1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.

As part of the new home sales report released this morning, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices. From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2021 was $390,500. The average sales price was $446,000." The following graph shows the median and average new home prices. Click on graph for larger image. During the housing bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales.  When housing started to recovery - with limited finished lots in recovering areas - builders moved to higher price points to maximize profits.

New home sales for July were reported at 708,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised up, combined. This was somewhat above consensus expectations for July, but still down 27.2% year-over-year - since sales increased sharply following the early months of the pandemic.  The new home sales rate is now slightly below the pre-pandemic level of around 740 thousand (the three months previous to pandemic). 

Sales of new single?family houses in July 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.0 percent above the revised June rate of 701,000, but is 27.2 percent below the July 2020 estimate of 972,000. emphasis added

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. For New York State: Closed sales in July 2021 were 13,765, up 32.6% from 10,384 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 44,025, down 19.5% from 54,700 in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 1.4% from last month, and up 13.5% from the record low in March 2021.

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. For the South Florida area: Closed sales (house and condos) in July 2021 were 11,792, up 21.8% from 9,685 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 23,724, down 45.6% from 43,586 in July 2020. Inventory in July was down 7.4% from last month and was at a record low.

1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 3.26% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.25% as of August 15, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 1.66%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 3.92%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 10 basis points to 7.15%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers increased 2 basis points to 3.48%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 1 basis point to 3.35%. “The share of loans in forbearance was little changed, as both new requests and exits were at a slower pace compared to the prior week. In fact,...

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Also, the delay in the 2020 buying season pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels over the winter.   This means there are going to be some difficult comparisons in the second half of 2021!

A couple of interesting points from 2019:   In 2019, inventory bottomed at 814 thousand in February (so inventory is still very low compared to normal levels).   And, in 2019, inventory peaked at 972 thousand in early August (an increase of about 19% from the low).   So inventory is less than half of what we'd normally expect, however inventory has increased (as a percentage) more than normal.

Existing-home sales rose in July, marking two consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions recorded modest month-over-month gains, and the fourth remained level. Figures varied from a year-over-year perspective as two regions saw gains, one witnessed a decline and one was unchanged. Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, grew 2.0% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million in July. Sales inched up year-over-year, increasing 1.5% from a year ago (5.90 million in July 2020). ... Total housing inventory at the end of July totaled 1.32 million units, up 7.3% from June's supply and down 12.0% from one year ago (1.50 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the present sales pace, up slightly from the 2.5-month figure recorded in June but down from 3.1 months in July 2020. emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. The 7-day average is down 23.3% from the same day in 2019 (76.7% of 2019).  (Dashed line) There was a slow increase from the bottom starting in May 2020 - and then TSA data picked up in 2021 - but the dashed line was moving sideways, and has moved down recently.

1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.

The is only the second local market that I track that saw a year-over-year increase in active inventory in July. Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. Here is a summary post for many markets: Existing Home Inventory in July: Local Markets For for the Columbus, Ohio area: Closed sales in July 2021 were 3,630, up 2.7% from 3,536 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 3,079, up 4.2% from 2,955 in July 2020. Months of Supply was 1.0 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.1 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 27.0% from last month, and up 87.9% from the all time low in March 2021.

Rates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn't to say rates perfectly flat--simply that the prevailing momentum has been sideways for the past few weeks. Since mortgage rates only change once or twice a day, we can use 10yr Treasury yields to see finer detail. This entire week took place in the fairly narrow range of 1.29 to 1.21, and it ended with yields precisely in the middle at 1.25%. ... What does all this mean in plain English? Rates are low--much lower than most anyone expected at this point in the year. The key reason is "delta" and Fed's patient approach to changing rate-friendly policies. The lingering concerns about the nature of the post-covid economy also make the list. [30 year fixed 2.93%] emphasis added

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. Here is a summary post for many markets: Existing Home Inventory in July: Local Markets For for the entire state Indiana: Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,585, down 6.5% from 10,256 in July 2020. Active Listings in July 2021 were 8,874, down 24.6% from 11,762 in July 2020. Months of Supply was 1.1 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.6 Months in July 2020. Inventory in July was up 14.6% from last month, and up 50.5% from the all time low in March 2021.

1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Goal met.