• The U.S. budget deficit narrowed to $2.7 trillion during the first 11 months of the fiscal year, with the gap between spending and revenue declining as the recovery from a pandemic-induced slump boosted taxes. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 15 Sep 2021 13:30

    The U.S. budget deficit narrowed to $2.7 trillion during the first 11 months of the fiscal year from $3 trillion in the same period a year earlier, with the gap between spending and revenue declining as the recovery from a pandemic-induced slump boosted taxes.

    Outlays for the 11 months through August rose 4%, to a record $6.3 trillion, the Treasury Department said Monday. Spending has been boosted by pandemic-related costs that included tax credits, expanded unemployment compensation, emergency small-business loans and stimulus checks to households, but Treasury officials have said such outlays are generally declining.

  • Prices have eased for autos and hotel rates and airline fares declined in August from July. Economists anticipate that broader, longer-lasting inflationary pressures will emerge in coming quarters. Link https://t.co/QA410jgloY
    Real Time Economics Wed 15 Sep 2021 13:00

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  • The National Association of Realtors says the Justice Department’s withdrawal from an earlier settlement is a breach of the law Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 15 Sep 2021 01:39

    WASHINGTON—The main trade association for real-estate agents on Monday sought to block a broad Justice Department investigation of industry practices, after an antitrust settlement between the two sides fell apart this summer.

    The move underscores the growing pressure the residential real-estate industry is experiencing, mainly over the estimated 5% to 6% commissions that agents still receive from many home sales despite technology-driven shifts in house hunting and other changes.

  • Treasury says revenue rose 18% to a record $3.6 trillion from October through August compared with a year earlier Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 15 Sep 2021 00:39

    The U.S. budget deficit narrowed to $2.7 trillion during the first 11 months of the fiscal year from $3 trillion in the same period a year earlier, with the gap between spending and revenue declining as the recovery from a pandemic-induced slump boosted taxes.

    Outlays for the 11 months through August rose 4%, to a record $6.3 trillion, the Treasury Department said Monday. Spending has been boosted by pandemic-related costs that included tax credits, expanded unemployment compensation, emergency small-business loans and stimulus checks to households, but Treasury officials have said such outlays are generally declining.

  • Companies are delaying investments and cutting jobs as strict travel limits, especially in Asia, weigh on sectors from manufacturing to education Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 23:39

    The economic damage from Covid-19 travel restrictions is piling up, with more companies holding back on large investments or postponing decisions as border closures and visa delays stymie operations for longer than expected.

    The situation has been most acute in Asia, where governments, worried about the Delta variant, are refusing to lift restrictions that have limited travel for more than a year. China has kept its borders mostly shut since March 2020. Japan, Australia, Singapore and other countries are still blocking borders or requiring lengthy quarantines for visitors.

  • Eurozone consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in almost a decade in August, up 3% on a year earlier Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 22:34

    LONDON—Inflation in the eurozone hit its highest level in almost a decade in August amid signs that shortages of semiconductors and other important manufacturing components are pushing up the prices paid by consumers.

    Broad consumer prices were 3% higher in August than a year earlier, a pickup from the 2.2% rate of inflation recorded in July and the sharpest rise since November 2011.

  • As rich nations contemplate a future of labor shortages and possible economic stagnation, demographic decline is already a reality in the small Eastern European nation of Latvia Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 21:34

    DAGDA, Latvia—For nearly three decades, Inara Frolova, a local civil servant, has recorded just how fast this remote district on Latvia’s eastern border has dwindled. When her three brothers, her first husband and her son left for Ireland, she wrote it down. When births hit their lowest-ever level last year, she entered the data.

    This year, with its population at roughly half of what it was in 1990, Dagda County was deemed too small to support a local government and merged with a nearby county.

  • The official poverty rate in 2020 was 11.4%, the first increase after five years of declines. A broader poverty measure actually fell last year to 9.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from 2019. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 20:34

    American incomes fell last year despite increased government aid tied to the Covid-19 pandemic that prevented millions from falling into poverty, Census Bureau figures released Tuesday show.

    The new data, in an annual assessment of the nation’s financial well being, offers insight into how households fared during the pandemic’s first year and arrives as Washington debates how much more to spend to bolster the economy during the worst public health crisis in a century.

