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April 13, 2021

1.      Warm greetings from Washington and good evening to you in Asia. It’s a pleasure to be with you and to give you some of the highlights of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia Pacific. 

2.      The pandemic has resulted in unprecedented output losses in the Asia-Pacific region. Losses varied widely across economies as a function of the stringency and effectiveness of containment policies; dependence on tourism and contact-intensive services; and the degree of policy support. Some of the Pacific Island countries have been among the worst affected.

3.      Although a recovery is now underway, and the pandemic is receding in some countries, elsewhere, second or third waves of infections are raging, notably in India and some of the ASEAN economies. While exports and manufacturing generally have held up due to surging global demand for pandemic-related supplies, services are...

April 13, 2021

1.      Warm greetings from Washington and good evening to you in Asia. It’s a pleasure to be with you and to give you some of the highlights of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia Pacific. 

2.      The pandemic has resulted in unprecedented output losses in the Asia-Pacific region. Losses varied widely across economies as a function of the stringency and effectiveness of containment policies; dependence on tourism and contact-intensive services; and the degree of policy support. Some of the Pacific Island countries have been among the worst affected.

3.      Although a recovery is now underway, and the pandemic is receding in some countries, elsewhere, second or third waves of infections are raging, notably in India and some of the ASEAN economies. While exports and manufacturing generally have held up due to surging global demand for pandemic-related supplies, services are...

April 13, 2021

1.      Warm greetings from Washington and good evening to you in Asia. It’s a pleasure to be with you and to give you some of the highlights of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia Pacific. 

2.      The pandemic has resulted in unprecedented output losses in the Asia-Pacific region. Losses varied widely across economies as a function of the stringency and effectiveness of containment policies; dependence on tourism and contact-intensive services; and the degree of policy support. Some of the Pacific Island countries have been among the worst affected.

3.      Although a recovery is now underway, and the pandemic is receding in some countries, elsewhere, second or third waves of infections are raging, notably in India and some of the ASEAN economies. While exports and manufacturing generally have held up due to surging global demand for pandemic-related supplies, services are...

by Jonathan D. Ostry

In some Asia-Pacific countries, the unpleasant memory of the pandemic is receding; elsewhere, second or third waves of infections are raging. A recovery is underway, but the regional averages obscure wide differences within and across countries.

by Jonathan D. Ostry

In some Asia-Pacific countries, the unpleasant memory of the pandemic is receding; elsewhere, second or third waves of infections are raging. A recovery is underway, but the regional averages obscure wide differences within and across countries.

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Global prospects remain highly uncertain one year into the pandemic. New virus mutations and the accumulating human toll raise concerns, even as growing vaccine coverage lifts sentiment. Economic recoveries are diverging across countries and sectors, reflecting variation in pandemic-induced disruptions and the extent of policy support. The outlook depends not just on the outcome of the battle between the virus and vaccines—it also hinges on how effectively economic policies deployed under high uncertainty can limit lasting damage from this unprecedented crisis.

Global growth is projected at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022. The projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021, and continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility. High uncertainty surrounds this...

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By Gita Gopinath

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It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community hundreds of millions of people are being vaccinated and this is expected to power recoveries in many countries later this year. Economies also continue to adapt to new ways of working despite reduced mobility, leading to a stronger-than-anticipated rebound across regions. Additional fiscal support in large economies, particularly the United States, has further improved the outlook.

By Gita Gopinath

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It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community hundreds of millions of people are being vaccinated and this is expected to power recoveries in many countries later this year. Economies also continue to adapt to new ways of working despite reduced mobility, leading to a stronger-than-anticipated rebound across regions. Additional fiscal support in large economies, particularly the United States, has further improved the outlook.

From early on in the pandemic, the IMF’s advice to its members has been, “spend what you need, but keep the receipts.” With support from the Fund, countries have responded to the COVID emergency with a range of programs to address health, social, and economic impacts. Strengthened transparency and accountability arrangements were rapidly put in place, even as countries introduced innovations to enable expedited spending and delivery of services while confronting the pandemic. From early on in the pandemic, the IMF’s advice to its members has been, “spend what you need, but keep the receipts.” 

The receipts are now coming in—information is now available on how money has been utilized, revealing binding governance constraints on effective public spending and service delivery and which innovations have proven to boost effectiveness. As this process gains speed, government officials will be challenged to learn from the positive adaptations that emerged...

Abundant liquidity support through loans, credit guarantees, and moratoria on debt payments have protected many small and medium enterprises from the immediate risk of bankruptcy. But liquidity support cannot address solvency problems. As firms accumulate losses and borrow to keep carrying on, they risk becoming insolvent—saddled with debt well over their ability to repay.

New IMF staff research quantifies this solvency risk, and the findings are concerning. The pandemic is projected to boost the share of insolvent small and medium enterprises from 10 percent to 16 percent in 2021 across 20 mostly advanced economies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. The increase would be on a magnitude similar to the rise in liquidations in the 5 years after the 2008 global financial crisis, but it would take place over a much shorter period of time. Projected insolvencies put about 20 million jobs at risk (i.e., over 10 percent of workers employed by small and medium...

April 12, 2021

Excellencies, Mr. Secretary General. Thank you for keeping up momentum on this important agenda.

The global economic outlook is improving, but recovery prospects are diverging dangerously . We expect global growth of 6 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022, but many countries and regions are projected to do far worse than this.

We need to give everyone a fair shot. This is our shared responsibility, and it has three important aspects that are intimately linked to the Financing for Development agenda: first, equal access to vaccines for people in all countries; second, continued support to low income and developing countries; and third, building a better tomorrow.

At the IMF, we strongly believe that vaccine policy is the most important weapon in our economic arsenal today. Countries should not restrict their trade, and they should donate their surplus vaccines to other nations. Developing economies, for their part,...

The Spring Meetings will take place virtually on April 5-11, 2021. Tune in on our website and in social media to stay on top of the discussions, and watch events on the IMF Live page. #IMFMeetings.

Schedule

You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

From early on in the pandemic, the IMF’s advice to its members has been, “spend what you need, but keep the receipts.” With support from the Fund, countries have responded to the COVID emergency with a range of programs to address health, social, and economic impacts. Strengthened transparency and accountability arrangements were rapidly put in place, even as countries introduced innovations to enable expedited spending and delivery of services while confronting the pandemic. From early on in the pandemic, the IMF’s advice to its members has been, “spend what you need, but keep the receipts.” 

The receipts are now coming in—information is now available on how money has been utilized, revealing binding governance constraints on effective public spending and service delivery and which innovations have proven to boost effectiveness. As this process gains speed, government officials will be challenged to learn from the positive adaptations...

April 2021

Full Report

A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia region, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. The outlook will vary significantly across countries, depending on the pandemic’s path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions. Public gross financing needs in most emerging markets in the region are expected to remain elevated in 2021–22, with downside risks in the event of tighter global financial conditions and/or if fiscal consolidation is delayed due to weaker-than-expected recovery. 2021 will be the year of policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience. At the same time, policymakers must not lose sight of the transformational...