• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 262,000 Link https://t.co/rJMbR2xG9o
    Bill McBride Thu 11 Aug 2022 12:39
    In the week ending August 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 262,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 12,000 from 260,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 252,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 7,250 from 254,750 to 247,500. emphasis added
  • Homebuyers Hit Brakes in July, Sellers Hold Back Link Here is a table of closed sales https://t.co/1u8FoIyTJo
    Bill McBride Wed 10 Aug 2022 17:18

    The big story for July existing home sales is the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story is that new listings are down YoY in July. Of course, active listings are up sharply.

    This is the second look at local markets in July. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

    We are seeing a significant change in inventory, but a decline in new listings. Most of the increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

    From the Houston Association of REALTORS®: Houston Housing Gets Another Tap on the Brakes in July

  • Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in July Link https://t.co/cJm7weTvSz
    Bill McBride Wed 10 Aug 2022 15:17

    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in July. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Motor Fuel" decreased at a 61% annualized rate in July!

  • BofA: "We generally take this print to endorse our Econ team's call for a 50bps rate hike in September ... This morning's data confirms that we have seen a peak in inflation and endorses our view that peak Fed hawkishness is likely behind us."
    Bill McBride Wed 10 Aug 2022 14:22
  • Early Look at 2023 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base Link CPI-W was up 9.1% YoY in July - we need the data for July, August and September - my early guess is COLA will probably be around 8.5% to 9.0% this year ... https://t.co/0xvIVC5bKr
    Bill McBride Wed 10 Aug 2022 14:17
    The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 9.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 292.219 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
  • BLS: CPI Unchanged in July; Core CPI increased 0.3% Link The consensus was for 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.5% increase in core CPI. Both were below expectations.
    Bill McBride Wed 10 Aug 2022 12:36
    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The gasoline index fell 7.7 percent in July and offset increases in the food and shelter indexes, resulting in the all items index being unchanged over the month. The energy index fell 4.6 percent over the month as the indexes for gasoline and natural gas declined, but the index for electricity increased. The food index continued to rise, increasing 1.1 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 1.3 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, a smaller increase than in April, May, or June. The indexes for shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, and recreation were among those that...
  • MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey Link According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 19% year-over-year unadjusted. https://t.co/58JGoSof0t
    Bill McBride Wed 10 Aug 2022 12:16
    Mortgage applications increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 5, 2022. ... The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week and was 82 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates remained volatile last week – after drops in the previous two weeks, mortgage rates ended up rising four basis points. Mortgage applications were relatively flat, with a decline in purchase activity offset by an increase in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market continues to experience a slowdown, despite the strong job market....
  • Loandepot exits wholesale channel Link "Company makes strategic decision to exit wholesale business."
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 21:53
    Revenue of $308.6 million, and diluted loss per share of $0.66, driven principally by lower origination volumes and profit margins, partially offset by higher servicing revenues. Expenses decreased by $45.6 million, or 8%, on pace to achieve targeted annualized expense savings of $375 million to $400 million during second half of 2022. Recorded $46.7 million in charges for impairment of goodwill, real estate and other intangible assets, as well as $6.0 million of severance, professional fees and other expenses related to Vision 2025. Strong balance sheet with unrestricted cash and equivalents totaling $954.9 million at June 30, 2022. Servicing portfolio grew to $155.2 billion, growing in-house servicing from 67% to 88% of UPB. Company makes strategic decision to exit wholesale business.
  • Vehicle Sales: Fleet Turnover Ratio and the Inflation Impact Link Usually, vehicle sales are impacted too by Fed policy, but probably not this time since sales are so low due to the supply constraints. https://t.co/XZ8U6ZqqHA
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 19:18
    And in April 2020, sales collapsed due to the onset of the pandemic. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. The estimated ratio for July is close to 21 years - well above the normal level. Note: in 2009, I argued the turnover ratio would "probably decline to 15 or so eventually" and that happened - and will likely happen again. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is current estimated sales rate. The current sales rate is still low mostly due to pandemic related supply constraints. Light vehicle sales were at a 13.35 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in July. I expect vehicle sales to increase over the next couple of years.
  • A few more local markets for Existing home sales in July. Sales declines of over 30% YoY in San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Monterey, Sonoma, Solano, Marin, and Napa. Reno down 34% YoY Note: these are NSA and there was one less selling day in July 2022 compared to July 2021.
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 17:00
  • Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate increases in July Link https://t.co/AKMSuHZPOJ
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 15:35
    The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) increased 2.9% in July to 178.7 from the revised June figure of 173.6. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning. The index is shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In July, the commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 5.5%, while the institutional component fell 2.0%. Commercial planning in July was led by an increase in data center, office and warehouse projects, while fewer education and healthcare projects drove the institutional component lower. Compared to July 2021, the Momentum Index was 8%. The commercial component was 15% higher, while the institutional component was 3% lower than a year ago.July 2021. emphasis added
  • Source: Link
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 15:35
  • Detached Sales down 41% YoY Months Inventory up 71% https://t.co/ikVki4PB7f
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 15:30
  • Orange County, CA: 1/2 Attached Sales down 36% YoY Inventory up 67% YoY https://t.co/ugUBQ9SNQd
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 15:30
  • Some history ... Las Vegas July Active Inventory 2019: 9,661 2020: 6,387 2021: 3,669 2022: 8,949 Las Vegas July Closed Sales: 2019: 3,883 2020: 4,025 2021: 4,225 2022: 2,672
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 13:09
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July Link Las Vegas sales off 37% YoY. Inventory up 144% YoY. https://t.co/H4iWhDNtqB
    Bill McBride Tue 09 Aug 2022 12:24

