Speaker of the US House of Representatives, and the most (in)famous US tourist at present, Nancy Pelosi says the House will vote on and pass the Act on Friday. The passing of the Act is a done deal, the opposition party do not have the numbers in the House to obstruct it.

The Act was passed in the upper house over the weekend:

The US dollar was soft in the hours before the decision and one tipoff that traders had noticed is that the White House -- unlike recent releases -- hadn't released a statement downplaying CPI before the release. Maybe that's a coincidence but maybe it was a tell.

In any case, the data was lower than expected and the dollar cratered. The initial move lower barely bounced before a second leg of selling hit as traders scoured the data and failed to find any details that pointed to a rebound next month.

USD/JPY was a huge mover, falling to 132.90 from 134.85 immediately and then grinding lower late in Europe down to a low of 132.04. Bids at the figure finally held and it slowly made its way back to 132.90 late.

EUR/USD broke out of its three-week range like a bullet, hitting 1.0368 on the second wave of USD selling but what had looked like the euro kicking the door down later turned into a mushy break as it sagged back to 1.0300 late.

The dollar did get a...

The data agenda ahead is not of much interest. There is data from Australia for consumer inflation expectations. These have run away to the topside. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be wary of such expectations becoming entrenched. The drop in petrol (gasoline) prices should be reflected in today's result though, helping to drag the number down a little. Regardless, the RBA is on a rate hike path, a50bp move higher for the cash rate is expected at their next meeting, September 6.

Also on the calendar today, not shown in the pic, is GDP data from Singapore for Q2 2022, due at 0000 GMT:

The Nasdaq is still -20.5% from the all time high from last November and -17.64% from the end of year. However, it is up 21.7% from the June low as well.

The weak US dollar longs were shaken out by today's unexpectedly soft CPI but strong overall risk appetite has some in the market re-thinking. If stocks can rally day after day, maybe that's a sign the Fed can afford to hike further?

The Nasdaq hasn't let up at all and is higher by 2.5% while the S&P 500 is up 1.8%.

The EURUSD rallied strongly after the tamer CPI data, and ran up to a key resistance swing area between 1.03395 and 1.03657. The high price reached 1.0367 and backed off.

The move to the downside has now moved down to retest a key break level from this morning. That break was the high price from last week along with the 50% of the move down from June 27 high at 1.02829 to 1.0293. That area defined the topside of the "Red Box" that had confined the pair for 18 days until today's break.

The US yields have seen a bounce back to the upside which helped to slow the USDJPY fall and has led to bounce higher.

Looking at the 10 year yield, the level moved back above the 100 hour MA at 2.763% after dipping to an intraday low at 2.675% soon after the data release. Looking at the hourly chart, the yield moved below a swing level at 2.706% and the 50% of the move up from the August low at 2.691%, but could not sustain momentum below those levels and traders started to lean at the 2.706% before marching above the 100 hour MA again.

It was another volatile day in oil trading.

WTI crude oil fell as low as $87.66 in early US trading before reversing higher to trade at a peak of $92.43. After some moderate selling in the final 30 minutes of trading, it settled at $91.93. That's the highest settlement in a week but crude remains near the lowest levels since February.

It's way too early for the Fed to be steering market expectations ahead of the Sept 21 FOMC but because of the leak ahead of the June meeting, everything that the WSJ's Nick Timiraos writes is essential reading.

His latest is titled 'Fed likely to want further evidence of inflation slowdown' and says it:

There were some big market moves after today's CPI report but they would have been even bigger if a Fed decision was closer. As it stands, we get another full slate of economic data before the Sept 21 FOMC.

CIBC is sticking with a 50 basis point hike for September and the market is now leaning that direction as well. Implied odds are at 62%, up from about 30% before CPI.

In this video, I take a look at Bitcoin from a technical perspective after the "risk-on" runnup seen in trading today after the better than expected CPI report. What topside hurdles need to be broken to keep the bullish momentum going? What level do we not want to see broken on the downside if the buyers are to keep the momentum going?

I show those levelsa and explain why.

In this video, I take a look at Bitcoin from a technical perspective after the "risk-on" runnup seen in trading today after the better than expected CPI report. What topside hurdles need to be broken to keep the bullish momentum going? What level do we not want to see broken on the downside if the buyers are to keep the momentum going?

I show those levelsa and explain why.

The Atlanta Fed Q3 estimate for growth jumped to 2.5% from 1.4% last. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.5 percent on August 10, up from 1.4 percent on August 4. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and third-quarter real government spending growth increased from 1.8 percent to 2.7 percent, -0.3 percent to 0.2 percent, and 1.4 percent to 1.7 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.35 percentage points to 0.30 percentage points.

The GBPUSD moved up toward the swing hi from August 1 at 1.22929. The high price reached 1.2276 and has backed off. The current level is trading at 1.2237 which is near the bottom of a swing area between 1.2237 and 1.22446. That is a close support. A break below would have traders looking toward the swing highs from August 3 and August 4 near 1.22808.

So traders leaned against the 100 day moving average above and are leaning against MAs on the bottom. Traders will also be on alert for a shove in either direction. Him him him

Looking at the hourly chart, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the low today comes in at 1.0296. That is just above the swing hi going back to August 1 at 1.0293. I would think that traders would not want the price to return back below those levels. As a result it represents a key risk level on the downside. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish.

All risk assets are surging today on signs of a peak in US inflation but crypto is particularly strong and ethereum is leading the way.

Market participants are increasingly enthusiastic about the changes coming to ethereum that will lower energy consumption by 99%.