After establishing a low for the year at 9.900 in April, EUR/NOK began a rising trend. While the ascending trendline was broken at the end of August, there is still some upward momentum. This is indicated by the 55-day and the 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) maintaining a positive gradient.

Historically, the EUR/NOK does not tend to trade between the 55-day SMA and the 100-day SMA for extended periods. It should be noted here that past performance is not indicative of future results. A break above the 55-day SMA, currently at 10.368, may indicate a resumption of the uptrend. A break below the 100-day SMA, presently at 10.244, might show a return to range trading.

On the topside, there may be some resistance at the break-down pivot point of 10.353 and then further higher at the descending trendline resistance of 10.570. Additional resistance could be seen at the most recent previous highs of 10.632 and 10.703 respectively.

To the downside, some...

The AUD/JPY has stalled on its recent rally as it failed to break through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 82.03 last week. That level is now a potential resistance point as it failed again 2 days later to go higher.

Above that level is further possible resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 82.79, calculated from the May high of 85.81 to the August low at 77.90. This retracement level closely coincides with a previous high at 82.82. Further resistance may lie at the previous highs of 84.26 and 85.81.

Immediate support may be provided at the 21-day SMA of 80.34 and at the previous low of 77.90.

Chart created in TradingView

The AUD/NZD remains in a descending channel and there are several trendlines with a negative gradient. In late August, the cross made a new low for the year when it broke through the previous low of 1.0418.

Trendline support, currently at 1.0310, may lend some potential for a turn higher, and a...

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• The S&P 500 bounces off key trendline support once again

• The US Dollar is stuck for direction

• Bitcoin stagnates around $45,000 after being rejected above $50,000

WHERE IS THE DOLLAR HEADING?

US equities have come under a bit of pressure recently which has played in nicely with the recent trend in the S&P 500, which has been bouncing off a key trendline support for the past year. The pullbacks towards the trendline have been narrowing as the trend has progressed, from almost 9% back in October 2020 to under 2% this past week, playing into a neat ascending channel, which is showing that the range is narrowing slowly.

We also looked at the Apple chart as the company is planned to unveil its latest iPhone today, especially as some investors view Apple stick as cheap given their dominance in the market and their fundamental drivers. But the stock is at its most expensive relative to expected growth in the coming year which may cause...

US stocks continue to trade on their back foot, holding on to last week’s sell-off as concerns about Chinese property lender Evergrande came into the equation. Last week saw four consecutive days of selling in S&P 500 futures, with prices putting in a bounce yesterday, leading into this morning’s inflation data.

And, for the first time since October of last year, headline CPI printed below the expectation for the monthly read, with MoM inflation printing at .3% versus the expected .4%. On an annualized basis, however, the expectation was matched at 5.3% but, still, this represents a moderation from last month’s 5.4%, giving a bit more credence to the Fed’s take that inflation is transitory, to some degree.

USD/JPY struggles to extend the recent series of higher highs and lows as the US CPI slows for the first time in 2021, with the headline reading for inflation narrowing to 5.3% from 5.4% annum in July.

At the same time, the core CPI slipped to 4.0% from 4.3% during the same period to mark the lowest reading since May, but the fresh data prints may encourage the Federal Reserve to gradually scale back monetary support as it reinforces the central bank’s expectation for a transitory rise in inflation.

As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may alter the forward guidance at its next interest rate decision on September 22 as Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledgedthat the central bank could shift gears“if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated,” and it remains to be seen if Fed officials will implement material changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as the committee warns that “rising COVID-19 cases associated with the spread of the...

DATA RECAP: The headline rate rose 0.3% on the month below expectations of 0.4%, which saw the yearly rate print at 5.3%, matching estimates. The core reading rose 0.1% vs 0.3% expected, while the yearly rate also fell short of expectations at 4% vs 4.2%. Transitory factors that have been a focal point for much of the increase have begun to roll over as used cars saw a slight decrease of 1.5%, marking the biggest monthly drop since November 2016. Elsewhere, stick components such as shelter costs rose a marginal 0.2%. As such, this reinforces the Federal Reserves outlook that the inflation spike is expected to be transitory. Alongside this, with ISM Mfg. and Non-Mfg prices paid (Figure 1.) heading lower, risks to inflation is tilted to the downside.