    This is the first look at local markets in July. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

    We are seeing a significant change in inventory, but no pickup in new listings. Most of the increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

    Here are a few local comments …

    From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

  • Santa Clara real estate in July: Sales off 45% year-over-year Inventory up only 4% YoY I'll post data for several markets tomorrow morning. Sorry for the delay - I was waiting for Las Vegas to be released Tuesday AM (especially inventory numbers in Vegas). Link
    Bill McBride Mon 08 Aug 2022 22:45
    San Diego real estate in July: Sales off 43% year-over-year Inventory up 22% YoY I'll have several local market data in the newsletter on Monday - sales were way off in July.
  • RT @RickPalaciosJr: Yes, new home prices fell in recent months. However, the story is very different region by region. https://t.co/PjSLow2…
    Bill McBride Mon 08 Aug 2022 18:14
  • RT @mikesimonsen: Will the real estate market see a soft landing? It's starting to look like that! Inventory growth is slowing 544,000 si…
    Bill McBride Mon 08 Aug 2022 18:14
  • Housing Inventory Growth Has Slowed in Recent Weeks Link https://t.co/c8DNqAFO4A
    Bill McBride Mon 08 Aug 2022 16:39

    Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change in inventory according to Realtor.com:

    Inventory is up 30.4% YoY, but the “rate of improvement has stalled”.

    And this morning Altos Research released inventory data as of August 5th. Inventory was at 544 thousand (7-day average); 24% above the peak in 2021 of 437 thousand on September 3, 2021.

    Here is a graph of inventory from Altos. Inventory growth has slowed.

    The third graph uses the Altos inventory data and shows the trend comparing to the same week in 2020 and 2019. The dotted red line is the recent trend compared to 2020 - and at the current pace, inventory will be up compared to 2020 in September. The dashed grey line is comparing to 2019, and based on the current trend, it is possible inventory will be back to 2019 levels in the first half of 2023. However, if inventory growth stalls, then it might take much longer to reach normal inventory levels.

    Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was...

  • August 8th Update: Housing Inventory Increases Slow Link https://t.co/mJmpv4lCNT
    Bill McBride Mon 08 Aug 2022 12:53
    Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 126% since then.  Altos reports inventory is up 32.1% year-over-year and is now 24.4% above the peak last year.
  • Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy Link Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019 https://t.co/GKv3CjHNFK
    Bill McBride Mon 08 Aug 2022 12:17

    These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.  Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices.

  • AAR: July Rail Carloads Up Slightly Year-over-year, Intermodal Down Link https://t.co/Rh8WlTN87F
    Bill McBride Sun 07 Aug 2022 12:58
    Rail traffic in July was evenly balanced between commodities with carload gains and those with declines. As such, it doesn’t provide definitive evidence regarding the state of the overall economy. Moreover, the traffic category historically most highly correlated with GDP is “industrial products,” a combination of seven other categories. Carloads of industrial products have fallen for four straight months, but the declines have all been extremely small. emphasis added
  • Goldman: "Following the stronger-than-expected retail sales report, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 1pp at +4.5% (qoq ar)."
    Bill McBride Thu 16 Sep 2021 15:56
  • Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 13.6% Compared to Same Week in 2019 Link The comparison to 2019 was difficult this week due to the timing of Labor Day. https://t.co/pVdoN42Cfs
    Bill McBride Thu 16 Sep 2021 15:16
    The comparison to 2019 was difficult this week due to the timing of Labor Day.  Last week the occupancy rate was unchanged year-over-year.  If we average the last two weeks, occupancy is down about 7% compared to the same two weeks in 2019.
Next
S&P500
VIX
Eurostoxx50
FTSE100
Nikkei 225
TNX (UST10y)
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
BTCUSD
Gold spot
Brent
Copper
Last update . Delayed by 15 mins. Prices from Yahoo!

  • Top 50 publishers (last 24 hours)