  • The U.S. budget deficit narrowed to $2.7 trillion during the first 11 months of the fiscal year, with the gap between spending and revenue declining as the recovery from a pandemic-induced slump boosted taxes. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 19:39

    The U.S. budget deficit narrowed to $2.7 trillion during the first 11 months of the fiscal year from $3 trillion in the same period a year earlier, with the gap between spending and revenue declining as the recovery from a pandemic-induced slump boosted taxes.

    Outlays for the 11 months through August rose 4%, to a record $6.3 trillion, the Treasury Department said Monday. Spending has been boosted by pandemic-related costs that included tax credits, expanded unemployment compensation, emergency small-business loans and stimulus checks to households, but Treasury officials have said such outlays are generally declining.

  • “Real” wages—pay adjusted for inflation—for the lowest-earning tier of workers fell 0.5% in August from a year earlier. That contrasts with 2.1% annual growth in the two years before the pandemic. Link https://t.co/C5BdyfzX0R
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 19:04

    This should be the best of times for low-wage workers, as pandemic-induced labor shortages force employers to sharply raise pay. Yet for many, it doesn’t feel that way, because those same disruptions have pushed inflation to near its highest rate in over a decade.

    Troy Sutton, age 61, lost a job as a custodian at the start of the pandemic in 2020 that paid $12 an hour, and he spent more than a year unemployed. This past summer, he landed a job as a custodian at the University of Pennsylvania he said pays $18 or more an hour.

  • Workers aren’t ready to commute, posing a challenge for reopening big-city offices Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 18:24

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  • RT @NickTimiraos: Federal relief in the Cares Act lifted millions of Americans out of poverty last year The official poverty rate rose by…
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 18:19
  • House Democrats detailed their proposed tax increases on Monday, calling for raising the corporate tax rate to 26.5% from 21%. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 18:09

    We are delighted that you'd like to resume your subscription.

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  • SEC Chairman Gary Gensler told lawmakers that he was taking a hard look at cryptocurrency trading platforms and firms that pay to execute individual investors’ trades while also calling for more funding for the regulatory agency. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 17:44

    WASHINGTON—Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler told lawmakers Tuesday that he was taking a hard look at cryptocurrency trading platforms and firms that pay to execute individual investors’ trades while also calling for more funding for the regulatory agency.

    Mr. Gensler appeared before the Senate Banking Committee to outline a far-reaching policy agenda that would shake up some Wall Street firms’ business models and require heftier disclosures from public companies.

  • Americans are expecting a record surge in inflation over the next few years, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 17:29

    Americans’ expectations of future inflation hit a record high last month, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, potentially challenging the central bank’s confidence that inflation pressures will ebb over time.

    In its August Survey of Consumer Expectations, the bank said Monday that respondents see inflation a year from now at 5.2%, up from expectations of 4.9% last month. Three years from now, it is expected to be at 4%, up from the 3.7% expected in July. Both readings mark record-high readings for data that goes back to 2013.

  • “I’m making more money...But I don’t see it because I’m paying more money for stuff now.” Low-wage workers are getting sharp raises. Inflation is eating them up. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 16:49

    This should be the best of times for low-wage workers, as pandemic-induced labor shortages force employers to sharply raise pay. Yet for many, it doesn’t feel that way, because those same disruptions have pushed inflation to near its highest rate in over a decade.

    Troy Sutton, age 61, lost a job as a custodian at the start of the pandemic in 2020 that paid $12 an hour, and he spent more than a year unemployed. This past summer, he landed a job as a custodian at the University of Pennsylvania he said pays $18 or more an hour.

  • The 10% rise in national asking rents in August is the highest on record, helped by more young workers returning to cities Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 16:04

    Despite a yearlong national eviction ban and continuing pandemic, it has rarely been a better time to be a big apartment-building landlord.

    National asking rents rose 10.3% in August, measured on an annual basis, according to Real Page, a rental-management software company, which analyzed more than 13 million professionally managed apartments. That marked the first double-digit increase in the more than 20 years this data has been collected, and in several hot cities the rent increases were much greater than the national figure.

