Thank you for the invitation to address this year's Australian Payments Network Summit. This summit has become an important fixture on the Australian payments calendar and this is the third time I have had the privilege of joining you.
A recurring theme across these summits has been the need to improve customer outcomes. I am very pleased to see that this focus has been continued at this year's summit. The focus on customer outcomes aligns very closely with the focus of the Payments System Board. The Board wants to see a payments system that is innovative, dynamic, secure, competitive, and that serves the needs of all Australians.
Increasingly, this means that the payments system needs to support Australia's digital economy. With the digital economy being an important key to Australia's future economic prosperity, we need a payments system that is fit for purpose. We will only fully capitalise on the fantastic opportunities out there if we have a payments...
The Chart Pack summarises macroeconomic and financial market trends in Australia and provides some information about developments for our main trading partners. The graphs in the Chart Pack are updated monthly. For more information about the source data for the Chart Pack graphs, see Data Availability. The Reserve Bank also publishes extensive statistical data on our website.
Browse the left-hand navigation to choose the graph subject category. You can then view or download the graphs individually.
- Financing conditions and the housing market. Council members discussed trends in credit and recent developments in the housing market. Growth in housing credit remains subdued overall, with credit to investors particularly weak. Owner-occupier loan commitments and housing turnover in Sydney and Melbourne have picked up, suggesting that a strengthening in credit growth is likely. Mortgage lending standards have been broadly unchanged recently. Overall, near-term risks related to the housing market have lessened as housing market conditions nationally have improved. Members discussed the potential for the current weakness in apartment construction to place upward pressure on prices in some cities over time unless construction picks up. They also discussed the tight credit conditions for small businesses and the reduced risk appetite by many lenders for lending to small business. Responsible lending. Members discussed ASIC's plans to release updated guidance on responsible...
Release date: 2 December 2019
Preliminary estimates for November indicate that the index decreased by 3.5 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after decreasing by 6.6 per cent in October (revised). The non-rural subindex decreased in the month, while the rural and base metals subindices increased. In Australian dollar terms, the index decreased by 3.7 per cent in November.
Over the past year, the index has decreased by 5.0 per cent in SDR terms, led by lower coal, LNG and alumina prices. The index has increased by 0.2 per cent in Australian dollar terms.
Consistent with previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal and LNG export prices are being used for the most recent months, based on market information. Using spot prices for the bulk commodities, the index decreased by 3.1 per cent in November in SDR terms, to be 8.1 per cent...
Thank you for the invitation to address this year's Annual Dinner of the Australian Business Economists. This is the fifth time I have had the privilege of joining you. Thank you for having me back.
One recurring theme of my talks over the years has been the likelihood that interest rates will remain low for an extended period – certainly, much lower, on average, than before the global financial crisis.
This theme remains highly relevant today. As I discussed in the Sir Leslie Melville lecture at the ANU a month ago, low interest rates are not a temporary phenomenon. Rather, they are likely to be with us for some time and are the result of some powerful global factors that are affecting interest rates everywhere.
Given this assessment, it is not surprising that there is a lot of discussion internationally about the use of so-called ‘unconventional’ monetary policies. People are rightly asking: if interest rates are going to stay low and be...
Over much of the past three years, employment has grown at a healthy annual pace of 2½ per cent. This has been faster than we had expected, particularly so, given economic growth was slower than we had expected. Employment growth has also been faster than the working-age population has been growing. As a result, the share of the Australian population employed is around its all-time high, which is a good outcome. Normally, we would have expected this strong employment growth to lead to a decline in the unemployment rate. But the unemployment rate has turned out to be very close to what we had expected and has moved sideways around 5¼ per cent for some time now.
So what is going on here? Strong employment growth but little change in the unemployment rate means that the strength in labour demand has been met by strong growth in labour supply. This increase in labour supply has come from more people joining the labour force and from some of those...
Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that growth in Australia's major trading partners had slowed over the past year from above-trend growth in 2017 and the first half of 2018. The slowing had been led by a decline in trade and investment growth, but recent indicators suggested that this weakness had begun to spill over to the services sector in some countries. Despite this, in major advanced economies employment growth had remained above growth in working-age population, but had eased, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Overall, labour market conditions remained tight but inflation remained below central banks' targets.
Growth in Australia's major trading partners was forecast to be around 3½ per cent in 2019 and 2020. These forecasts had been revised down a little since the August meeting, partly because the US–China trade and technology disputes had escalated over the previous three months. Members noted that the...
Today I am going to talk about mortgage arrears. Arrears are an important indicator of the financial health of households and so have implications for our assessment of current economic conditions and the economic outlook. They clearly are also an important indicator of the financial health of those writing mortgages, be it banks or non-banks. I will draw on material published in the October Financial Stability Review and a speech given by my colleague Jonathan Kearns.
The mortgage arrears rate, at 1 per cent, is low by both historical and international standards. Arrears in the US peaked at around 10 per cent in the financial crisis. Non-performing loans currently pose little risk to the health of financial institutions. This is not surprising in an environment where the unemployment rate is low and interest rates have been declining. Nonetheless, the arrears rates have been increasing steadily over recent years to the highest it has been...
The Statement on Monetary Policy sets out the Bank's assessment of current economic conditions, both domestic and international, along with the outlook for Australian inflation and output growth. A number of boxes on topics of special interest are also published. The Statement is issued four times a year.
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