“EUR/USD has been trading in a sideways range since the middle of Jul and, despite the EUR’s intraday gains, there is little sign of that range breaking down any time soon.”

“Short-term support is 1.0135/40.”

“Resistance is 1.0285/95.”

 

USD/TRY records gains for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, extending the auspicious start of the week at the same time.

The move higher in the pair comes in contrast with the prevailing selling pressure in the greenback and the generalized upbeat mood in the risk complex ahead of the release of key US inflation figures on Wednesday.

The lira, in the meantime, sheds further ground following gains recorded in the second half of last week, particularly in response to Friday’s news that the country’s FX reserves increased to 2-month highs around $9.12 billion in the week to July 29.

In the domestic calendar, the focus of attention remains on the publication of the jobless rate and the End Year CPI Forecast on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

Roblox reports earnings after the market closes on August 9. Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $-0.26 of $626 million in revenue. RBLX stock has been in an uptrend since June 16 with shares rising 100%.

Roblox reports earnings after the market closes on August 9. Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $-0.26 of $626 million in revenue. RBLX stock has been in an uptrend since June 16 with shares rising 100%.

Gold regains positive traction on Tuesday and climbs to a fresh multi-week high. The USD edges lower for the second straight day and offers support to the metal. Recession fears weigh on investors’ sentiment and benefit the safe-haven XAU/USD. Hawkish Fed expectations could cap gains ahead of the US CPI report on Wednesday.

Tomorrow's data could not only be the most important this week, but for the whole month. As we anticipated in Friday's NFP podcast, there is a lot riding on US inflation data. That is particularly the case after the Fed promised to take a data-dependant approach. And of course inflation is the most important of that data.

The issue for traders is that there are a bunch of moving parts which could all push the market to react in different directions. On the one hand, the media is likely to focus on the headline figure, because that's what's most important to consumers. But the market cares more about what the Fed will do at their next meeting, so the focus will likely be on core inflation. And the kicker? Well, both of these numbers are expected to go in opposite directions.

Polestar, jointly owned by Sweden's Volvo and China's Geely Automotive, has not had a great post-SPAC experience, but it has only been a little over six weeks. The market does not seem to know what to do with the Swedish-designed, Chinese-built automaker, and shares have dropped to support around $8.64 on three separate occasions.

Recent murmurs from the analyst community, however, have begun to make waves. First, on August 1, Deutsche Bank was the first out of the barrel with a price target of $10 and a Hold rating. The rating seemed at first to confirm the market's misgivings about yet another EV startup IPOing at a time of economic turmoil, but the price target was a good 12% above the current share price.

PSNY stock began to trend upward quite slowly. Deutsche's main point was that the backing of Volvo and Geely, which itself owns about 10 different vehicle brands including Volvo, should reduce manufacturing and supply setbacks and allow the...

EUR/USD flirts with the area of multi-day highs around 1.0250, posting gains for the second straight session on Tuesday.

The so far August high at 1.0293 (August 2) emerges as the magnet for bulls for the time being. Above this level, spot is expected to see its uptrend reinvigorated and could challenge the temporary 55-day SMA in the near term, today at 1.0386.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.0913.

Polestar, jointly owned by Sweden's Volvo and China's Geely Automotive, has not had a great post-SPAC experience, but it has only been a little over six weeks. The market does not seem to know what to do with the Swedish-designed, Chinese-built automaker, and shares have dropped to support around $8.64 on three separate occasions.

Recent murmurs from the analyst community, however, have begun to make waves. First, on August 1, Deutsche Bank was the first out of the barrel with a price target of $10 and a Hold rating. The rating seemed at first to confirm the market's misgivings about yet another EV startup IPOing at a time of economic turmoil, but the price target was a good 12% above the current share price.

PSNY stock began to trend upward quite slowly. Deutsche's main point was that the backing of Volvo and Geely, which itself owns about 10 different vehicle brands including Volvo, should reduce manufacturing and supply setbacks and allow the...

USD/JPY struggles to gain any meaningful traction and remains confined in a narrow band. The Fed-BoJ policy divergence acts as a tailwind amid a goodish pickup in the US bond yields. Recession fears offer support to the safe-haven JPY and cap gains amid modest USD weakness.