  • Fewer than 2,000 filers paid the estate tax in 2020. Democrats are proposing changes that would likely increase that number. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 15:49

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  • Prices have eased for autos and hotel rates and airline fares declined in August from July. Economists anticipate that broader, longer-lasting inflationary pressures will emerge in coming quarters. Link https://t.co/juaHsdctUS
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 15:29

    Inflation cooled slightly in August but remained strong, as a surge in Covid-19 infections slowed economic growth and pandemic-related shortages of labor and supplies continued to drive up prices.

    The Labor Department said last month’s consumer-price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in August from July, slower than the 0.5% one-month increase in July, and down markedly from June’s 0.9% pace. Prices eased for autos, with used vehicle prices dropping sharply, and hotel rates and airline fares declined in August from July.

  • Median household income was $67,500 in 2020, down 2.9% from the prior year, as the U.S. dealt with the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 14:28

    American incomes fell last year as the U.S. dealt with the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, the Census Bureau said Tuesday.

    Median household income was $67,500 in 2020, down 2.9% from the prior year.

  • Sen. Chris Dodd (D., Conn.) and former Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.), the main sponsors of the 2010 financial-regulatory legislation that bears their names, want President Biden to reappoint Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to a second term atop the central bank Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 13:58

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  • Consumer prices cooled in August but still rose 5.3% from a year before as supplies and labor continued to drive up prices. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 14 Sep 2021 12:43

    Consumer prices cooled in August, but still rose 5.3% from a year before as supplies and labor continued to drive up prices.

    The consumer price index measures what consumers pay for goods and services, including groceries, clothes, restaurant meals, recreation and vehicles.

  • Iran has resumed fuel exports to Afghanistan, with the Taliban now providing critical dollars to the sanctions-crushed Iranian economy from its lucrative narcotics operations. Link
    Real Time Economics Thu 26 Aug 2021 16:07

    Iran this week restarted fuel exports to Afghanistan that had been disrupted by fighting between the Taliban and forces under the now deposed Afghan government, traders in Tehran and former U.S. officials say, with the Taliban now providing critical dollars to the sanctions-crushed Iranian economy from its lucrative narcotics operations.

    The burgeoning trade relationship between Tehran and the Taliban threatens to undermine key U.S. pressure campaigns against both.

    Iran has been cut off from the global market for the greenback by U.S. sanctions, and the Taliban’s willingness to trade with their neighbor gives Iran rare access to U.S. dollars it needs to import essential goods and bolster its depreciated currency.

    Meanwhile, the arrangement enables the Taliban, who are also cut off from trade and finance by international sanctions, to purchase basic commodities vital to keeping the ailing Afghan economy running.

    Iranian traders, who had been...

  • Jobless claims ticked up slightly but remained near a pandemic low last week, a sign the job-market recovery remains on sound footing despite uncertainty surrounding the Delta variant of Covid-19. Link
    Real Time Economics Thu 26 Aug 2021 15:02

    The number of workers applying for and receiving unemployment benefits has reached pandemic lows over the past month, a sign the job-market recovery remains on sound footing despite uncertainty surrounding the Delta variant of Covid-19.

    Unemployment claims edged up to 353,000 last week from a revised 349,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility in the weekly figures, fell to 366,500 last week, a new pandemic low.

    Applications for unemployment benefits have trended downward this year after exceeding 900,000 in January. They have continued to decline since late July, when a surge in the Delta variant began clouding the economic outlook and led some local governments and businesses to reinstate restrictions on activity. Claims are down about 9% from the last week of July.

    “Even with the spread of the Delta variant, many people who are vaccinated feel more comfortable doing things...

  • South Korea has become the first developed economy in Asia to raise interest rates since the beginning of the pandemic Link
    Real Time Economics Thu 26 Aug 2021 14:37

    South Korea became the first developed economy in Asia to raise interest rates since the beginning of the pandemic, a signal that policy makers see rising household debt and inflation as a bigger threat to the economy than the resurgence of the virus driven by the Delta variant.

    The Bank of Korea on Thursday increased the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate by 0.25 percentage point to 0.75% from its historically low 0.50% that had been in place since May 2020. It said the country’s economy was continuing to recover and kept this year’s growth outlook unchanged at around 4%.

    The bank’s move was being closely watched, as policy makers weighed measures to curb inflation against the threat posed to economies by the rapidly spreading Delta variant. A resurgence of the virus in countries with little protection from vaccines has disrupted supply chains, just as the export boom that has driven the recoveries of some countries is showing signs of slowing.

    South...

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