to the 128.60 region on Thursday on the back of the better note in the greenback, although the subsequent weakness in the Japanese currency encouraged the cross to attempt a rebound back to the proximity of 129.00.
In fact, yields of the key US 10-year reference note gather extra steam and move to daily highs near 1.34%, sustaining the rebound in the dollar and putting the single currency under extra pressure.
The firmer note in the dollar and US yields come in response to the better-than-expected results from the US docket, where headline Retail Sales expanded 0.7% MoM in August, core sales rose 1.8% inter-month and the Philly Fed improved to 30.7 in September. On the negative side, weekly Claims rose by 332K in the week ended on September 11.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is delivering her speech titled "Moving forward: The euro and the European economy in a changing world," at the HEC Talks event organized by HEC Paris and the European League for Economic Cooperation.
- GBP/USD witnessed fresh selling on Thursday amid resurgent USD demand. The USD stood tall following the release of mostly upbeat US economic data. A sustained break below the 1.3800 mark will set the stage for further losses.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported on Thursday that the headline Manufacturing Activity Index of the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey improved to 30.7 in September from 19.4 in August. This reading came in stronger than the market expectation of 18.8.
Further details of the publication revealed that the New Orders Index declined to 15.9 from 22.8, the Employment Index edged lower to 26.3 from 32.6 and the Prices Paid Index fell to 67.3 from 71.2. Finally, the Six-month Business Conditions Index dropped to 20 from 33.7.
There were 332,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending September 11, the data published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) revealed on Thursday. This reading followed the previous print of 312,000 (revised from 310,000) and came in slightly worse than the market expectation of 328,000.
Retail Sales in the US rose by 0.7% on a monthly basis to $618.7 billion in August, the data published by the US Census Bureau revealed on Thursday. This print surpassed the market expectation for a decrease of 0.8% by a wide margin.
- USD/JPY attracted some dip-buying on Thursday, though lacked any follow-through. Japan cuts economic view for the first time in four months and weighed on the JPY. A strong pickup in the USD demand extended some support ahead of the US data.
“A break above the 13-day exponential average and price resistance at 4485/98 would increase the likelihood that the corrective setback may already be over, clearing the way for a test of 4520/30 next.”
Whilst we would expect sellers at 4520/30 for now, above in due course should see a move back to the 4546 high, then 4565.”
“Whilst 4485/98 caps, the threat of a deeper corrective setback can remain with support seen at 4459/58 initially, then 4436/26.”
“Beneath 4436/26 can see a fall to what we still look to be better support from the rising 63-day average at 4399, which we look to remain a solid floor.”
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), is scheduled to deliver a speech titled "Moving forward: The euro and the European economy in a changing world," at the HEC Talks event organized by HEC Paris and the European League for Economic Cooperation.
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