- USD/JPY is trading back above 133.20 as I update after lows during the session circa 132.62. Apart from the yen, major FX traded in very small ranges in Asia post-CPI data in the US on Wednesday. What movement we did have was in the form of continued retraces of the sharp USD weakness witnessed after the data. A market holiday in Japan thinned out trading a little. When Japan is closed physical US bond trading in the APac region grinds to a halt. This does not always result in lacklustre forex moves but today it was quiet indeed.
This shadow banking sector has been smashed by mounting losses on loans to the property sector. Which is hardly surprising. Contagion.
The National Audit Office has been inspecting the books of 20 trust firms, including the biggest 5.
Bitcoin rose following the US CPI data on Wednesday, as the USD fell and equities rallied.
BTC/USD is extending its gain during the session here. I'm not seeing any specific news on it.
- USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD/CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.The previous close was 6.7245
Survey from the Melbourne Institute.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will be a bit more content to see these slip. The next meeting is September 6 and a 50bp rate hike is baked in.
- many retailers overstocked their inventories, GS estimates currently $20 bn—this translates to 3% of annual retail spending and 0.5% of total core goods spending. If all that excess inventory were put on sale at a markdown of 20% it would only translate to 0.1% of downward pressure on inflation
- revises 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3% to 4% (previous forecast: 3%–5%)says the outlook for some outward-oriented sectors in Singapore economy has weakenedsays external demand outlook for Singapore's economy has weakened compared to 3 months ago
- Core CPI was up by just 0.3% m/m which was softer than expected and ends or at least suspends a string of firmer readings that often surprised higherHeadline CPI was weaker than expected partly because of core but also because gasoline prices fell by more than anticipated in seasonally adjusted terms (-7.7% m/m). it’s premature to judge whether the Fed’s next move in September will be a 50 or 75 point hike given that we’ll get one more PCE reading which is the Fed’s preferred measure, one more CPI print and another jobs report before then plus the fact that September often carries its own surprises along the way. At this point, I think a reasonable perspective would lean heavily against the view that one softish CPI print would dissuade the Fed’s hawks. They may trade-off the one CPI downside surprise against the ongoing tightening in the US job market and concern that wage pressures present the risk of more persistent inflation. In any event, I continue to think we’re dealing...
- China’s economy continues to face the same set of challenges including COVID-19 resurgences and perhaps even greater pessimism in the domestic property market as well as high global energy and food prices
The moves in gold, after the initial euphoria wore off, are indicative of what is still to come from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (spoiler, eye-watering rate hikes).
IMHO anyway ...
- "We remain constructive on CHF and long CHF/NOK. Over time, we think fundamental factors continue to point to further CHF strength. The SNB should persist with its preference for a stronger currency amid strong and more persistent inflation, euro area growth risks are asymmetrically skewed to the downside, and recessionary concerns around the world are rising, with the BoE having just warned of a prolonged recession," MS notes. "This points to inflows for safe-haven currencies like CHF and, over time, we continue to see EUR/CHF moving lower to 0.95. USD/CHF should continue to be driven more by the broader USD trend," MS adds.
- China's response to Pelosi trip to Taiwan has led Biden administration officials to rethink potential tariff movesBiden administration has set aside, for now, the option of scrapping some tariffs on China or investigating adding moreBiden has not made a final decision on tariff issue
The housing market in NZ has taken a hit from rising interest rates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was very early to the inflation-busting rate hike game. (And for clarity, the hikes have not busted inflation yet).
- While searching a house in England for a known car thief, UK police officers noticed something odd about a toy bear - it was breathing, and the crook was stuffed inside.
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