Coinbase Global will unveil Q2 earnings after Tuesday's market close. Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $-1.23 on revenue of $868 million. COIN stock has rallied 78% in the past month.

Coinbase Global will unveil Q2 earnings after Tuesday's market close. Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $-1.23 on revenue of $868 million. COIN stock has rallied 78% in the past month.

DXY extends the weekly corrective downside and briefly breaches the 106.00 neighbourhood on turnaround Tuesday.

The continuation of the selling pressure should expose a deeper pullback to, initially, the August low near 105.00 (August 2).  This area of initial contention appears reinforced by the 55-day SMA.

The short-term constructive stance is expected to remain supported by the 6-month support line, today near 104.40.

Furthermore, the broader bullish view in the dollar remains in place while above the 200-day SMA at 99.87.

The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Tuesday that Unit Labor Costs rose by 10.8% in the second quarter. This reading followed the 12.7% increase recorded in the first quarter and came in higher than the market expectation of 9.5%.

Further details of the publication revealed that the Nonfarm Productivity decreased 4.6% in the same period, slightly better than analysts' forecast for a decline of 4.7%. 

Silver oscillates in a narrow band and consolidates its recent gains to a multi-week high. The overnight breakout through the 50-DMA/50$ Fibo. confluence favours bullish traders. Any meaningful dips could now be seen as a buying opportunity and remain short-lived.

Citing two sources familiar with the operation, Reuters reported on Tuesday that Russia suspended oil exports via the southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline from early August due to issues relating to transit fees.

"According to the sources, the payment from Russia's pipeline monopoly Transneft to Ukraine's pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta did not go through," Reuters explained.

“Last week was an eventful one, one filled with hawkish Fed comments that were backed up by strong US data. Yet the dollar’s bounce has already run out of steam.” 

“For now, we are maintaining our strong dollar call and are chalking up recent price action to the start of the summer doldrums.”

“Tomorrow’s CPI data could shake things up, but we don’t see much risk of the readings impacting Fed policy.” 

 

EUR/JPY keeps pushing higher and already surpasses the 138.00 mark on Tuesday, up for the sixth consecutive session.

Considering the ongoing price action, further upside in the cross appears likely for the time being. That said, the next temporary target aligns at the 55-day SMAs, today at 139.57. If the cross clears the latter, the door could then open to a probable visit to the July top at 142.32 (July 21).

While above the 200-day SMA at 133.82, the outlook for the cross is expected to remain constructive.

USD/CHF edges lower for the second successive day and drops to a one-week low on Tuesday. A sharp fall in inflation expectations weighs on the greenback and exerts downward pressure. Hawkish Fed expectations to lend support to the USD and limit losses amid a positive risk tone.

“Unless demand picks up noticeably in China or more fuel exports are allowed, refineries are hardly likely to want to import more crude oil. 

“If this does not change in the remaining months of the year, Chinese crude oil imports are set to decrease for the second year in a row, resulting in the lowest annual import volume since 2018.”

“For now, the days when China served as the engine of global oil demand are a thing of the past. And this will do nothing to ease concerns about demand on the oil market.”

 

Gold Price trades listlessly amid investors' caution ahead of US inflation. The US dollar weakness offsets the rebound in Treasury yields. XAUUSD bulls remain hopeful so long as the 50 DMA holds fort.

GBP/USD regains traction on Tuesday amid some USD selling for the second straight day. A generally positive risk tone seems to be a key factor weighing on the safe-haven greenback. The BoE’s bleak economic outlook could act as a headwind for the GBP and cap the upside.

GBP/USD has recovered above 1.2100 in the European morning. British pound could hold its ground in case market mood improves. Wednesday's US inflation data will be the next significant catalyst for the pair.

“Second-quarter Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and the NFIB Business Optimism Index will also be featured in the US economic docket. In case safe-haven flows return on disappointing prints, safe-haven flows could provide a boost to the dollar and weigh on GBP/USD.”

“1.2150 (50-period SMA on the four-hour chart) aligns as first resistance ahead of 1.2175 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend). In case GBP/USD breaks above the latter, it could stretch higher toward 1.2200 (psychological level, static level).”

“On the downside, sellers could show interest if the pair falls back below 1.2100 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). In that case, additional losses toward 1.2070 (200-period SMA) and 1.2050 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) could be witnessed.”