In Review is a new, monthly email that highlights the latest work from the New York Fed. Each edition will include our monthly data releases, speeches by New York Fed senior officers, information on past and upcoming outreach and education programs and important research from our Liberty Street Economics blog.

Play the video to learn more and sign up on the right.

Business activity continued to increase significantly in the region’s service sector, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August 2021 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell fourteen points to 27.8, pointing to a slower pace of growth than the record-setting pace of the prior few months. The business climate index came in at around zero, indicating that firms generally viewed the business climate as normal for this time of year. Employment levels and wages continued to rise at a solid clip. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes remained elevated. Capital spending increased slightly, and firms expected to increase capital spending significantly in the coming months. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve, with the index for future employment holding near its record high, though optimism was lower than last month.

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Note: Survey responses were collected between August 2 and August 9.

In an earlier version of the PDF of the August report linked below, the recession shading in the chart was incorrect. The PDF has now been updated.

Download the full report 

Business activity continued to expand in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though growth was significantly slower than last month’s record-setting pace. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-five points to 18.3. New orders increased modestly, and shipments grew slightly. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and inventories were somewhat higher. Employment and the average workweek increased modestly. Input prices continued to rise sharply, and the pace of selling price increases set another record. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, with...

How oil price fluctuations affect the U.S. economy will depend on whether supply or demand factors are driving them. Our statistical model examines correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to determine which forces best explain price movements. We update it each Monday at 3 p.m. (except during blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings). When federal holidays occur on a Monday, the report is delayed by twenty-four hours. Find detailed information about our methodology within the report.

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Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will host a town hall with educators and students on August 17, 2021 at 1:30 p.m. EDT. During the event, Chair Powell will respond to questions asked by participants who will join the event virtually from across the country.

The event will be broadcast at federalreserve.gov and YouTube. Viewers can follow the Federal Reserve Board on Twitter at @FederalReserve, on Facebook, and join in on the discussion by using the hashtag: #FedTownHall.

Event contact: Laura Shipley -- economic-education@frb.gov

Media contact: Joe Pavel -- joe.pavel@frb.gov or 202-452-2955

Businesses with no employees other than the owner often turned to personal funds in response to financial challenges during the pandemic. These nonemployers were less likely than employer firms to seek pandemic-related emergency funding and less likely to be approved.

The Economic Research Tracker is designed to increase the visibility and accessibility of the Bank's research. Aggregating posts from the Liberty Street Economics blog, this app features the insights and analysis of New York Fed economists in an easy-to-use interface that can be customized according to a user's preferences. Users can search the full catalog of LSE blog posts by economist or research topic, including Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Labor Economics and Household Finance. Now available for iPhone® and Android® devices.

Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.

The Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) is a group of private-market participants convened by the Federal Reserve Board and the New York Fed to help ensure a successful transition from U.S. dollar (USD) LIBOR to a more robust reference rate, its recommended alternative, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The ARRC is comprised of a diverse set of private-sector entities that have an important presence in markets affected by USD LIBOR and a wide array of official-sector entities, including banking and financial sector regulators, as ex-officio members. Read more

The Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) is a group of private-market participants convened by the Federal Reserve Board and the New York Fed to help ensure a successful transition from U.S. dollar (USD) LIBOR to a more robust reference rate, its recommended alternative, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The ARRC is comprised of a diverse set of private-sector entities that have an important presence in markets affected by USD LIBOR and a wide array of official-sector entities, including banking and financial sector regulators, as ex-officio members. Read more

Understand the importance of monetary policy and the Federal Reserve’s key responsibilities through a tour of planets that need guidance in stabilizing prices, increasing employment, and developing a healthy economy.

How oil price fluctuations affect the U.S. economy will depend on whether supply or demand factors are driving them. Our statistical model examines correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to determine which forces best explain price movements. We update it each Monday at 3 p.m. (except during blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings). When federal holidays occur on a Monday, the report is delayed by twenty-four hours. Find detailed information about our methodology within the report.

How oil price fluctuations affect the U.S. economy will depend on whether supply or demand factors are driving them. Our statistical model examines correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to determine which forces best explain price movements. We update it each Monday at 3 p.m. (except during blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings). When federal holidays occur on a Monday, the report is delayed by twenty-four hours. Find detailed information about our methodology within the report.

In Review is a new, monthly email that highlights the latest work from the New York Fed. Each edition will include our monthly data releases, speeches by New York Fed senior officers, information on past and upcoming outreach and education programs and important research from our Liberty Street Economics blog.

Play the video to learn more and sign up on the right.

Ruchi Avtar, Rajashri Chakrabarti, and Maxim Pinkovskiy

A critical risk during the COVID-19 pandemic has been the possibility of the hospital system becoming overwhelmed. COVID-19 not only has killed nearly 2 percent of people with confirmed infections but causes many more who contract it to develop severe complications that are potentially fatal if not treated in an intensive care unit (ICU). As ICU capacity is based on typical needs for intensive care before the pandemic, a surge of COVID-related ICU patients may leave no room for individuals requiring intensive care for other reasons—such as heart attacks—or may exceed the total ICU capacity to treat even COVID-19 patients. In this post, we investigate the extent to which members of different racial and ethnic groups faced different levels of hospital system stress during the “third wave” of COVID-19 in the winter of 2021, which, as the largest wave to hit the United States, briefly brought intensive care units...

The Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) is a group of private-market participants convened by the Federal Reserve Board and the New York Fed to help ensure a successful transition from U.S. dollar (USD) LIBOR to a more robust reference rate, its recommended alternative, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The ARRC is comprised of a diverse set of private-sector entities that have an important presence in markets affected by USD LIBOR and a wide array of official-sector entities, including banking and financial sector regulators, as ex-officio members. Read more

The Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) is a group of private-market participants convened by the Federal Reserve Board and the New York Fed to help ensure a successful transition from U.S. dollar (USD) LIBOR to a more robust reference rate, its recommended alternative, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The ARRC is comprised of a diverse set of private-sector entities that have an important presence in markets affected by USD LIBOR and a wide array of official-sector entities, including banking and financial sector regulators, as ex-officio members. Read more