Source: BLS

How to Trade After a News Release

MARKET REACTION: The USD came under pressure across the board. Similarly, US yields have also dipped in the wake of the inflation report, while gold prices saw a slight...

Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Interpreting charts can be intimidating for novice traders, so understanding basic technical analysis is essential. This article reveals popular types of technical analysis charts used in forex trading, outlining the foundations and uses of these chart types.

NZD/USD extends the rebound from the fresh yearly low (0.6805) as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) warns of a looming shift in monetary policy, but headlines coming out of the Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium appear to be dragging on the exchange rate as Federal Reserve officials show a greater willingness to scale back monetary support.

USD/JPY is consolidating above 110.0 this morning despite recent weakness in the US Dollar as the Japanese Yen is struggling to find support as Covid-19 spreads rapidly across Japan. I have been keeping my eye on the pair for a while now as I find the technical setup very appealing, with the final leg of a symmetrical pattern underway, which could see USD/JPY break below 108.50 in the next few weeks.

USD/JPY Daily chart

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Gold and Silver’s recent whipsaw price action has cast a shadow of doubt over further upside prior to the Jackson Hole Symposium, a key catalyst for the imminent move.

With focus on inflation and an overheated economy, the virtual summit places Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the center of risk sentiment as investors continue to search for clues of tapering.

Although the Jackson Hole Symposium starts today, major risk events on tomorrow’s economic calendar, combined with Powell’s speech could see increased volatility for Gold and the US Dollar throughout Friday’s trading session.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

Although US economic data has provided sufficient evidence of a swift economic recovery, the spread of the Delta variant and poorer than expected recent retail sales data has dampened sentiment, providing a stumbling block for the Federal Reserve who has the tough task of juggling between two key metrics, unemployment and inflation.

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Risk management is at the core of any good trading plan, without having a sound set of principles to follow a trader is doomed to fail. We outline rules and factors to consider when customizing a risk management game-plan right for you.

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Risk management is one of the most important aspects to successful trading, but far too often it’s overlooked. Job #1 for a trader is to always keep yourself in the game. A sound strategy and the discipline to follow it will go long way towards ensuring you stick around.

If you are in the learning stage, your objective is to keep losses very small until you figure out what you are doing from an analytical and strategy standpoint. Adhering to sound risk parameters early-on will go a long way towards building a foundation for later on.

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Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Interpreting charts can be intimidating for novice traders, so understanding basic technical analysis is essential. This article reveals popular types of technical analysis charts used in forex trading, outlining the foundations and uses of these chart types.

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The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Find out about the history of the Fed, its influence on USD and how to trade Fed monetary policy decisions.

Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. These concepts will be explored in this article to shed some light on the mechanics of slippage in forex, as well as how traders can mitigate its adverse effects.

Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Interpreting charts can be intimidating for novice traders, so understanding basic technical analysis is essential. This article reveals popular types of technical analysis charts used in forex trading, outlining the foundations and uses of these chart types.

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According to IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), retail traders appear to be increasingly betting that the Japanese Yen could appreciate against currencies such as the US Dollar and Euro. IGCS can at times be a contrarian indicator. If this trend in positioning continues, the Yen could be at risk instead. To learn more, check out this week’s recording of my webinar above.

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 48% of retail investors are net-long USD/JPY. Upside exposure has decreased by 8.31% and 31.11% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, the fact that traders are net-short hints prices may keep rising. Recent shifts in positioning are further underscoring this outlook.

The Triple Moving Average (TMA) is often seen as a powerful momentum signal when it turns on. There are specific conditions required for the TMA to do so and so it does not give a signal very often. I am using 3 simple moving averages on the chart below.

The first condition is order. For a bullish signal, the asset price must be above the short term moving average (MA), which must also be above the medium term MA, which should also be above the long term MA. The second condition is that the gradient of all 3 moving averages must have a positive slope. We saw this bullish signal turn on for AUD/USD on November 12th, 2020.

For a sell signal, the reverse of all these conditions must be met. Currently, AUD/USD has not met these conditions, but is very close. The 200-day moving average gradient is yet to turn negative and the spot price needs to remain below the short term moving average.

In the near term, we have resistance at 0.7290 as it was the break-down...