RT @mikesimonsen: Full details in this week's video. Are we at the absolute peak of buyer demand right now? 5/5 https://t.co/59cSB9kh…
Bill McBride Mon 22 Mar 2021 20:37

RT @bencasselman: “Will you hike if yields rise?” “We will not hike if yields rise. We will not catch you by surprise. We will not hike on…
Bill McBride Wed 17 Mar 2021 20:18

Goldman on FOMC: "We continue to expect tapering to begin in early 2022 and the fed funds rate to remain unchanged until the first half of 2024."
Bill McBride Wed 17 Mar 2021 19:58

Goldman: "Following today’s data, we boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 1.5pp to +7.5% (qoq ar) and lowered our Q2 GDP growth forecast by the same amount (to +9.5%)."
Bill McBride Tue 16 Mar 2021 15:46

Goldman: "We expect that the first hints at tapering will come only in the second half of this year, that tapering will not begin until Q4 or more likely 2022Q1, that the FOMC will taper gradually over the course of about a year, and that it will then pause to take stock ..."
Bill McBride Mon 15 Mar 2021 00:34

Goldman “We expect that at least two-thirds of the state and local jobs lost over the last year will return by September, boosting payrolls by 900k by the end of Q3.”
Bill McBride Fri 12 Mar 2021 22:13

On Fannie Mae change, I was correct on the LLPA increases, but that isn't the mortgage increase (thanks for the correction).
Bill McBride Fri 12 Mar 2021 04:32

For investment properties, the LLPA was 2.125% below 75% LTV, 3.375 below 80%, and 4.125% above. Now it looks like 3.625% below 75%, increasing to 5.825% to 85%. No loans about 85% LTV 2/2
Bill McBride Fri 12 Mar 2021 04:12

On Fannie Mae's new guidelines for 2nd homes and investment properties. The Loan-Level Price Adjustment (LLPA) for 2nd homes was 0% with less than 85% LTV, and 0.25% with >85%. Now it looks like LLPAs will be 2.25% and 2.50%. The mortgage rate jumps from 3.5% to 5.5% 1/2
Bill McBride Fri 12 Mar 2021 04:02

RT @Claudia_Sahm: asked on TV about biggest risk from new relief package. me: it’s not inflation. it’s reopening before it’s safe. we’re st…
Bill McBride Thu 11 Mar 2021 01:56

Watch out for "scary" CPI posts over the next few months. YoY CPI will pickup partly because we saw deflation during March, April and May last year. CPI, All Items, 1982-84=100 Jan '20 258.687 Feb '20 258.824 Mar '20 257.989 Apr '20 256.192 May '20 255.942 Jun '20 257.282
Bill McBride Tue 09 Mar 2021 22:09

"Scariest Job Chart" Worst of Great Recession: Down 6.29% Now: Down 6.21% https://t.co/h60rokHaln
Bill McBride Sat 06 Mar 2021 15:26

Goldman: " We left our February nonfarm payroll forecast unchanged at +225k ahead of tomorrow’s release"
Bill McBride Thu 04 Mar 2021 16:43

RT @mikesimonsen: Available inventory drops again this week. We're at 325,000 single family homes on the market. No trough in site yet. We'…
Bill McBride Mon 01 Mar 2021 23:00

Merrill on February NFP: "Hiring likely saw a modest pickup in February with nonfarm payroll growth of 225k versus 49k previously. The unemployment rate should hold at 6.3% amid increased participation."
Bill McBride Fri 26 Feb 2021 15:12

Merrill: "Higher rates are a headwind for housing ... we expect declining affordability to be a modest to moderate headwind for housing going forward, which will result in a cooling off rather than a crash in the hot existing home market"
Bill McBride Fri 26 Feb 2021 15:07

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX REPORTS 10.4% ANNUAL HOME PRICE GAIN TO END 2020
Bill McBride Tue 23 Feb 2021 14:04

Even in good markets - there is a weird dynamic I've seen many times. With little inventory, people buy like crazy - but once there are a few more home to choose from - they take their time. Of course inventory is absurdly low now - just looking ahead. 3/3
Bill McBride Fri 19 Feb 2021 20:25

Mortgage rates will likely increase (30 year fixed already slightly over 3.0%, up from a low of 2.75%). Inventory will likely increase as people are more willing to show their homes (once pandemic ends). People won't avoid density (multi-family, buy 2nd homes) 2/
Bill McBride Fri 19 Feb 2021 20:20

Housing was a key support during the pandemic, but as the pandemic ends (fingers crossed), it is possible the best case scenarios for the economy are the worst for housing. Demographics will stay favorable, but ... 1/
Bill McBride Fri 19 Feb 2021 20:20

RT @jimtankersley: Schumer in a letter to senators just now: "the Senate is on track to send a robust $1.9 trillion package to the presiden…
Bill McBride Fri 19 Feb 2021 18:05

RT @RickPalaciosJr: Went back and found this tweet from Nov-20. Clearly other forecasters are now on board for strong home price appreciati…
Bill McBride Mon 15 Feb 2021 23:22

It's all about the inventory.
Bill McBride Sun 14 Feb 2021 15:05

RT @calculatedrisk: Looking forward to this speech next Wednesday: 2:00 p.m. Speech -- Chair Jerome H. Powell, "State of the U.S. Labor Ma…
Bill McBride Tue 09 Feb 2021 23:35

RT @JimPethokoukis: GOLDMAN SACHS on why it doesn't think the Biden plan is "too much of a good thing": https://t.co/93RLZnDGlR
Bill McBride Tue 09 Feb 2021 17:04