This may look like a prediction of inflationary overheating, but actually not so much. GS believes we have a 6% output gap, with potential growing ~2% a year. So 8 percent growth only brings us roughly back to capacity by end 2021 2/
Paul Krugman Sun 14 Mar 2021 13:19

Private-sector economic forecasters — who are, in practice, very Keynesian — are incredibly optimistic. GS is predicting full Morning in America growth 1/ https://t.co/UcB2Gw6l2S
Paul Krugman Sun 14 Mar 2021 13:19

RT @FareedZakaria: On GPS, @ 10am & 1pm ET Sunday on @CNN: Now that Pres. Biden has signed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into law, what wil…
Paul Krugman Sun 14 Mar 2021 12:54

Still kind of rubbing my eyes over how fast the vaccinations are now going. https://t.co/9n9D4J7WfL
Paul Krugman Sun 14 Mar 2021 12:34

RT @rortybomb: Krugman does nail this right here. The new child allowance ends the 'end of welfare as we knew it' but without going back to…
Paul Krugman Sat 13 Mar 2021 17:33

Lots of talk about rising interest rates, understandably if you're focused on short-term market movements. But step back a bit: the 10-year real rate is -.6%, compared with ~0 on the eve of the pandemic — despite massive fiscal stimulus
Paul Krugman Sat 13 Mar 2021 13:48

Coming up https://t.co/Dhuxe5gR25
Paul Krugman Sat 13 Mar 2021 13:33

This comes after predictions of disaster from the Trumpists. (Yes, I made a bad call when Trump won in 2016; I retracted it and apologized three days later). So what will they do? We already know the answer: they'll do what they did in the 1990s 3/
Paul Krugman Sat 13 Mar 2021 13:23

RT @imillhiser: Today in the alternative universe where Republicans won at least one of the Georgia senate seats, McConnell just offered to…
Paul Krugman Sat 13 Mar 2021 11:23

RT @nytopinion: . @PaulKrugman responded to readers commenting on his column "Ending the End of Welfare as We Knew It." Join the conversati…
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 17:47

I'm not saying that we should sugar-coat things, pretending that policies are better than they are. But if you really want to make a positive difference, you should accept imperfect policies that make other good things politically possible. 7/
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 17:37

So even if you think that what we REALLY need is massive infrastructure investment, you have to be willfully blind not to realize that those stimulus checks were and are an integral part of making such investment possible 6/
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 17:37

But it's also immensely popular. Indeed, without the promise of those checks Dems wouldn't have taken the Senate seats in GA, and their whole agenda would be dead in the water. And it would be politically catastrophic to renege on that promise 5/
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 17:32

Case in point: sending $1400 checks to most Americans. There is an economic case for that policy — it refreshes some of the population other policies can't reach — but it's clearly inefficient both as aid and as stimulus 4/
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 17:32

In fact it's not sustainable even if good policy is all you care about, because we have so much polarization and so many political figures acting in bad faith that it's irresponsible not to consider the political implications of your recommendations 3/
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 17:27

You still sometimes hear economists, even those with a public intellectual role, say that their job starts and ends with giving the best possible policy advice; it's up to politicians what they do with it. But in America 2021 that's not a sustainable position 2/
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 17:27

I just debated Larry Summers, again, over overheating and all that, for Fareed Zakaria. Not going to try and spin it; watch for yourself. Also, debating people who are neither idiots nor political hacks is weird, and will take getting used to. But I do have some meta thoughts 1/
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 17:27

At one level this is all ancient history. But the myth of Reaganomics is still a significant zombie, eating the brains of people who should know better 5/
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 14:47

The one thing that really changed under Reagan was inequality, which soared 4/ https://t.co/yDSpcRD7I4
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 14:47

The great productivity slowdown of the early 1970s didn't end under Reagan. To the extent there was any revival, it took place from 1995-2005 3/ https://t.co/yz2KmetTpy
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 14:42

RT @nytopinion: The family benefits in the Biden relief plan aren't the return of welfare, @PaulKrugman writes, but they are the end of the…
Paul Krugman Fri 12 Mar 2021 01:22

RT @ThePlumLineGS: Now that Biden's package has passed, the White House will launch a massive campaign to highlight what's in it in "every…
Paul Krugman Wed 10 Mar 2021 22:46

So whatever you think of the economics, Biden and Schumer pulled off a political miracle, delivering a vastly bigger package than almost anyone thought possible. 2/
Paul Krugman Wed 10 Mar 2021 13:55

How big is the American Rescue Plan relative to expectations? I searched through past newsletters from the very smart team at Goldman Sachs, and found this just after the GA runoffs 1/ https://t.co/AEXD2U9hQP
Paul Krugman Wed 10 Mar 2021 13:50

RT @nytopinion: A large program of public investment, @PaulKrugman writes, would rebuild our crumbling infrastructure and pull the economy…
Paul Krugman Tue 09 Mar 2021 01:03